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1.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rally for 2nd day, Apple jumps on tech tariff reprieve

2025-04-14 20:00:38 by Brett LoGiurato from Yahoo Finance

US stocks edged higher on Monday as investors focused on tech's temporary reprieve from President Trump's tariffs.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trimmed bigger gains to rise a healthy 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) also closed off its session high, up 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up around 0.7%, or more than 300 points. 

Trump and his top advisers have sowed confusion in recent days on the future of its tariffs on China and on specific sectors. Megacap tech companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) scored a significant victory over the weekend when it was revealed that the US had excluded smartphones, computers, and other consumer electronics from tariffs. 

But on Sunday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that those electronics would soon be covered under levies that he said would be separate from those imposed on specific countries. 

Trump himself added to the muddied message when he said in a lengthy Sunday post on social media that there was "no exception" for those products.

"We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations," he said.

But the initial reprieve broadly lifted the mood: Apple (AAPL) shares gained more than 2% during Monday’s session, as its smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices were set to benefit. Meanwhile, US automakers Ford (F) and GM (GM) stocks rose as Trump hinted he may also consider a carve out for upcoming auto tariffs.

Yet Wall Street remains braced for another week of potential tariff-fueled ups and downs. The major indexes had their best week since at least 2023 last week, though it came in anything but conventional fashion.

Traditional "safe-haven" assets have come in particular focus in recent days, as longer-term Treasury yields have surged while the US dollar has weakened against foreign currencies. Yields on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) fell below 4.36% Monday, while the US dollar (DX=F) fell.

Meanwhile, investors will continue to hear from companies this week on the early impact of the tariffs. Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) gained after the bank's profits jumped last quarter. 

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2.

2 different Wall Street strategists make same Forrest Gump reference explaining market's tariff response

2025-04-14 15:20:13 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Investor confusion amid tariff whipsaw has brought at least two Wall Street strategists to the same place: the Oscar-winning 1994 film Forrest Gump. 

"As Forrest Gump might have said, 'Tariffs are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get," Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni wrote in a note to clients on Sunday night. 

In her own note published Sunday, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina also referenced the film's famous line, writing that the upcoming first quarter earnings season "seems a little bit like a box of (potentially bittersweet) chocolates to us — we aren’t sure what we’re going to get."

The tariff headlines have been fast and furious since Donald Trump announced a wide span of reciprocal duties on April 2. 

The initial announcement prompted the worst week for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) since 2020. Then, on April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs, sending the S&P 500 up more than 9% for its best day since 2008.

Shifting headlines on China tariffs have been a mainstay of the market conversation in the days since Trump's "Liberation Day," with the overall reciprocal rate on imports from China standing at 145%, well above what many initially expected. 

Reporting this weekend suggested products such as smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives, computer processors, and memory chips would not be subject to the tariffs, providing a potential boost to tech giants Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).

But on Sunday, Trump pushed back against some of this reporting, saying there was no tariff exemption announced on Friday. 

Still, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note to clients on Sunday that Apple and other Big Tech companies are "in a much better spot" after the recent tariff news flow, though the industry likely isn't out of the woods yet. 

"The mass confusion created by this constant news flow out of the White House is dizzying for the industry and investors and creating massive uncertainty and chaos for companies trying to plan their supply chain, inventory, and demand," Ives wrote. 

Other strategists also expect the market's seesaws likely won't end until investors and companies can stop guessing what chocolate Trump pulls out out of his tariff box next.

A team of JPMorgan strategists led by head of global equity strategy Mislav Matejka wrote in a note on Monday that they'd likely be buyers of equities later in 2025 but that they'd first like to "see [tariff] newsflow settle."

In a note to clients on Sunday, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson said he expects the S&P 500 to be range-bound between 5,000-5,500 as "uncertainty remains high" in markets. 

"The equity market will likely remain in a wide trading range with high volatility until we have more certainty on the depth of the growth slowdown and the timing of a recovery," Wilson wrote.

Daniel Zuchnik via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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3.

Corporate earnings take center stage amid tariff turmoil: What to know this week

2025-04-13 20:29:58 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks ended last week higher after a turbulent week of fresh tariff headlines driving the market action.

But even after the S&P 500's (^GSPC) best week in over a year, the benchmark index is still down 6% since President Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) are off roughly 5% in the same period. 

This week, any incremental news on tariffs will be in focus. On Saturday news of exemptions on tariffs to China spread. Key products such as smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives and computer processors and memory chips were believed to not be subject to the tariffs, providing a potential boost to tech giants Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA). 

But on Sunday, Trump disputed that report, saying there was no tariff exemption announced on Friday. He wrote on Truth Social that those products are "subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff 'bucket."'

"We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations," Trump wrote. 

Quarterly financial reports from a slew of American corporates will also be top of mind for investors. Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Netflix (NFLX) are expected to provide updates. 

On the economic data front, investors will be closely tracking an update on monthly retail sales for March due out on Wednesday. 

Markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday. 

Tariff turns

Last Wednesday, Trump announced a 90-day pause on many "reciprocal" tariffs. Markets soared with the Nasdaq Composite rising over 12% for its second-best day on record. 

A day later, the White House confirmed that the total tariffs on China will now be 145% when accounting for the previous 20% duties already in place. The news came as a surprise to the market as President Trump had posted on Truth Social on Wednesday that the tariff rate charged to China would be 125%. The Nasdaq tumbled 4.3% in reaction.

Overall, the estimated effective tariff rate has moved from 22.5% on April 2 to 27% after the latest China levies, per the Yale Budget Lab.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

With the US's exact landing spot on tariffs remaining a moving target, Wall Street strategists believe that recent developments show tariff uncertainty will remain a key driver of market action in the weeks ahead. 

"Overall, we're kind of still where we were," Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company's chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. "Certainly, some of the tension has come off the boil, but there's still a lot of uncertainty out there. And to me, uncertainty means that people are more indecisive, CEOs and consumers alike. And that is the risk going forward in the next 90 days."

Consumer check

Trump's tariff back-and-forth has economists arguing the risks of recession have been rising. The fear is a combination of higher prices and that overall uncertainty about policy could slow US economic growth. The recession debate comes as economic growth data has been largely weaker than expected in the start to 2025.

A closely tracked consumer spending metric is set for release on Wednesday. The March retail sales report is expected to show sales increased 1.4% in March, up from a 0.2% increase the month prior. Excluding the volatile auto and gas, retail sales are expected to have grown 0.4%. 

"Big-ticket spending in March and April could see a surge as consumers pull forward those purchases before tariffs take a significant bite," the Wells Fargo economics team led by Jay Bryson wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "After that, however, we are likely to see a weak consumer spending performance in the second half of the year." 

'No guidance' 

First quarter earnings reports trickled in last week with uncertainty at the forefront of companies messaging. Delta Air Lines (DAL) pulled its full-year guidance amid what CEO Ed Bastian told Yahoo Finance is a "murky" outlook. 

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the economy is facing "considerable turbulence." Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that "uncertainty and anxiety about the future of markets and the economy are dominating client conversations." 

Strategists expect this to be a continued theme as earnings reports roll on this week. 

"It's the murkiest environment you could be in outside of a pandemic," Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon told Yahoo Finance. "We're kind of entering back into that sort of environment where there's probably going to be no guidance on the aggregate level, and companies ... they can't tell us what's going to happen." 

Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images

'A new negative'

A rapid bond market sell-off has added another headwind to the bull case for stocks. 

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) soared last week, logging its largest weekly gain since November 2021. At times over the past two years, a rise in the 10-year has become a key driver of stocks' decline, particularly when the yield rises above 4.5%. At the current moment, the massive spike and increase in rate volatility appears to be the main concern among investors. 

Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance the bond market action is a "new negative" in the market narrative.

"It kind of creates this new variable that could add to the volatility during the day, when there's not headline news," Kantrowitz said while also noting regularly scheduled Treasury auctions could now be stock market moving events.

He added, "Really simply, interest rates going up at a time where there's clearly a growth scare and a recession scare and a great deal of uncertainty is just bad news period."

And with a variety of factors potentially driving the sell-off, investors don't think the chaos in the bond market is ending anytime soon.

"We're going to be in an elevated volatility environment for the time being, which is one reason why we like raising some cash in our portfolios, just to generate some flexibility," David Rogal, lead portfolio manager of the BlackRock Total Return Fund (MAHQX), told Yahoo Finance. 

Weekly calendar

Monday

Economic data: New York Fed one-year inflation expectations, March (3.13% prior)

Earnings: Goldman Sachs (GS), FirstBank (FBK), MT&T Bank (MTB), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)

Tuesday

Economic data: Empire manufacturing, April (-10 expected, -20 prior); Import price index month over month, March (0% expected, +0.4% prior)

Earnings: Albertson's (ACI), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), PNC (PNC), Rent The Runway (RENT), United Airlines (UAL)

Wednesday

Economic data: Retail sales month over month, March (+1..4% expected, +0.2% prior); Retail sales excluding auto and gas month over month, March (+0.4% expected, +0.5% prior); Retail sales control group month over month, March (+0.5% expected, +1% prior); NAHB Housing Market Index, April (37 expected, 39 prior); Industrial production, month-over-month, March (-0.3% expected, +0.7% prior); MBA mortgage applications, April 11 (20% prior)

Earnings: Abbott (ABT), Alcoa (AA), ASML (ASML), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Progressive (PGR), Synovus (SNV), Travelers (TRV), US Bancorp (USB)

Thursday

Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ending April 12 (223,000 prior); Continuing claims, week ending April 5, (1.85 million prior); Housing starts, month-over-month March (-6.1% expected, 11.2% prior)

Earnings: Netflix (NFLX), Ally (ALLY), American Express (AXP), D.R. Horton (DHI), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Friday

Markets are closed for Good Friday.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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4.

The tariff uncertainty isn't getting any better in markets: Chart of the Week

2025-04-12 10:00:29 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

• The chart of the day

• What we're watching

• What we're reading

• Economic data releases and earnings

A whipsaw stretch of market action has featured the worst week for the S&P 500 since 2020, followed by the best day for the index since 2008.

Sifting through the ups and downs, the stock market narrative feels relatively unchanged. But if anything, the outlook might be getting cloudier. 

Since Trump announced the largest increase in US tariffs in a century, sending the stock market into a tailspin, the estimated effective US tariff rate has only increased. 

On Wednesday, Trump announced a 90-day delay on the lion's share of his "reciprocal" tariffs. But he also boosted tariffs on imports from China to 145%.

On April 3, the Yale Budget Lab had estimated the effective US tariff rate was 22.5%. Now, it estimates the US effective tariff rate is 27%. 

The movement in the chart above is at the center of the market's biggest problem right now: The rules of the game keep changing. For now, they're pushing the tariff rate higher. Later, they could push it lower. But to some extent, that's neither here nor there. The point is it's impossible to play a game if you don't know when the rules might change or goalposts might be moved.

So, for now, investors are left waiting to see which way the rules move next, leaving tariffs in the driver's seat of the stock market action.

Tariff uncertainty may have peaked, but as Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz noted in a video sent to clients on Friday, we have another "higher for longer" situation on our hands, with lower-but-still-uncomfortably-high rates and uncertainty.

"So we're likely to continue seeing a lot of uncertainty in market volatility because high tariffs is still a problem for the economy," Kantrowitz said.

For both markets and the economy, the issue with the latest updates is that an arbitrary 90-day delay is just that: a delay that postpones any conclusion and adds to the uncertainty that's crippling consumer and business confidence. The rising fear at the moment is tariffs could slow growth and push the US economy into recession. Renaissance Macro's head of economics Neil Dutta maintained his call for a "relatively brief" recession following Trump's tariff delay. 

"We have prolonged uncertainty, which will weigh on investment," Dutta wrote on Wednesday. "Uncertainty means consumers save more, which is [bad] for spending." 

Reuters / Reuters

BNP Paribas chief US economist James Egelhof told Yahoo Finance that further tariff negotiation is the key to the US economy avoiding recession, specifically the US and China dialing back their duties on one another. If that doesn't come in the next few weeks, Egelhof argues the risks of recession become "more and more real."

And once again, it's not the news, but the lack of it, he said.

"It's not just the level of tariffs, but the fact that they keep yo-yoing up and down, up and down, up and down. If you're running a business, the rules of the game changing so fundamentally on you so quickly makes it impossible or very difficult to invest." 

The stock market has been struggling with the same issue. As we've noted in the past, some have described stock valuations as really just a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow.

With the S&P 500 still down nearly 6% since Trump's "Liberation Day," there's no clear conviction that the story about tomorrow for markets has become incrementally better, at least not until the rules change again.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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5.

GLD Attracts a Strong $1.2 Billion Amid Market Pullback

2025-04-11 22:15:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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6.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 post best week since 2023 to cap wild week of tariff-fueled chaos

2025-04-11 20:02:22 by Brett LoGiurato from Yahoo Finance

US stocks turned higher on Friday to cap a chaotic week on Wall Street, as investors weighed the latest tariff-related developments in the trade war between the US and China. 

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.8% after seesawing earlier in the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.5%, about 600 points.  

Trump's fast-moving tariff policy has whiplashed stocks this week with historic gains during Wednesday's session but sharp losses on Thursday. 

In the end, the S&P 500 and Dow had their best weeks since 2023, while the Nasdaq's 7% weekly gain was its best since 2022.

Friday's session caps a chaotic week on Wall Street, with an increased focus on waning appetite for US assets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) climbed to its highest level since February, closing around 4.5%. Meanwhile, the dollar (DX=F) index tumbled below the 100 threshold, while gold (GC=F) hit a fresh record. 

Consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since 2022 in April as the impacts of President Trump's tariff policies remained top of mind, with consumers expecting inflation to surge in the year ahead.

China said Friday it will raise duties on imports of US goods to 125%, compared with the 84% previously planned, effective Saturday. The move is in direct response to Trump's ballooning "reciprocal" tariffs on China, the commerce ministry said, but it also suggested it will "ignore" any retaliatory US hikes in duties.

Read more: Live updates on Trump tariffs fallout

Big Wall Street banks got first quarter earnings season going in earnest on Friday, with results rolling in from JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and BlackRock (BLK). JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the US economy is going through "extreme turbulence."

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7.

Consumer sentiment craters further as inflation expectations soar to highest since 1981

2025-04-11 14:34:22 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Consumer sentiment tumbled further in April as the impacts of President Trump's tariff policies were top of mind.

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment hit its lowest level since June 2022. The index slid to a reading of 50.8, below the 57 seen last month and the 53.8 expected by economists.

Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again, as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7% — the highest since 1981 — from 4.9% the month prior. Just three months ago, consumers had expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year.

Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, climbed, too, hitting 4.4% in April, up from 4.1% in March. Also in the release, the expected change in unemployment hit its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

"Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year," University of Michigan Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release.

She added: "Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month."

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The survey was conducted between March 25 and April 8, meaning some responses were gathered after Trump's April 2 "reciprocal" tariff announcements. Notably, the survey doesn't reflect any reaction to Trump's 90-day pause on many of those levies and the escalation of China tariffs from Wednesday.

The souring sentiment among consumers also comes amid a broad stock market sell-off. Even with the S&P 500's (^GSPC) largest single-day rise since 2008 on Wednesday, the benchmark index is down more than 7% since April 2.

"Households appear to have come to the same conclusion as markets: the tariffs will do lasting damage to the US economy," Capital Economics assistant economist Harry Chambers wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

The tariff back-and-forth largely hasn't hit incoming inflation data yet. On Friday, a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that its "core" Producer Price Index (PPI) — which tracks the price changes companies see and excludes food and energy — rose 3.4% from the year prior, down from the 3.5% seen in March. The day before, the bureau's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed core prices rose 2.8% in March, the lowest yearly increase in core CPI in four years. 

Read more: $6 eggs and other inflation pain points: Here's where prices are rising

But just like consumers, economists are concerned that those March inflation readings could be some of the last positive reports before Trump's tariffs begin to impact the economic data and send inflation higher. 

Last week, JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli estimated Trump's initial tariff announcements could boost core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, to 4.4% by the end of 2025, as the US economy tips into recession. The February reading of core PCE showed prices increased by 2.8%.

Even after Trump announced broad tariff delays earlier this week, Feroli argued the outlook for the US economy is bleak. 

"The drag from trade policy is likely to be somewhat less than before, and thus the prospect of a recession is a closer call," Feroli wrote on Wednesday after the tariff announcement. "However, we still think a contraction in real activity later this year is more likely than not." 

DeFodi Images via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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8.

QQQ Pulls In $1.9 Billion of New Money During Historic Rally

2025-04-10 23:15:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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9.

Stocks pummeled as Nasdaq sinks 4%, Dow drops 1,000 points as new China tariffs loom over markets

2025-04-10 20:21:10 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as tariff headlines again weighed on markets just a day after the US stock market enjoyed one of its best days on record. 

The S&P 500 (GSPC) dropped almost 3.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tumbled 4.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 1,014 points, or 2.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX), in high focus amid bond market whiplash and its role in Trump's decision to reverse sweeping reciprocal tariffs, ended the day flat around 4.39%.

On Thursday, the White House confirmed total tariffs on China will now be 145% when accounting for the previous 20% duties already in place. The news surprised some investors, as President Trump had posted on Truth Social on Wednesday that the tariff rate charged to China would be 125%.

Stocks quickly hit session lows following these headlines. 

"The consistent move lower today is showing a large shadow of uncertainty remains," New York Stock Exchange market strategist Eric Criscuolo wrote in a mid-day trading update on Thursday afternoon.

Volatility in afternoon trade offered occasional signs of a recovery. But markets closing off session lows is cold comfort for a market that continues to be whipsawed — and pressured — by relentless tariff headlines.  

After a wild market party on Wednesday that saw the S&P 500 enjoy its largest one-day pop since 2008, stocks woke up a little groggy on Thursday. 

Futures tied to the major indexes were lower by 1% headed into the release of the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. 

That report showed "core" prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, increased 2.8% in March, their lowest annual increase in four years. The print came in significantly lower than Wall Street's forecast for a 3% increase. Since the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation began, a better-than-expected inflation reading has typically led to a rally in stocks.

Not in this market. 

Stocks started selling off at the open with losses only extending as the White House's confirmation that the US tariffs on China are now at 145%. 

In individual stocks, Wednesday's biggest winners became some of Thursday's biggest losers. Tesla (TSLA), which rallied over 20% on Wednesday, fell 7.3% Thursday. After soaring 18% the day prior, Nvidia (NVDA) fell 5.9% on Thursday. 

"Financial markets are being whipsawed and that's due to public policy being chaotic," Roth Capital Partners chief economist and macro strategist Michael Darda told Yahoo Finance. 

The latest tariff headlines highlighted two realities about the current market moment. 

For one, the overall tariff rate is still at its highest level in more than a century. The Yale Budget Lab now estimates the US effective tariff rate is 27%. After Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, the Yale Budget Lab had estimated the effective US tariff rate was 22.5%.

The announcement also reminded investors that Wednesday's celebration was over a "delay" of tariffs. 

Exactly what happens over the next 90 days remains to be seen, but tariffs disappearing from the discussion appears unlikely.

As Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company's chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday, "There's more uncertainty as we negotiate and figure out what actually happens towards the end of the next 90 days."

Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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10.

The stock market turmoil isn't over despite Trump's 90-day tariff delay

2025-04-10 17:43:12 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The markets are reeling once again — less than 24 hours after the S&P 500 had its best single-day rally since 2008 as investors cheered President Trump's 90-day tariff delay.  

The White House confirmed on Thursday morning that the total tariffs on China will now be 145% when accounting for the previous 20% duties already in place. The news came as a surprise to the market, as President Trump had posted on Truth Social on Wednesday that the tariff rate charged to China would be 125%.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Stocks hit their lows of the session on the news. The S&P 500 (GSPC) dropped as much as 6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) shed roughly 7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell over 2,100 points, or more than 5%. All three major averages recovered some losses in afternoon trading.

The reversal in markets reflects how many Wall Street strategists and economists are talking about the current state of play. On Wednesday, Trump removed the worst-case scenario for investors worried about tariffs slowing economic growth. But that move could just be temporary. It's only a "90-day pause." 

And as Thursday's quick shift in the tariff rate reminds investors, all that uncertainty around Trump's fiscal policy isn't going anywhere. 

"I still think this is more 'sell the rip' than 'buy the dip' [in stocks] — lots of problems continue but it is nice to see the President backing off and focusing on China," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note during Wednesday's rally. "The issue is prolonged uncertainty." 

Economists like Dutta are still discussing the US entering recession later this year. Economic growth data has slowed to start 2025, and the fear of businesses investing less as they wait to hear more information on tariffs still remains, casting a shadow over the outlook for stocks.

"Overall, we're kind of still where we were," Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company's chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. "Certainly, some of the tension has come off the boil, but there's still a lot of uncertainty out there. And to me, uncertainty means that people are more indecisive, CEOs and consumers alike. And that is the risk going forward in the next 90 days." 

ASSOCIATED PRESS

This means the outlook for publicly traded companies is likely still murky. Strategists don't believe the upcoming round of first quarter financial reports, which begins with large banks like JPMorgan (JPM) on Friday, will change that picture much. 

"One of the big concerns we have at the moment is that the upcoming reporting season seems a little bit like a box of (potentially bittersweet) chocolates to — we aren’t sure what we’re going to get," RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Thursday morning. 

Calvasina added that "ultimately stabilization in US equities will require stabilization and visibility into the earnings outlook." 

Zooming out, even after one of the best days in market history, the major indexes are still down on the year and well off their all-time highs. The S&P 500, for example, is down 11% this year and has sunk more than 15% since its most recent all-time high on Feb. 19. 

"We expect the road ahead to be bumpy and do not anticipate a quick trip back to new highs," Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. 

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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11.

S 500 Soars as Trump Pauses Tariffs on Trading Partners

2025-04-10 01:00:00 by Sumit Roy from etf.com

The S&P 500 had its best day in years on Wednesday, surging an eye-popping 9.5% after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day delay on tariffs for most of America’s trading partners.

For the index, it was the strongest one-day gain since October 2008, during the depths of the global financial crisis. The only comparable moves in recent memory came in March 2020, when the S&P 500 spiked by 9.3% on two separate occasions during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Exchange-traded funds tracking the three major indexes closed much higher on the day: the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) surged 9.3% to $99.10, the SPDR Dow Joned Industrial Average etF Trust (DIA) jumped 7.9% to $406.08, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) soared 12% to $466.

VOO Avoids Bear Market

The rally followed a steep four-day selloff in which S&P 500-tracking ETFs, such as VOO, plunged more than 12%. From its highs, the S&P 500 was down nearly 19%, just short of bear market territory.

Sentiment was deeply bearish, priming markets for a dramatic rebound on just a whiff of good news.

That news arrived midday Wednesday, when Trump announced he would hike tariffs on China to a whopping 125% but would pause increases for other countries.

Posting on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%” for countries that refrained from retaliating against the reciprocal tariffs the administration announced last week.

Trump said the pause would provide space to negotiate bilateral trade agreements, giving hope to investors who feared that the White House was committed to a permanent, across-the-board high-tariff regime. Many worried that Trump’s tariffs were part of a broader effort to restructure the U.S. economy to become more self-sufficient, regardless of economic pain.

Sentiment Shift

But Wednesday’s announcement signaled a potential shift. It showed Trump may be listening to business leaders who have been sounding the alarm about global supply chain disruptions and rising costs.

Still, the trade war is far from over. Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on China remains in place. And unless he reverses course there, too, the U.S. and China may be headed toward a full economic decoupling.

Investors should enjoy the relief rally but stay on high alert.

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12.

QQQ Sees $4.2 Billion Exodus as Tech Stocks Whipsaw

2025-04-09 21:00:07 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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13.

US stocks stage historic rally as Trump's 90-day pause takes worst case scenario 'off the table'

2025-04-09 20:31:45 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

President Trump on Wednesday catapulted US stocks to one of their biggest one-day rallies in the past century with a single post on social media. 

At 1:18 p.m. ET, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social there would be a 90-day pause on his steep "reciprocal" tariffs for non-retaliating countries.

"I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately," part of Trump's post read. 

The market exploded higher in reaction. 

When the closing bell rang on Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) had gained 9.5% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surged 12.1%. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 2,962 points, or 7.9%. 

It was the S&P 500's best day since 2008, while Nasdaq enjoyed its second-largest one-day rally on record, topped only by a 14% gain back in 2001. For the Dow, Wednesday's rally marked its largest since 2008. 

"Over the last few days it looked pretty glum, so I guess they say it was the biggest day in financial history," President Trump said on Wednesday from the White House lawn. "That's a pretty big change."

Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz wrote in a note Wednesday afternoon the market finally got a "dose of relief."

"While uncertainty isn’t headed to zero, the worst-case scenario is off the table most likely," Kantrowitz wrote.

Investors snatched up stocks and saved the questions for later.

Big Tech stocks led the charge higher, with Nvidia (NVDA) shares soaring over 18%, while Tesla (TSLA) added 22%.

Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) rose 15.3%, 14.8%, and 12%, respectively. 

And while investors embraced Trump's announcement, the president did escalate his trade war with China, increasing tariffs on imports from China to 125%. 

But even stocks that had traded lower in recent days on fears of China tariffs, like Apple, were higher on Wednesday. Shares of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) rose more than 5%, while JD.Com (JD) rallied over 6%.

Wednesday's reversal came as market chaos continued to boil late Tuesday and into overnight trading. 

The S&P 500 had swung roughly 6% or more peak-to-trough for three straight sessions through Tuesday, a phenomenon only seen in 1987, 2008, and 2020. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) jumped over 50 basis points over a three-day period, its most aggressive move since 2001. 

"The Stock and Bond Vigilantes signal that the Trump administration may be playing with liquid nitro," Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said in a research note published on Tuesday night. "Something may be about to blow up in the capital markets as a result of the stress created by the administration's trade war." 

When speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump admitted to watching the bond market, but didn't confirm that was the catalyst that made him roll back his tough tariff stance. 

"I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy," Trump said. 

The 10-year relented some after Trump's post, but yields still settled on Wednesday up about 14 basis points at 4.4%, the highest level since February. 

ASSOCIATED PRESS

In a sign of more whipsaw on Wednesday, events pushed one of the most closely followed economic research teams on Wall Street to call for recession and then later rescind that stance in less than 90 minutes. 

"We are reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth of 0.5% and a 45% probability of recession," Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Wednesday after Trump's latest tariff update. Earlier in the day, Goldman had joined peers at JPMorgan in forecasting a recession to hit the US economy this year. 

Hatzius' team, though, still maintained their view that the US economy faces a 45% chance of recession, a reminder that there is plenty left to still consider away from the one-day euphoria of Trump's tariff pause.

But at least on Wednesday, markets heard exactly what they've been waiting for from President Trump, and to Piper's Kantrowitz, this suggests the biggest headache for stock investors may be in the rearview. 

"Assuming no full 180-degree reversion on reciprocal tariffs," Kantrowitz wrote, "I believe the market lows are in."

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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14.

QQQ Close Confirms Bear Market; SPY Nears Its Own

2025-04-09 00:45:00 by Sumit Roy from etf.com

After another tumultuous day for stocks, the S&P 500 is once again knocking on the door of bear market territory—but it hasn’t crossed the threshold just yet.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) dropped 19% from its all-time closing high to Tuesday's close, just shy of the 20% drawdown typically used to define a bear market. 

On an intraday basis, SPY did dip more than 20% from its highs on Monday on Tuesday, but most market watchers aren’t calling it official without a close below that line.

QQQ Officially Enters Bear Market

Another widely-followed stock market benchmark, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, hasn't quite entered bear market territory, either. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) closed 16.5% below its highs on Tuesday. 

The Nasdaq-100, however, has already fallen into the bear’s grasp.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the tech-heavy index, was down 21.5% from its all-time closing high at Monday’s close, marking its first official bear market since 2022.

Source: etf.com data

However, this selloff looks quite different from the last one. Back in 2022, inflation was surging, interest rates were rising and markets were digesting the aftermath of pandemic-era supply chain chaos.

This time, the trigger is far more direct: President Donald Trump’s sweeping "reciprocal tariffs," which have upended investor sentiment and stoked fears of an all-out trade war.

In the last bear market, the S&P 500 ultimately dropped more than 25% from peak to trough, while the Nasdaq fell nearly 36%. Whether this downturn follows the same path remains to be seen.

Bulls Hold Out Hope

Some investors still hold out hope that the S&P 500 will avoid entering a full-blown bear market. Unlike past drawdowns driven by entrenched macroeconomic forces, this one is largely the result of political decision-making. 

If President Trump walks back his tariff threats, markets could breathe a sigh of relief. But if tensions escalate or if the economic cracks start to widen, a deeper selloff may be hard to avoid.

For now, all eyes are on Washington, D.C.

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15.

SPY Gains a Big $9.4 Billion; JAAA Waves Bye to $585 Million

2025-04-08 22:00:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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16.

Stocks haven't fallen this much since 2020. Their recovery could look different this time.

2025-04-08 21:26:45 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) just saw its worst week since COVID-19 brought the world economy to a halt in March 2020.

The benchmark index fell roughly 9% between March 31 and April 4 in a tariff-fueled sell-off. Similarly, as the pandemic spread throughout the United States, stocks lost 12.5% in five trading sessions in 2020. But market experts say stocks' recovery will look different this time around.  

While the S&P 500 returned to record highs just four months after the pandemic crash, experts don't think investors should expect such a quick comeback in 2025.

"At this point, you're beyond the swift rebound story," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta told Yahoo Finance. "This is a confidence shock, and so it's going to take a little bit of time to get that back."

The recent shock to markets has come from President Trump himself. With tariffs expected to hit their highest level in a century, consumers and businesses are feeling worse about the trajectory of the US economy. This has shaken investor confidence too, with multiple recent bids to rally off the market bottom failing in recent days. 

The largest difference between this shock and the one that came with the pandemic is that the president has a potential "off" switch for the chaos this time. But, at this point, Trump has shown few signs of relenting. 

"We need to see some evidence of some negotiation very, very quickly," Fundstrat global head of technical strategy Mark Newton told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday when discussing what could stop the market's free fall.

The recent market sell-off has been driven by fears that Trump's tariffs could halt US economic growth. Some argue they could even bring a recession.

In prior periods, like the pandemic, when economic growth has slowed, the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates. This time around, the Fed isn't expected to immediately come to the rescue. 

Tariffs are expected to slow growth but also boost inflation. With markets reeling last Friday amid a two-day 11% sell-off in the S&P 500, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was "too soon to say what the appropriate monetary policy response will be to these new policies."

Stocks could be 'dead money'

Markets have been moving on each incremental tariff headline as investors attempt to price in their impact. But for businesses, the process isn't that easy. Deciding how to operate with 54% tariffs on exports from China, only for them to be turned into 104% tariffs a few days later, provides an additional cloud of uncertainty that could slow corporate investment.

Add in the fact that the economy had already been cooling, and it creates what Dutta describes as an expected slow "slog" of a recovery. This comes in opposition to the "v-shape" recovery seen in 2020, when things bounced back quickly. 

At this stage, Dutta argues the market has worked to price in some level "of a growth scare" amid the 15% drawdown.

"The next leg of this will be if the scare becomes a reality," Dutta said. "If you go down 15%, you've already set the table for the fact that equities will probably be dead money for several months. It's going to take a while to get back to new highs. So there's been a lot of damage that's already been done."

To Dutta's point, about half of the Wall Street strategists that issue year-end forecasts tracked by Yahoo Finance now see the S&P 500 either ending flat or lower for full-year 2025.

A recovery this time around may have different winners and losers too. In 2020, ultra-low interest rates and stimulus-driven consumer spending led to some highfliers in the market, such as Peloton (PTON) and Etsy (ETSY). This time around, strategists aren't expecting a similar prevailing risk-on vibe.

"We're in a more normal monetary environment than we were five years ago," Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick said. "Things like earnings, things like cash flows matter, being able to service debt matters. People are just not willing to take flyers on things. And so that in and of itself is a very big difference."

ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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17.

Trump's China tariffs send stocks tumbling as 'FOMO' rally fades, S&P 500 closes at lowest level in a year

2025-04-08 20:35:06 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Early Tuesday morning, stocks looked poised to stage a "Turnaround Tuesday" rally as tariff negotiation hopes ran high. 

By the end of trading on Wall Street, those hopes had been dashed.

 "At the slightest whiff of good news, people come roaring back in because that FOMO [fear of missing out] never goes away," Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steven Sosnick told Yahoo Finance Tuesday morning as markets soared.

"It's always there. No one ever wants to miss a rally."

At session highs, all three of the major indexes were up more than 4%.

By the market close, all three indexes were in the red. 

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slid over 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.8%, shedding 320 points. Earlier in the session, the index had been up as much as 1,300 points. 

Tuesday's closing level of 4,982 for the S&P 500 was its lowest close since April 19, 2024. 

For the fourth straight day, tariff headlines were the market's biggest challenge.

Near midday, the White House confirmed that tariffs on China would be increased to 104% at midnight on Wednesday as the rest of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs go into effect. 

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Stocks erased all their gains on their day within an hour of the news and added to these losses in the final hour of the day. 

This seesaw market action has been the theme of the week as markets look for some stability following the S&P 500's worst week since March 2020, when investors grappled with the reality of Trump's tariffs. Over last Thursday and Friday, the benchmark index lost over 10%.

On Monday, stocks ripped higher, with the S&P 500 swinging 8% higher in a 15-minute period as headlines spread that the Trump administration was considering delaying the tariffs. The White House declared that report "fake news," sending both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to close lower on the day.

The two days of market swings provide one clear takeaway for investors: Right now, the direction of stocks is all about tariff negotiations. 

"We need to see some evidence of some negotiation very, very quickly," Fundstrat's global head of technical strategy, Mark Newton, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.

And the knee-jerk market action hasn't just been in stocks, either.

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose 10 basis points to hit 4.25% on Tuesday and is now up more than 25 basis points since an initial decline as investors feared Trump's tariffs could slow economic growth, sparking a flight to safety trade into bonds. 

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Over that same time period, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note has risen about 30 basis points. To Interactive Brokers' Sosnick, this action in fixed income is yet another sign of the chaotic trading action in markets right now. 

"If markets are having a difficult time pricing low-risk assets, like 2-year Treasurys, they're certainly not going to have an easy time pricing higher-risk assets, like equities, or ... crypto, or anything of that nature," Sosnick said. 

Meanwhile, volatility in stocks has soared, with the S&P 500 swinging roughly 6% or more peak-to-trough for three straight sessions, a phenomenon only seen in 1987, 2008, and 2020. 

"It's going to be very difficult to explain a lot of the price action just given the kind of volatility right now that we're seeing," Newton said. 

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

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18.

Stock market today: Dow sinks 300 points, S&P 500 nears bear market as Trump's tariffs keep roiling Wall Street

2025-04-08 20:02:57 by Brett LoGiurato from Yahoo Finance

US stocks tumbled in afternoon trading on Tuesday and ended sharply lower, with the S&P 500 narrowly avoiding a bear market after the White House said it plans to move forward on a threat to bring the overall tariff rate on China to 104%. That tariff rate will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. ET.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) each reversed gains of over 4% to fall around 1.6% and 2.2%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid roughly 0.8%, falling just over 300 points. Earlier in the session, the index had added over 1,300 points.

According to data compiled by Yahoo Finance, three straight days of elevated volatility of around 6% or more have only happened three other times in history: the 1987 market crash, 2008 financial crisis, and the lows of the pandemic. 

In a briefing earlier Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, "Americans do not need other countries as much as other countries need us."

She added, "President Trump has a spine of steel and he will not break."

Buyers had been wading back into the market after Trump's fast-moving tariff push spurred a roller-coaster session on Monday, which saw the Dow sink 350 points and the S&P 500 cement a historic three-day loss.

Spirits got an initial boost after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed the start of bilateral trade talks with Japan. The news alleviated fears that the White House wasn't prepared to cut deals on tariffs, given trade adviser Peter Navarro's comment to the Financial Times that Trump's tariffs were "not a negotiation."

Still, the White House said reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on Wednesday as planned, even while deals are negotiated. On Tuesday, China vowed to "fight to the end" if the US continues to pursue what Beijing authorities described as "blackmail."

Read more: Live updates on Trump tariffs fallout

Some top names on Wall Street — from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink — have started warning about the effects of Trump's tariffs. Even Tesla CEO and Trump adviser Elon Musk has offered gentle critiques over the past few days.

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19.

8 charts show the dramatic fallout from Trump’s 'Liberation Day' announcement

2025-04-08 08:00:53 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

It's been one of the most chaotic stretches for US markets in recent memory.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell more than 10% in just three days. The three-day collapse in stocks following President Trump's tariff announcement sits just below the top 10 worst sell-offs since World War II, per Yahoo Finance data. 

US stocks rebounded on Tuesday morning after the idea of tariff negotiations gained momentum.

The only three-day periods that brought stocks lower came in 1987, 1998, 2008, 2011, and 2020.

On Monday, the S&P gained roughly 8% in less than 30 minutes on a false report that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause on his tariff rollout. The White House quickly denied the reports, categorizing any potential tariff pause as "fake news."

Read more: How to protect your money during economic turmoil, stock market volatility

The trading action showed how chaotic global markets have become since Trump announced plans to spike the US tariff rate to its highest level in more than a century. 

The S&P 500 is now on the brink of a bear market, down about 17% from its most recent all-time high. Many of the largest stocks in the market are all off more than 20% from their most recent all-time highs. Oil prices have cratered to their lowest level in nearly four years, and overseas markets have suffered under the weight of the impact.

Trump's tariff plan

On April 2, Trump laid out his long-awaited plans to slap reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world, with the new levies ranging from a 10% "baseline" tariff to additional duties for nations the administration considers to be the "worst offenders."

All told, Trump announced tariffs that will impact some 185 countries, including the United States's largest trading partners. Additional reciprocal tariffs, for instance, will include 34% tariffs on Chinese imports, a 20% tariff on European Union imports, a 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam, 32% on imports from Taiwan, and 26% on India — all set to take effect on April 9.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

In the latest escalation of his trade war, Trump threatened China with an additional 50% tariff if Beijing did not remove the retaliatory 34% levies on US imports the country announced last week. 

Other countries have begun to announce their own retaliations and negotiation plans with the US as investors brace for more pain over the coming days and weeks.

Highfliers hit by tariff whipsaw

Just as the "Magnificent Seven" stocks helped lead the bull market higher over the past two years, the market's leaders have been at the forefront of the massive leg lower too. 

A combination of Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) lost over $1 trillion from their collective market caps in the first session following the tariff announcements. 

Even after some slight rallies on Monday, every stock in the cohort is still off roughly 5% in the past four sessions. 

As the selling action began to settle on Monday, investors were greeted with an ugly picture. Less than 20% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average.

The 200-day moving average is a commonly cited technical level that shows a stock's average trading price over the last 200 days. This chart helps reflect how indiscriminate this sell-off has been. Very few members of the S&P 500 have held up through the crash.

Global market impact

Oil prices have dropped about 15% over the last five days as investors worry Trump's tariffs will cause a recession and crimp demand.  

In early trade on Monday, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures briefly dropped below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021 before trimming losses to settle at $60.70. 

Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also declined over 1% to close at $64.21 per barrel.

Some analysts see more room for prices to fall. Goldman Sachs once again reduced its full-year price targets for both Brent and WTI, trimming estimates by another $4 on Sunday.

Goldman forecasts Brent to end 2025 at an average price of $62 a barrel and WTI crude prices at $58.

"We reduce our oil price forecast further as we incorporate our economists’ GDP downgrades from the last few days, including the forecast of a stagnating US economy," Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research, wrote in a note Sunday night. 

While the tariffs would brought on by the US, the global market is feeling the pain too.

There's perhaps no better example of how aggressive recent sell-offs have been than the massive move seen in Japan's Nikkei index (^N225).

The broad index of Japanese equities tanked nearly 8% on Monday. Futures tied to the index were halted at one point due to all the selling, one of the few circuit-breaking events seen amid the global scramble of the past few days.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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20.

Stock market today: Dow sinks 350 points, S&P 500 falls for third day as tariffs send stocks on roller coaster

2025-04-07 20:00:44 by Brett LoGiurato from Yahoo Finance

US stocks whipsawed on Monday during a chaotic trading session that saw multiple headlines push around a jumpy market. 

In the end, the indexes were little-changed with S&P 500 (^GSPC) falling 0.2%, its third consecutive day of losses as the benchmark index inched closer toward bear market territory. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.1% after erasing losses and gains numerous times throughout the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was the biggest loser, falling 350 points, or around 0.9%.

The White House poured cold water on a rumor that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on implementing the tariffs, sparking the first green turn of the day.

In the latest escalation of his trade war, President Trump threatened China with an additional 50% tariff starting on April 9 if Beijing did not remove 34% levies on US imports.

Monday's volatile trade came on the heels of a historic two-day sell-off, with the Nasdaq Composite entering a bear market on Friday and the US stock market shedding over $5 trillion in value.

Key Wall Street figures on Monday began speaking out against the tariffs. 

JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned of slower growth and higher inflation, and BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink said it was likely that the tariffs had already pushed the economy into recession. 

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, a Trump backer, urged the administration to freeze tariff plans to give room for negotiations.

But Trump's closest council gave no indication of walking back tariffs. In a Financial Times op-ed published Monday afternoon, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the Trump administration said the policy is “not a negotiation."

Read more: Live updates on Trump tariffs fallout

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21.

One Wall Street bull still sees a stock market rally: 'These levies will eventually be negotiated lower'

2025-04-07 16:08:59 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

While many Wall Street strategists are racing to move their year-end targets lower as stocks sell off following Trump's stern tariff stance, one bull isn't wavering. 

"We still firmly believe that these levies will eventually be negotiated lower," BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski wrote in a note to clients while maintaining a 6,700 year-end target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Belski's 6,700 target would represent a roughly 37% rally from current levels. Other strategists have recently become more measured in their outlooks. On Monday, Bank of America joined the likes of Oppenheimer, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, Barclays, Evercore ISI, and Yardeni Research in lowering its year-end S&P 500 forecast. The majority of those strategists now project the S&P 500 will end 2025 lower than where it began the year, just above 5,900. 

Many strategists have moved their targets lower as Trump's bevy of tariffs threaten to slow economic growth and boost inflation. The economics team at JPMorgan is now calling for a recession in the back half of 2025. Meanwhile, the team at Goldman Sachs has raised its odds of recession in the next 12 months to 45% from 35% previously.

The idea that the tariffs will spark a stock market sell-off and eventually cause a recession is one reason Belski believes Trump will eventually relent his firm tariff stance.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

"We have always subscribed to the simple viewpoint that the market leads the economy," Belski wrote. "So, we find it very difficult to believe that any President, let alone President Trump, would want to be viewed as being solely responsible for pushing the economy into a recession." 

After the S&P 500 fell more than 11% in two days to end last week's trading, Belski analyzed the forward 12-month returns for the benchmark index following each sell-off of more than 10% in a two-day period. Belski found that, on average, the S&P 500 falls roughly 14% during those periods but returns more than 36% over the next 12 months. 

"Unless it is going to be 'different this time,' the market is likely to rebound sharply from the latest levels and deliver quite impressive returns over the next year," Belski wrote. 

Belski remains Overweight on the Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Financials (XLF), and Information Technology (XLK) sectors. Since the drawdown began on Wednesday, those sectors are all down about 11% or more, underperforming the S&P 500's roughly 10.8% decline. 

In the near term, though, Belski's scenario, where Trump and his team eventually soften their stance on tariffs, has yet to emerge, fueling further selling in stocks. 

"I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," Trump said late Sunday night.

This has pushed many on Wall Street to argue investors need to come to the reality that tariffs are here to stay — and that could mean further downside for stocks in the near term.

"So, you either think tariffs are a means to an end or an end in and of themselves. The sooner everyone realizes that is probably the latter, the sooner we can start talking about getting back into the market," Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro's head of economic research, said in a note on Sunday.

In a note to clients on Sunday night, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson wrote that unless Trump or the Federal Reserve steps in to calm investor nerves, there's likely more selling action on the horizon. 

"Investors should be prepared for another 7-8% potential downside from Friday's close if there is no line of sight to a less severe trade environment and the Fed remains firmly on hold," Wilson wrote. 

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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22.

'I find it impossible to catch my bearings': Yahoo Finance community reacts to Trump tariff stock market plunge

2025-04-07 12:54:01 by Brian Sozzi from Yahoo Finance

Shocked investors are searching for a light at the end of the tunnel after being hit by Trump tariffs. 

Indeed a glimmer of any kind is hard to find at the moment. 

Markets have shed an astounding $5.4 trillion in value in the two days since President Trump revealed big-time tariffs on major countries last Wednesday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is now at its lowest level in 11 months, with pros saying the carnage may not yet be over. 

Futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F), Nadaq 100 (NQ=F), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) are down 2.8%, 3%, and 2.5%, respectively. 

Wall Street has been slashing its S&P 500 price targets for 2025, dialing up recession odds, and pontificating worst-case scenarios for the bottom lines of household name companies, from Apple (AAPL) to Amazon (AMZN) to Walmart (WMT). 

"What I’ve been saying in my meetings lately, even before the Rose Garden [ceremony last week on tariffs], is that it’s not clear to me where [for sectors and industries] new value has been unlocked," RBC Capital Markets strategist Lori Calvasina told Yahoo Finance. "If you are looking at individual stocks that have any of these [tariff] issues, I suspect it’s very hard to make assumptions about earnings that you can have confidence in."

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

So with this as a backdrop, I put a straightforward question to the Yahoo Finance retail investor community in my Sunday Morning Brief newsletter: What stocks are you buying amid one of the biggest routs in recent memory, if any? 

"You're right, it's messy right now and difficult to decide what to do," one investor remarked.

Below are several of the best responses I received. 

I would still love to hear from you as you navigate the markers this week. Drop me a line @BrianSozzi on X or directly via email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com. 

Eduardo A.

"So what am I buying what am I selling? Buying, not much. Like you I find it is impossible to get my bearings on individual shares since tech began to waver last August.

"You're right it's messy right now and difficult to decide what to do. I have taken lumps and sold positions that I was keeping to see if they went up over time, but time ran out Thursday ... they went down too much, so my marginal investments went kaput and I sold for losses ranging from 8% to 25%. Gulp.

"I have retained my IT investments which earlier this year I had moved to ETFs due to individual position volatility, but I'am facing a huge loss with Dell, (DELL) my chosen darling and only remaining tech stock, in what now looks like a horrid decison. It is a loss that I have yet to materialize but it rankles me. I may average down.

"I sold most everything where I was losing big or medium. I bought no new positions but added to two dividend payment positions as defensive measures Mercedes Benz Group (MBG.DE) and Banco BPM (BAMI.MI)

"I have kept all my (5) European defense stocks, Hensoldt (HAG.DE), Leonardo (LDO.MI), Rheinmetall (RHM.DE), losing Renk (RENK.VI) and Indra (ISMAY) due to stop losses that in the midst of battle, I inadvertently forgot to remove. (they all had big profit cushions, not crying about those sales). I kept 2 of my 3 my ETF's related to defense ... selling a US dollar denominated ETF only.

"My utility investments have done well in this sinkhole market.

"I am steeling myself for additional loss-making sales next week, as, despite a potential bounce back, I don't expect this to be a two day calamity.

"I have kept most banks due to dividends, takeover situations and large profit cushion. I added to a German mid cap ETF as I expect there will be orders going their way. I am also keeping Mercedes Benz and Porsche (PAH3.DE) auto shares because of their potential to segue into defense related production to save themselves.

"I have also retained two engineering construction companies that are involved in oil exploration or refinery building or similar un-ecological energy activities, despite also having some green energy projects.

Mark B.

"I'm a 61-year-old barely-retired self-managed investor living in Michigan, heart of the US auto industry. Under Trump 1.0 I underperformed broad market indices. The president's continuous tweets and flip-flops made rational investing challenging. I sold into negative comments, missed out on snapback rallies, and watched long-term passive investors who paid no attention to daily gyrations make sizable gains.

"This time I would learn from prior mistakes — so I thought.  

"I checked charts to recall China trade war rhetoric and saw a two-week 8% drawdown in March 2018 precede a strong rally. As the Rose Garden tariff chart flashed across the internet on Wednesday, I saw my opportunity. Not knowing what to purchase with my cash hoard I went broad with QQQ (QQQ) and SPY (SPY), picking them up "on the cheap" thinking this would be capitulation of the March correction similar to 2018. I finished the day down 2%. The next day down another 5%.  

"Now, with sentiment reaching extreme lows, I wait. I bite my nails for fear of further drops yet can't chance being out of the market should a positive announcement occur (tariff "deal", end of military conflict, or some out of the blue statement from the president).

"I ask, how a nation can offer "concessions" when its only transgression is supplying the US appetite for goods. How does a company restructure, overnight, global supply chains and manufacturing that took decades to establish? How should an investor respond when this entire "tariff" correction is resultant of one man's simplistic US trade deficit calculations? What if this all vanishes with a single post on social media?"

Read more: How to protect your money during economic turmoil, stock market volatility

James H.

"Brian, I lived through the financial crisis as well, and in my view, this situation is very different. Unlike back then, this crisis could potentially be resolved with the stroke of a pen. While I understand that some damage has already been done, the sell-off so far feels largely indiscriminate.

"Right now, I’m investing in management teams rather than just companies. No one can say for sure when or how this ends, but I believe that backing leaders who have successfully navigated multiple crises will pay off in the long run."

Russ

"Just read this. Although I agree with the premise, I don’t think it is as doom and gloom as the article paints. Example would be if as an analyst if your clients bought Apple back then, where would they be now or 10 years ago? As to what stocks I’m buying: tech, healthcare."

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

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23.

Wall Street stock bulls throw in the towel as tariff market meltdown 'projects negative outcomes to infinity'

2025-04-07 11:13:44 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Wall Street strategists are abandoning their bullish views on the US stock market in droves as a sell-off in reaction to President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcements has experts rapidly paring forecasts for 2025. 

On Sunday night, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus became the latest strategist to cut his year-end S&P 500 target, lowering his forecast for the benchmark index to close this year at 5,950, down from 7,100. Stoltzfus had entered 2025 as the most bullish strategist on Wall Street.

"While our expectations are for cooler heads to prevail in the trade negotiation process that’s likely to follow last week’s tariff regime announcements the market's reactions and percentage of recent declines in some individual stocks (as well as among major equity indices) suggests to us a need to right size expectations in the near term," Stoltzfus wrote.

Oppenheimer's call sees the firm join the likes of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, Barclays, Evercore ISI, and Yardeni Research in lowering their year-end S&P 500 forecast.

With stocks pointing to a third day of big losses, Stoltzfus noted that a "negative pitch book" has taken hold among investors. 

That pitch book, Stoltzfus wrote, "seemingly projects negative outcomes to infinity." 

Read more about today's market action as the stock market sell-off intensifies.

Julian Emanuel, who leads the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, lowered his year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600 from 6,800 over the weekend after the massive sell-off that sent the benchmark index down more than 17% from its Feb. 19 record high. 

Evercore is now one of three equity strategy teams tracked by Yahoo Finance that have flipped from seeing a positive return for the S&P 500 to projecting a negative year for stocks as Trump's hefty tariffs ripple through the stock market. The S&P 500 finished 2024 at 5,881. 

Policy uncertainty has already raised asset volatility, and Emanuel warned that the impacts that have weighed on survey data, like consumer confidence, could trickle into other economic data points. This would result in either stagflation, where inflation increases and growth slows, or an "outright recession."

"Investors, CEOs, and Consumers dislike uncertainty," Emanuel wrote.

Read More: What is stagflation, and how does it impact you?

In a note early Friday morning before China's retaliatory tariffs were announced, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina lowered her year-end S&P 500 target to 5,550 from a prior target of 6,200. 

That target of 6,200 had already been lowered from 6,600 less than a month ago, a sign of how quickly Wall Street has been forced to rip up its playbook as Trump's policy machinations continue to surprise investors. 

As Calvasina wrote Friday: "Our old bear case for the index this year has become our new base case."

ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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24.

Wall Street experts warn stocks have 'ample space' to continue cratering as Trump team digs in on tariffs

2025-04-06 22:55:15 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) just had its worst week since March 2020, and Wall Street isn't confident the selling is over.

Citi head of US equity strategy Stuart Kaiser wrote in a note to clients on Sunday he sees "ample space to the downside" for stocks.

Kaiser said worst case scenario tariff outcomes still haven't been priced into earnings estimates — or stock valuations. Similarly, should the economy truly be set to slow to the recessionary levels some fear, the stock market hasn't properly priced in that outcome yet either, Kaiser said.

"We remain very cautious," Kaiser wrote in a note to clients on Sunday. "Progress on valuation, positioning and risk pricing is not enough as EPS and growth forecasts are well-above the potential tariff impact. Scenarios of [the S&P 500] in the mid-4000s are not unreasonable."

Equity futures pointed to further selling on Sunday evening. 

Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) plummeted over 4%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F) lost nearly 5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) sank 3.7%. The Nasdaq closed in a bear market on Friday while the S&P 500's losses topped 17% from its record close in February. 

Economists have been increasingly stern in warning that President Trump's plan to introduce the largest tariff boost in more than a century could stop the US economy in its tracks.

In a note to clients on Friday, JPMorgan became the first major Wall Street bank to forecast Trump's tariffs would indeed tip the economy into a recession later in 2025.

Citi's Kaiser noted that if the economy were entering a recession, the S&P 500 would likely have further to fall. 

During recessions since 1948, the median S&P 500 pullback has been 22.1%, per Kaiser's research. A 22.1% drawdown would bring the S&P 500 down below 4,800, or about where futures pointed to the index opening on Monday morning. 

"There has been notable progress made on valuation, positioning and risk pricing, but earnings and economic growth expectations remain well-above levels consistent with announced tariff levels," Kaiser wrote. 

As stocks stumbled to start 2025, a growing discussion on Wall Street concerned about the various "puts" on Trump-induced policy uncertainty, or levels where the Fed, White House, or other policymakers would step in to stop the chaos and help financial markets.

And in the wake of Trump's "Liberation Day" shock, there doesn't appear to be any "Trump put" in play.

"The tariffs are coming," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday. He added that Trump "announced it and he wasn’t kidding."

On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell insinuated that investors shouldn't anticipate any instant relief from the central bank cutting interest rates, either.

"It's just too soon to say what the appropriate monetary policy response will be to these new policies," Powell said. "We can't say with any confidence today."

The result is a market in free fall with no clear end in sight.

"The Fed is not ready to step in, and if the president thinks the economy is fine, he has no reason to change course," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note on Sunday. "Before we even speculate on the outlook for trade policies, investors need to know that the combined strike price on the policy put continues to decline."

Dutta added: "So, you either think tariffs are a means to an end or an end in and of themselves. The sooner everyone realizes that is probably the latter, the sooner we can start talking about getting back into the market."

TIMOTHY A. CLARY via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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25.

I Just Invested in This ETF That Has Crushed the S&P 500: Here's Why You Should Buy It Right Now and Hold for 10 Years

2025-04-05 11:14:00 by Neil Patel, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Had you invested in the S&P 500 in April 2015, you would've been able to achieve a total return of 228%. This is well above the historical, long-run annual average of roughly 10%.

But what if you could outperform the widely followed benchmark? That's just what this monster exchange-traded fund (ETF) has done. In the past decade, it has produced a total return of 390% despite trading 15% below its all-time record that was reached on Feb. 19 (as of April 3).

Continue reading to learn why you should buy this investment vehicle right now and hold it for the next 10 years.

Betting on an obvious trend

In the past decade, investors have seen firsthand just how important technology has become to the overall economy. Various secular trends have played a part, like digital payments, digital advertising, cloud computing, streaming entertainment, and e-commerce. It's unlikely that these themes will have less of an impact in the future. It's going to be the opposite, with these tech forces having a greater influence on society.

That's why investors should take a closer look at the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ). It contains the largest 100 non-financial companies that trade on the Nasdaq exchange. It focuses very much on some of the most innovative businesses on the face of the planet.

Well-known enterprises have a huge weight. The top three holdings are Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The top 10 positions combined make up almost 49% of the portfolio, so there is concentration at the top.

However, the beauty of this strategy is that it is not required on the part of investors to try and pick a single winner behind various technological trends. Making long-term predictions is hard. Buying the QQQ ensures you gain adequate exposure to whatever stocks end up being the most lucrative.

Superior performance at a low cost

If you invested $10,000 in this ETF a decade ago, you'd be sitting on a portfolio balance of $49,000. That fantastic gain comes in well ahead of the S&P 500. This clearly points to the merits of the QQQ for any investor seeking capital appreciation.

Past results aren't guaranteed to repeat in the future, of course. But given the powerful tailwinds previously mentioned, it's easy for investors to be optimistic over the next decade and beyond. This is despite all the worries about the current economic backdrop.

I think there are two other benefits of buying the QQQ. One is the fact that investors don't need fancy finance or computer science degrees to be able to analyze businesses and stocks to select. This frees up a ton of time that can be directed to other endeavors.

Another obvious benefit is the cost. Only 0.2% of your assets go to the fee. This is much lower than the fees charged by many asset managers and hedge funds that actually end up underperforming.

A way to boost returns

Buying the QQQ right now, especially when it's 15% off its high, is a smart decision. Investors don't have to stop there. In addition to the initial sum, investing a small amount monthly or quarterly allows you to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging. This supports a habit of consistent investment, which can boost your portfolio.

It's all about time in the market. But be sure to maintain a long-term outlook. And be prepared for volatility, as nothing goes up in an uninterrupted straight line.

Investing in the QQQ today, and maybe even at ongoing intervals, is a surefire way to increase your wealth over the next 10 years.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

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I Just Invested in This ETF That Has Crushed the S&P 500: Here's Why You Should Buy It Right Now and Hold for 10 Years was originally published by The Motley Fool

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26.

JPMorgan becomes the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession following Trump's tariffs

2025-04-04 22:20:19 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

JPMorgan believes the US economy will enter a recession in the back half of 2025 as the impact of President Trump tariffs takes hold in the economy. 

The firm's chief US economist Michael Feroli sees a two-quarter recession occurring in the back half of 2025 as GDP contracts by 1% in the third quarter of the year and by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2025, Feroli's team projects GDP will fall by 0.3%.

"We now expect real GDP [gross domestic product] to contract under the weight of the tariffs," Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday night. 

Feroli added that a "recession in economic activity" will push the unemployment rate up to 5.3%. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday showed the unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in March. While other economists have noted the risks to recession are rising, JPMorgan marks the first major Wall Street research team to forecast a recession as Trump's tariffs weigh on economic growth.

"The pinch from higher prices that we expect in coming months may hit harder than in the post-pandemic inflation spike, as nominal income growth has been moderating recently, as opposed to accelerating in the earlier episode," Feroli wrote. "Moreover, in an environment of heightened uncertainty consumers may be reluctant to dip too far into savings to finance spending growth." 

Broadly, economists have agreed that Trump's reciprocal tariffs — which include broad 10% duties and further levies on select trading partners — will spike inflation and hamper economic growth. In Feroli's base case, core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, would end 2025 at 4.4%. The February reading of core PCE showed prices increased 2.8%.

Feroli's forecast projects a "stagflationary" environment, where prices increase while growth slows. Given the Fed's dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability, this could put the central bank in a quandary. As of Friday, markets had priced in four interest rate cuts from the Fed amid growing concerns about the trajectory of the US economy. 

Read More: What is stagflation, and how does it impact you?

"If realized, our stagflationary forecast would present a dilemma to Fed policymakers," Feroli wrote. "We believe material weakness in the labor market holds sway in the end, particularly if it results in weaker wage growth thereby giving the Committee more confidence that a price wage spiral isn’t taking hold." 

REUTERS / Reuters

After Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a patient approach to adjusting monetary policy during a speech on Friday, Feroli noted a "risk" is the Fed doesn't feel confident enough in the slowing economic data to cut interest rates until after its June meeting. Feroli's base case is that the Fed will still cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and at every meeting after until the central bank brings its benchmark rate down to 3% by January 2026. 

Concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs have been at the center of a recent stock market rout. Stocks just wrapped their worst week since a global pandemic brought the world economy to a halt in March 2020.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) pulled back almost 8%, or about 3,300 points, to enter correction territory. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank roughly 9% as the broad-based benchmark approached a 20% drawback from its most recent all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the losses, cratering 10% and ending in a bear market as it's officially down 20% from its most recent all-time high.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

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27.

Wall Street fears Trump's tariffs will wipe out 2024's stock market gains

2025-04-04 20:52:10 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks sank on Friday as the reality of an all-out trade war following President Trump's sweeping tariffs set in, fueling Wall Street strategists' worst fears about how far the S&P 500 (^GSPC) could fall in 2025.

Amid a $2.5 trillion wipeout in markets on Thursday, strategists had warned stock indexes could face further downside should the trade war escalate. On Friday morning, that fear became a reality.

Stock losses accelerated before the bell after China said on Friday it would impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US products from April 10 — matching the extra 34% duties imposed by Trump on Wednesday. 

On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) pulled back nearly 5.5%, or more than 2,200 points, on pace to close in correction territory. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank about near 6% as the broad-based benchmark had its worst week since March 2020. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped 5.8% and has now entered a bear market with a more than 20% decline from its most recent all-time high.

Friday's losses extended the stock rout as markets digested President Trump's launch of the most aggressive tariff plan in a century.

Read more: How to protect your money during economic turmoil, stock market volatility

"If high tariff rates stay in place, negotiations are drawn out over a multi-month period and additional measures are taken with key trading partners, the risk of a recession/our bear case is likely to rise more materially," Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients on Thursday night. Wilson's bear case projects the S&P 500 to end at 4,600, a level not seen on the benchmark index since December 2023.

The recent move in markets has already pushed some strategists to become less confident in stocks' ability to rebound from the recent crash. In a note early Friday morning before China's reciprocal tariffs were announced, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina lowered her year-end S&P 500 target to 5,550 from a prior target of 6,200. That target of 6,200 had already been lowered from 6,600 less than a month ago.

"Our old bear case for the index this year has become our new base case," Calvasina wrote. 

As of Friday morning, it doesn't appear the administration is backing down from its firm tariff stance. In a Truth Social post on Friday, Trump wrote, "MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!"

At this point, with the administration holding firm and other trade partners retaliating rather than negotiating, some on Wall Street don't see the tariff turmoil ending anytime soon.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

"The administration told other countries not to escalate and China just retaliated," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients. "The odds are that if other countries retaliate, Trump dials up the heat even more. Why should anyone assume anything other than retaliation and escalation right now? Europe is probably next to announce something."

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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28.

Stock market today: Dow plunges 2,200 points, Nasdaq enters bear market as Trump tariffs spark worst meltdown since 2020

2025-04-04 20:00:42 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks cratered on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) plunging more than 2,200 points after China stoked trade-war fears and Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of higher inflation and slower growth stemming from tariffs. 

The Dow pulled back 5.5% to enter into correction territory. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank nearly 6%, as the broad-based benchmark capped its worst week since 2020. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 5.8% to close in bear market territory. 

The major averages added to Thursday's $2.5 trillion wipeout after China said it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US products from April 10 — matching the extra 34% duties imposed by Trump on Wednesday. 

That ramped up investor worries that countries are more likely to retaliate than negotiate, leading to a protracted global trade war.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Investors flocked to government bonds as the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) yield fell to 3.9%, nearing its lowest levels since October.

Economists are warning that with tariffs as-is, the risk of a US recession is rising. The monthly jobs report, unusually overshadowed Friday, showed a labor market that held steady ahead of Trump's biggest tariffs. The US added 228,000 jobs in March, beating estimates, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Powell for the first time addressed the reality of the tariffs, saying they were "higher than anticipated." He said it is "too soon to say" what the proper rate path should be. Traders have ramped up bets on interest rate cuts this year to five, as the Fed is expected to set its efforts to cool inflation aside to tackle the bigger risk of economic slowdown.

Trump, posting on Truth Social on Friday, added to fears by saying that his policies "will never change" and warning that China "played it wrong."

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29.

US economy adds 228,000 jobs in March, unemployment rate rises to 4.2%

2025-04-03 20:35:11 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The March jobs report showed the US economy continued to add jobs at a strong pace last month while the unemployment rate ticked slightly higher. 

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed 228,000 new jobs were created in March, more than the 140,000 expected by economists, the 117,000 seen in February, and the 158,000 average monthly gain seen over the last year. 

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in the prior month. February's monthly job gains were revised lower from a previous reading of 151,000.

Friday's jobs report, however, has been overshadowed by Trump's shocking tariff announcement on Wednesday, which sent markets reeling and raised fears the US economy could tip into recession. 

Ahead of Friday's report stock futures were already deeply in the red, adding to a $2.5 trillion wipeout from Thursday, after China said on Friday it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US products from April 10 — matching the extra 34% duties imposed by Trump on Wednesday.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

As of midday trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) pulled back 3.3%, or about 1,300 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank about 3.8%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 3.8% after falling as much as 5%.

"[The March jobs report is] reassuring in the sense that, as we've been highlighting, we still have fairly robust fundamentals on the eve of what may be a significant economic slowdown resulting from the tariffs," EY chief economist Gregory Daco told Yahoo Finance following the release.

The survey for Friday's jobs report was conducted weeks before Trump announced his latest tariff plans.

"We're not seeing any type of retrenchment before the implementation of these tariffs and before the massive surge in policy uncertainty which is feeding through to market volatility," Daco said.

Wage growth, an important measure for gauging inflation pressures, rose 3.8% over the prior year in March, down from 4% in February. 

On a monthly basis, wages increased 0.3%, up from 0.2% the prior month. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.5% from 62.4% in February.

Signs of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) federal job cuts emerged in March's report. Federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March after falling by 11,000 in February. 

"We're on this deceleration path that's led by lower income growth, which will feed into consumers being more judicious with their outlays," Daco said. "And if you layer on top of that, additional tariffs, ongoing policy uncertainty, and very importantly, financial market stress that could lead to a catalyst for stronger slowdown in the economy."

Boston Globe via Getty Images

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30.

Stock market today: Dow plunges 1,700 points, Nasdaq, S&P 500 pummeled in biggest rout since 2020

2025-04-03 20:04:15 by Karen Friar from Yahoo Finance

US stocks cratered on Thursday in their worst one-day sell-off since 2020, with the Dow tumbling almost 1,700 points as President Trump's surprisingly steep "Liberation Day" tariffs sent shockwaves through markets worldwide.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting 6%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank nearly 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled 4%. The Dow's 1,700-point drop was the fifth-worst in its history.

Megacap tech stocks were clobbered: Apple (AAPL) shares fell over 9% amid concerns about disruption to its supply chain. China, the source of key iPhone components, was hit with additional US tariffs that raised its overall rate to 54%. 

Nvidia (NVDA) and other chip stocks also tumbled thanks to similar concerns, with the AI chip leader sliding over 7%. The so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks that led the market rally over the past two years shed over $900 billion in market cap.

Small-cap stocks were also hit during the session, as the Russell 2000 (^RUT) index declined more than 6.4% to close in bear market territory. 

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell about 14 basis points to close at 4.05%, its lowest level since October 2024. Meanwhile the US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) tumbled 1.5% to 101.92, also its lowest level since October 2024.

The two-step approach to tariffs unveiled by Trump on Wednesday imposes a baseline rate of 10% on all US trading partners but applies extra duties to countries considered "bad actors" on trade — meaning they face much higher rates. The levies go into effect on April 5 and April 9, respectively.

In total, some 185 counties are impacted by the tariffs, and the new duties set the effective US tariff rate at its highest level in over 100 years.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

For his part, Trump downplayed the market reaction. In response to a question about the market sell-off Trump claimed that markets will eventually "boom."

But stocks around the world sold off as the likelihood of retaliation from trading partners fueled fears of a full-on trade war and a severe hit to global growth. The pan-European benchmark Stoxx 600 (^STOXX) sank over 2.5%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 (^N225) slumped 2.7% to its lowest level since August. 

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31.

The stock market will be 'severely tested' by Trump's tariffs

2025-04-03 15:16:40 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

President Trump far exceeded Wall Street's worst fears with his "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, prompting many strategists to reconsider their previously optimistic outlooks.

"Whether the Bull Market has ended and a Bear Market has begun will be contingent on all politicians’ response, domestic and foreign, to 'Liberation Day,'" Julian Emanuel, who leads the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday night. "Our base case is that the Bull Market is being severely tested but will remain intact."

Stocks sold off swiftly as markets digested the tariff announcements. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting over 5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dove near 4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled roughly 3.5%, or almost 1,500 points.

Thursday's losses intensified a monthlong sell-off in stocks that had already prompted several Wall Street strategist to temper their expectations for the S&P 500. Now, with Trump's large tariffs further clouding the outlook, strategists are mapping out how much further the benchmark index could sink. 

The concern among strategists isn't just about the totality of Trump's current tariffs, which include up to 54% duties on China and 20% levies on the European Union. That alone could bring the US economy to the "precipice of recession," according to Bank of America economists.

The larger fear centers around how other countries will respond to the US tariffs, the potential knock-on effects from any reciprocal tariffs, and the further downside risks that would pose to the stock market. 

Evercore's Emanuel added that retaliatory tariffs would "open further near-term downside for stocks" and could push the S&P 500 down toward its 200-week moving average of 4,677. This would represent about another 15% drop in the benchmark index.

RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients that if the sell-down in the S&P 500 holds below the recent market bottom of 5,521, she'd be increasingly concerned about a "growth scare in stocks." To Calvasina, this would represent a range of a 14%-20% drawdown from the S&P 500's most recent all-time high and send the benchmark index as low as 4,900. 

"If that occurs, the 'bear case' that we mapped out several weeks ago of 5,550 at year-end 2025 may end up being a much more appropriate year-end price target for the S&P 500 than our current 'base case' target of 6,200," Calvasina wrote. 

Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert points out that even as more clarity on tariffs emerges, exactly what that means for companies on an individual basis remains to be seen. Chronert wrote in a note to clients he expects cuts to 2025 earnings estimates over the next few weeks. 

Chronert's team had been highlighting that 5,500 on the S&P 500, a level the index is currently below, would be a point where buying stocks looked more favorable. But that "is clearly reliant on negotiation dynamics in coming weeks." This, Chronert added, makes his team's bear case of 5,100 "incrementally in play." 

"We need to respect the news flow for the fundamentally disruptive dynamic it may create," Chronert wrote. "Yet, at the same time, we are reluctant to chase prices materially lower as there are still many aspects to this policy saga yet to play out."

CHARLY TRIBALLEAU via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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32.

'Worse than expected': Wall Street reacts to Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff surprise, stocks sink

2025-04-02 22:23:45 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

President Trump surprised markets again on Wednesday, announcing steep reciprocal tariffs on a range of trading partners in addition to a "baseline" reciprocal tariff rate of 10% in a move that sent markets tumbling. 

"The tariffs were definitely worse than we had anticipated," Deutsche Bank senior US economist Brett Ryan told Yahoo Finance.

For example, Chinese imports are set to be hit by a 34% tariff while imports from the European Union will be dealt 20% tariffs. Trump said the tariff calculations were actually only "half" of what they could've been had the administration chose to match White House estimates of how other countries tariff the US.

Stocks sold off sharply following Trump's announcement.

The decline in US stock futures was led by Nasdaq 100 futures, which were down more than 4.5% near 6:15 p.m. ET. S&P 500 futures were down 3.5% while contracts tied to the Dow were off closer to 2.2%.

Megacap tech stocks were under heavy selling pressure in extended trading, with Apple stock down more than 6% and Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Tesla (TSLA) shares each sliding more than 4%.

Ryan added his team had expected the effective tariff rate to land in a range of 15%-20%. Wednesday's announcement suggests the overall effective tariff rate on all US imports will sit in a range closer to 25%-30%. 

Strategists at Evercore ISI placed the effective tariff rate at 29% in a note late Wednesday. This projects the US tariff rate will stand at its highest level in more than a century.

"I wouldn't say it's outright recessionary," Ryan added. "I would say that it certainly increases the risk of recession."

Renaissance Macro's head of economics, Neil Dutta, described the announcements as a "a massive shock to the economy."

"It's surprising stocks are not down even more," Dutta wrote at 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday. "Perhaps investors assume cooler heads prevail later. I would not hold your breath."

As investors digest the latest levies, the looming market question remains for how long Trump will enforce these tariffs and whether other countries will retaliate or negotiate. 

Given the expected tit-for-tat that could play out between the US and some partners, Wall Street strategists don't believe Wednesday will serve as a "clearing event" where the tariff risk is swiftly priced in with a one-time, sweeping sell-off.

Stuart Kaiser, Citi's head of US equity trading strategy, wrote in a note to clients late Wednesday that the tariff announcements were worse than investor expectations and he doesn't recommend buying the dip in stocks yet. 

"The pattern of negative headlines, delayed deadlines and better-than-feared implementation seems likely to continue and the President's announcement included the potential for rollbacks based on negotiated bi-lateral outcomes," Kaiser wrote.  

"In our view, tariffs are likely to remain a repeated headwind."

REUTERS / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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33.

Stock market today: Stock futures sink after Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs shock markets

2025-04-02 20:03:15 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stock futures were under pressure late Wednesday afternoon after President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on a range of US trading partners that surprised markets during a "Liberation Day" event held at the White House. 

Near 4:45 p.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were down 1.7%, Nasdaq 100 futures were off 2.5%, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%. 

Ahead of Trump's announcement on Wednesday, stocks shook off early losses with all three majors gaining ground as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose almost 0.6%, or more than 200 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popped about 0.9%. 

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 had been down more than 1% in early trading on Wednesday.

Read more: The latest news and updates as Trump's tariffs take effect

Tesla (TSLA) shares helped lead the reversal. The stock had fallen nearly 5% after the EV maker's first quarter deliveries came in weaker than expected. But after a report from Politico that Musk is expected to leave his role in the government soon, shares turned upward by more than 5%. Amazon (AMZN) stock was also up 2% after the New York Times reported the tech giant has made a "last-minute bid" for TikTok.

Meanwhile, the day has finally arrived for Trump's big tariff reveal, with investors looking forward to the end of the trade policy uncertainty that has buffeted stocks for weeks.

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) inched up about 4 basis points to 4.19%, moving off a recent six-month low.

Even now, markets remain in the dark as to what the new reciprocal duties will entail, and so how big the potential shock to the US economy will be. Fears are that the duties could spur a full-on trade war as countries respond with their own retaliatory tariffs.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

On the economic front, the private sector added more jobs in March than expected, fresh ADP data showed. The upbeat reading sets the stage for the release of the March jobs report on Friday, watched for insight into the health of the US economy amid trade war fears.

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34.

2 Growth Stocks and 1 ETF to Buy Even If the Stock Market Keeps Falling in 2025

2025-04-02 10:15:00 by Daniel Foelber, Scott Levine, and Lee Samaha, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

So far, 2025 hasn't been a great year for growth stocks. At the time of this writing, the growth-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down by more than 10% year to date -- underperforming the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average -- both of which are also down, but by lesser degrees.

However, growth stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold growth stocks can be excellent investments for folks who can endure some volatility and have long-term time horizons.

Here's why Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), Trimble (NASDAQ: TRMB), and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) stand out as great buys now.

Broadcom has sold off considerably in the last three months

Daniel Foelber (Broadcom): Network connectivity and semiconductor giant Broadcom has given up all the gains it made after reporting its fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter results in December. The stock rallied hard after the report on management's strong guidance and the company's multiyear growth opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI), lifting it into the $1 trillion club. That surge in enthusiasm proved short-lived. Broadcom has been one of the worst-performing S&P 500 components in 2025. But there are reasons to be optimistic about the stock over the long term.

AI has grown from a relatively small part of Broadcom's business to one that provides more than a quarter of total revenue. Unlike pure-play AI companies, it has a diverse array of legacy business units, including networking, cybersecurity, and other global connectivity products like ethernet adapters and switches.

In the fiscal 2025 Q1 report it delivered in early March, Broadcom expressed enthusiasm for its XPU accelerator chips, which can perform specific tasks at a lower cost than graphics processing units (GPUs). One concern for that part of the business, however, is that hyperscalers may slow their spending on new cloud infrastructure due to rising economic uncertainty.

A handful of hyperscaler customers provide a significant slice of the company's revenue. On the March earnings call, Broadcom said that three hyperscale customers will generate what it calls a "serviceable addressable market" in the range of $60 billion to $90 billion in fiscal 2027. So a lot of Broadcom's AI growth is based on high capital expenditures by big tech companies to fuel AI demand.

Being dependent on a handful of buyers is a double-edged sword -- on the one hand, it can amplify growth during periods of expansion, but it also leaves a company vulnerable to a rapid deceleration. With Broadcom, however, it's worth remembering that the hyperscalers fueling its AI business may be different from the customers driving sales in other areas of the business, like enterprise software and networking.

All told, Broadcom stands out as a solid way to invest in AI without going all-in on the theme. The stock trades at a reasonable forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25.7, and pays a growing dividend with a 1.4% yield at the current share price.

Trimble continues to grow its key metric and a double-digit percentage rate

Lee Samaha (Trimble): Workflow technology company Trimble has excellent secular growth prospects. In plain English, sales of its solutions can grow even if the economy is weak. To be clear, Trimble will suffer if the economy weakens, but its secular growth drivers will support it and provide super growth when the economy improves.

The company offers hardware, software, and services that help customers in construction/infrastructure, the geospatial industry, transportation, utilities, and agriculture precisely manage their daily workflows. Trimble's hardware gathers precise location-based data (for example, where transportation fleets are or what construction activities are occurring), which enables teams to collaborate digitally on large projects.

That hardware can be connected to the cloud to allow multiple users to contribute and improve the project, while advanced data analysis can help teams improve workflows in real time. For example, in construction, machinery can be precisely monitored and guided to improve productivity, and construction progress can be precisely monitored. Furthermore, a digital model of each project is created, allowing multiple users to more easily collaborate on it.

The key word here is "productivity," which encompasses such things as reducing costs, improving quality, and ensuring the timely completion of projects. Even when the economy is bad, improvements on those things can provide significant value to clients. As such, you can feel confident Trimble will grow its annualized recurring revenue. In fact, it grew organic annualized recurring revenue by 16% in 2024, and management expects 13% to 15% growth in 2025.

This is a growth business, and since the adoptions of digital technology and advanced analytics are trends still in their early innings, Trimble has a bright future.

Invesco QQQ Trust is a growth ETF that doesn't cost an arm and a leg to own

Scott Levine (Invesco QQQ Trust): The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF is a solid choice for folks who want exposure to the market's top growth stocks. Tracking the largest 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, the fund includes many AI stocks, as well as those representing other growth industries. And it's not as if investors have to pay exorbitant fees to avail themselves of this option. The Invesco QQQ ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.2%.

From companies developing chatbots and other AI tools to semiconductor stocks, the top positions in the fund provide broad exposure to the rapidly burgeoning AI industry. Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia stand as the top three holdings with weightings of 9.1%, 7.9%, and 7.6%, respectively. In fact, all of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks are among its 10 largest positions.

Besides AI, the fund offers growth opportunities through stocks like Linde, an industrial gas supplier that operates various hydrogen assets, including a pipeline network about 600 miles long, nearly 200 refueling stations, and 80 hydrogen electrolysis plants. Moreover, Tesla and Nvidia provide exposure to the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

While there's no guarantee that the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF will outperform the market in the years ahead, it's certainly worth noting that over the past 15 years, it has far outpaced the market. Since 2010, the S&P 500 has provided a total return of 551%, while the Invesco fund has soared more than 1,000%.

Should you invest $1,000 in Broadcom right now?

Before you buy stock in Broadcom, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Broadcom wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

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*Stock Advisor returns as of April 1, 2025

Daniel Foelber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Scott Levine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Linde, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and Trimble and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

2 Growth Stocks and 1 ETF to Buy Even If the Stock Market Keeps Falling in 2025 was originally published by The Motley Fool

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35.

Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq jump in volatile session ahead of Trump's tariff reveal

2025-04-01 20:00:53 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors cautiously counted down to President Trump's highly anticipated "Liberation Day" rollout of sweeping new reciprocal tariffs.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.4%, extending the gains the benchmark index secured on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell just below the flatline. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rebounded to close up around 0.9%.

Markets are still in the dark as to what Trump will announce when he unveils his plans for like-for-like tariffs on Wednesday afternoon. The president's multiple U-turns in tariff hints have kept investors turning in circles, with stocks jumping or sinking as prospects for more limited duties ebbed and rose.

The big question is whether the US will impose a blanket reciprocal tariff on all trading partners, or will tailor the rate levied to specific countries. What is pretty certain is the effective US tariff rate is likely to reach its highest level since at least the 1940s, analysts say — putting pressure on a US economy already grappling with slowing growth and stubborn inflation.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

On the economic front, job openings hovered near a four-year low in February as the labor market showed continued signs of slow cooling. The data comes as investors closely watch for any signs that economic growth may be slowing further.

Meanwhile, separate data out Tuesday showed activity in the manufacturing sector slipped into contraction last month while costs continued to surge as suppliers weigh the impact of President Trump's tariff policy.

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36.

Job openings hit lowest level since September as labor market cools

2025-04-01 14:35:20 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Job openings hovered near a four-year low in February as the labor market showed continued signs of slow cooling.

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.57 million jobs open at the end of February, a decrease from the 7.76 million seen in January. Job openings in February remained near a level last seen in early 2021 and marked the lowest level since last September. 

The data comes as investors closely watch for any signs that economic growth may be slowing further.

The January figure was revised higher from the 7.74 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.66 million openings in February.

"The February JOLTS report showed some cooling of labor market conditions but is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from its view that the job market is stable enough to withstand an extended period of unchanged interest rates as the central bank monitors progress on inflation," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

As of Tuesday morning, investors were pricing in a roughly 66% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest by the end of its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Read more about the latest economic data releases and today's market action.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.4 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.39 million made during January. The hiring rate held flat at 3.4%. Also in Tuesday's report, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, fell to 2%, down from 2.1% the month prior.

Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows. This could put the labor market in a tough position should layoffs begin to increase, per Invesco chief global market strategist Kristina Hooper. 

"If we think we're going to see layoffs increase, which I very much anticipate going forward, and we continue to have pretty tepid job growth, that's a problem," Hooper told Yahoo Finance. "And underscores that message that the risk of stagflation, or at least a deceleration in the economy and potential recession, is increasing."

February's JOLTS report comes as recent surveys have shown consumers are beginning to sour on the labor market. The most recent survey of consumers from the University of Michigan showed two-thirds of respondents expect the unemployment rate to move up in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. Also out on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing employment index fell to 44.7% in February, down from 47.6% in February and at its lowest level since September 2024.

Broadly, that sentiment hasn't shown up in economic data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists expect that trend to continue in the March employment report due for release on Friday morning. 

Consensus expects the report to show the US labor market added 140,000 jobs in the month, down from the 151,000 seen in February. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.

REUTERS / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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37.

The Smartest Index ETF to Buy With $1,000 Right Now

2025-04-01 09:55:00 by Geoffrey Seiler, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Right now, there is a lot of uncertainty in the stock market. While stocks have bounced off their recent lows, the major market indices are still well off their highs and prone to volatility. Technology stocks, which had led the market higher in the past few years, have particularly struggled in recent months.

Much of this stems from fears about the economy and the current on-again, off-again tariffs and potential trade wars. In addition, there is some concern that artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending could begin to cool in coming years, which has impacted tech stocks. For example, there have been reports that Microsoft is pulling back on some data center projects. However, its data center capital expenditures (capex) are still on the rise this year, and others are also spending big.

Despite the recent dip in tech stock prices, the sector has still been one of the best places to invest over the past decade. Today, tech companies have grown to become some of the largest companies in the world. In fact, eight of the top 10 stocks by market cap in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) are classified as technology stocks, or they have very large tech components to them.

For investors looking to take advantage of this dip in tech stocks, there is one great exchange-traded fund (ETF) to buy: the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ).

A long track record of outperformance

The Invesco QQQ ETF tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100 index, which consists of the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. The index, and thus ETF, is heavily weighted toward growth, and in particular, tech stocks.

At the end of 2024, nearly 60% of the ETF's holdings were in the technology sector. However, some large companies with large tech components get grouped into other sectors. Amazon and Tesla, for example, are classified as consumer discretionary stocks. Amazon operates the largest cloud computing business in the world, and this segment makes up the bulk of its profits, so it is every bit a technology company as it is a retailer.

Here is a list of the Invesco QQQ ETF's top holdings and their weightings as of March 26, 2025:

Holding	Weighting		Holding	Weighting
1. Apple	9.1%		6. Broadcom	3.8%
2. Microsoft	7.9%		7. Meta Platforms	3.6%
3. Nvidia	7.6%		8. Netflix	2.8%
4. Amazon	5.8%		9. Costco Wholesale	2.8%
5. Alphabet	5.1%		10. Tesla	2.7%

Data source: Invesco.

This weighting toward tech and growth stocks has helped lead the ETF to a strong performance over the years. As of the end of February, the ETF has generated a cumulative return of 407.4% over the past 10 years. That easily surpasses the 238.8% return of the S&P 500 over the same period. Meanwhile, the ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 over 12-month rolling monthly periods 87% of the time over the past decade, and 84% of the time in the last five years.

That's a strong track record that most ETFs cannot match, making the Invesco QQQ ETF one of the best investments to make with $1,000 right now while the market is down.

Don't stop there

That said, investing $1,000 in the Invesco QQQ ETF as a one-off investment isn't going to make you wealthy. However, if you can invest $1,000 each month into the ETF, it would be a great start to building long-term wealth.

Consistently investing money at set periods of time is called dollar-cost averaging, and it is one of investors' best strategies to use outside stock picking. Invest $1,000 each month over a 20-year period with a 13% average annual return, and you'll have over $1 million at the end of this period. While 13% is a pretty substantial return and is not guaranteed, the Invesco QQQ ETF has generated a more than 17.5% return over this period, so it is quite plausible.

With the market still off its highs, this is a great time to start investing. Just remember to continue to consistently invest in both good markets and bad to get the most out of your ETF investments.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $672,177!*

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See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of March 24, 2025

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Alphabet and Invesco QQQ Trust. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Costco Wholesale, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The Smartest Index ETF to Buy With $1,000 Right Now was originally published by The Motley Fool

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38.

Should You Buy the Invesco QQQ ETF During the Nasdaq Correction? History Offers a Clear Answer.

2025-04-01 08:27:00 by Anthony Di Pizio, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

The Nasdaq-100 index features 100 of the largest nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It's home to many of the trillion-dollar tech giants that lead the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, so it has delivered spectacular returns over the last couple of years.

However, it's currently in the throes of a correction after declining by as much as 13% from its recent all-time high.

Investors have taken some money off the table because a combination of elevated valuations and uncertainty surrounding tariffs and global trade have dampened sentiment. However, the Nasdaq-100 has climbed to new record highs after every correction since it was established in 1985, so this is likely to be a great buying opportunity in the long run.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100 by holding the same stocks and maintaining similar weightings. Here's why investors might want to buy it now.

Exposure to a diverse portfolio of AI powerhouses

The Nasdaq-100 is weighted by market capitalization, meaning its largest constituents have a greater influence over its performance than the smallest. Therefore, it's no surprise that Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are the top three holdings in the Invesco QQQ ETF -- they are the world's largest companies, with a combined market cap of $9 trillion.

Those five companies have become leaders in different segments of the AI industry, as have Amazon and Broadcom, which round out the ETF's top five positions. However, the ETF is filled with dozens of other AI powerhouses that sometimes receive less attention from investors, including:

Stock	Invesco ETF Portfolio Weighting
Netflix	2.78%
Cisco Systems	1.65%
Intuitive Surgical	1.22%
Advanced Micro Devices	1.20%
Palo Alto Networks	0.82%

Data source: Invesco. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of Feb. 28, 2025, and are subject to change.

Netflix operates the world's largest streaming platform, with 301.6 million subscribers. AI is playing a growing role in its success by providing highly accurate content recommendations, and it even analyzes the strength of users' internet connection to deliver a consistent stream without pauses or interruptions.

These features keep users watching for longer periods of time and makes them stickier. Netflix has become a cash-generating machine, delivering a record $8.7 billion in profit on $39 billion in revenue last year.

Cisco supplies networking and connectivity solutions to enterprises and consumers, but the company is rapidly pivoting toward AI on several fronts. Nvidia recently announced it will use Cisco's Hypershield and AI Defense products to secure its AI factories (data centers). Plus, Cisco's workplace collaboration platform, Webex, recently introduced AI agents to help enterprises resolve more customer queries without human intervention.

Then there is Intuitive Surgical, which develops robotics for the healthcare industry. Its Da Vinci robot, for example, can help doctors complete major surgeries with keyhole incisions, resulting in less pain and faster recovery times.

The latest Da Vinci 5 system contains 10,000 times more computing power than its predecessor, so it can leverage AI more effectively to improve the accuracy of the robot's arm and enhance the images the doctors see during procedures.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) supplies graphics processing units (GPUs) for data centers that are designed for AI workloads, and they have become a genuine competitive threat to some of Nvidia's industry-leading chips. However, AMD is also one of the top suppliers of AI processors for personal computers and devices, which could be a major growth area in the future.

Lastly, Palo Alto Networks is the world's largest cybersecurity vendor, and it's weaving AI into a growing number of products. Cortex XSIAM, one of its newest platforms, enables organizations to automate their security operations by using AI to detect threats and respond to incidents.

One customer in the healthcare industry says it now resolves 90% of security alerts with automation, up from just 10% prior to adopting XSIAM. Humans simply can't keep up with the volume of cyber risks threatening organizations, so demand is soaring for AI-powered solutions.

But it doesn't end there. The Invesco ETF also holds several other popular AI stocks like Tesla, Palantir Technologies, Micron Technology, and more.

Now could be a great time to buy the Invesco QQQ ETF

According to investment manager Capital Group, stock market corrections of 10% or more occur once every two and a half years on average, so they are quite common. Sometimes they are triggered by economic shocks like the pandemic or the global financial crisis, but they can also happen during periods of general uncertainty, which appears to be the case right now.

Since President Trump took office on Jan. 20, he has placed tariffs on a variety of foreign products coming into the U.S. to encourage companies to move their manufacturing onshore. Just last week, he imposed a blanket 25% tariff on all cars coming in from overseas. That basically means that if you buy a vehicle that's manufactured in whole or in part outside the U.S., you could pay significantly more.

Most of the countries subjected to Trump's tariffs typically impose tariffs of their own, which affect U.S. goods entering their own borders. Trade wars of this kind can hurt the global economy because consumers can't absorb the sudden price shocks, so spending declines.

This is part of the reason the Nasdaq-100 suffered a peak-to-trough correction of 23% during 2018, when Trump made a series of similar moves during his first term in office.

But here's the good news: The stock market recovered to new highs in 2019, and this time probably won't be different. The Nasdaq-100 (and by extension, the Invesco ETF) is filled with some of the highest quality companies in the world, and many of them will continue riding the AI wave that PwC estimates could add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. Therefore, buying the Invesco QQQ ETF during the latest Nasdaq-100 correction is likely to be a wise move for the long term.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $672,177!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 815% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 162% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of March 24, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Anthony Di Pizio has the following options: long April 2025 $200 puts on Tesla and long April 2025 $210 puts on Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, Apple, Cisco Systems, Intuitive Surgical, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Palantir Technologies, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom, Nasdaq, and Palo Alto Networks and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Should You Buy the Invesco QQQ ETF During the Nasdaq Correction? History Offers a Clear Answer. was originally published by The Motley Fool

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39.

The key risks that drove the S&P 500's worst first quarter in 3 years aren't going away

2025-04-01 08:00:50 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks are ending the first quarter of 2025 near their lows of the year. President Trump's tariffs have been a major driver of the recent market sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling 5.75% in March alone. 

But now, with Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2 fast approaching and investors expecting to hear more details about the president's plans for reciprocal tariffs, strategists aren't confident that tariff answers will solve all of the market's developing issues from the first three months of the year.

"We are not dip buyers as the risks that drove the sell-off linger," Citi head of US equity strategy Stuart Kaiser wrote in a note to clients on Sunday. 

To Kaiser's point, the recent equity market sell-off hasn't just been driven by one straight flavor. If anything, it's been a smorgasbord of worsening vibes across earnings expectations, consumer and business sentiment, and weakening economic data. 

Big Tech has borne the brunt of the selling action. As the S&P 500 entered the year with valuations near multi-decade highs, many had called for a relaxation of the "seven stocks driving the whole market higher" narrative of the past two years.

In late January, the rise of DeepSeek's low-cost AI offering in China first spooked the tech trade. Then, when tariffs further threatened investors' risk appetite, the market's top winners of the past few years led the selling.

Now, after the Magnificent Seven's worst quarter against the S&P 500 in more than two years, it's unclear whether the hottest trade of this bull market will once again be able to help power the S&P 500 higher. But given their outsized weighting, strategists have pointed out it's unlikely the benchmark index could have a sustainable rally back toward record highs without participation from the largest stocks in the market. 

"We are positive [on Big Tech], but I would put it more like medium to long term," Barclays head of US equity strategist Venu Krishna said during a media call with reporters last week. "In the near term, we find hardly any catalyst for that [trade] to really recover."

A 'weakening' economic backdrop

A key issue not just for the Big Tech sell-off but the overall market has been a rerating of growth expectations for the year. Entering 2025, consensus centered around another year of above-trend growth for the US economy.

But three months in, the data has told a different story. Consumer spending declined for the first time in nearly two years during January. February saw a smaller comeback than economists had expected. Goldman Sachs now believes the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 0.2%, down from an initial projection of about 2.4%. 

The inflation picture hasn't improved much, either. The most recent reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed core prices increased 2.8% in February, a move higher from January. 

Citi's Economic Surprise Index has fallen since this year's peak in mid-January as data comes in short of consensus expectations. The chart below sums up the story of the first quarter in economic data. The majority of data points have been worse than expected. 

Now, with the index off its lows for the year, the question is whether growth forecasts have fallen far enough for markets to once again be surprised to the upside.

"The economic backdrop is weakening relative to consensus expectations, earnings are likely to be reset lower at a time where valuations are improved but not compelling," Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Monday. "Thus, we expect the choppy market environment to persist over the next several weeks and likely months, and we are not likely to see a quick return to new highs."

Weaker forecasts

The market's current issue is that the aforementioned headwinds wouldn't be a welcome sign for stocks in any environment. But they're particularly worrisome when President Trump's looming tariff policy is only expected to exacerbate the market's pain points. Uncertainty over Trump's policies has sent consumer sentiment to its lowest level since 2022.

The most recent survey of consumers from the University of Michigan showed two-thirds of respondents expect the unemployment rate to move higher in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. CEO confidence has crumbled, too, with Chief Executive magazine's optimism outlook hitting its lowest level since 2012. There's growing concern that the weakening consumer and corporate vibes could eventually weigh on actual growth in the US economy. While not the base case, recession chances have risen too, with Goldman Sachs recently raising its probability of one in the next 12 months to 35% from 20%. 

Spencer Platt via Getty Images

Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni summed up the current mood well in a note that also included the second downgrade to his year-end S&P 500 target in the past month. 

"Admittedly, it’s getting harder to be optimistic, but we are doing the best we can under the circumstances," Yardeni wrote.

Yardeni is one of several strategists cutting their outlooks for the S&P 500 this year as tariff uncertainty meets already slowing growth data. The equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs isn't confident that the dawn of a new quarter will bring much change to what's been a muddling outlook for stocks. 

Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin's baseline forecast is for the S&P 500 to bottom "this summer, slightly ahead of the trough in economic growth in our forecasts." His firm has a three-month target for the benchmark index of 5,300, about 5% lower than current levels. 

"We continue to recommend investors watch for an improvement in the growth outlook, more asymmetry in market pricing, or depressed positioning before trying to trade a market bottom," Kostin wrote.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

---

40.

VOO Has a Green Day but Closes Q1 Simply Red

2025-04-01 00:10:00 by Ron Day from etf.com

Stock ETFs, including the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), slid further as of midday Monday as investors await clarity around what salvos President Donald Trump plans to fire next in his trade war. Meanwhile, bond funds gained as investors gravitated toward safe havens.

The $598.8 billion VOO, the world’s biggest exchange-traded fund, lost 0.7% by midday before rallying to close slightly higher at $513.91. Still, it booked for a first-quarter slide of nearly 5%, reflecting what would be the S&P 500’s worst quarter since 2022, according to Bloomberg. 

The $305.5 billion Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also fell, losing 1.3% by midday before recovering to a loss of just $0.20 per share as mounting recession fears crimped the outlook for once-hot technology and artificial intelligence stocks. 

Investors bid up the safest investments after President Trump this weekend said that his next tariffs might be extended to all nations. And his April 2 “Liberation Day” stokes uncertainty around what may or may not be launched in the trade war. The biggest fixed-income ETF, the $126.8 billion Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) rose 0.2%, while the $51.1 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) jumped 1% to add to its 4% gain this quarter. 

"Falling prices are a clear vote of low confidence in the current direction of the U.S. economy," etf.com Senior Content Editor Kent Thune, CFP, said.

Goldman Boosts Recession Odds

Trump’s tariffs and threats have hurt U.S. markets more than Europe’s so far this year.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) boosted its odds for a U.S. recession to 35%, saying risks of reciprocal tariffs are rising, while also cutting its outlook for the S&P 500 to 5,700, only about 150 points from its current level. 

“Higher tariffs are likely to boost consumer crisis,” Goldman wrote, according to a CNN report. 

Against that backdrop, the S&P 500 is about to close its worst quarter compared with the rest of the world since the 1980s, according to Bloomberg. 

Investors have been pulling back equity bets since Trump was sworn in. Last week, inflows into ETFs dropped dramatically, falling 83% to $10.5 billion from $62.5 billion the previous week, according to etf.com data. 

Fundstrat Global Advisor's Thomas Lee tweeted that fund managers expect the “economy will tank” after Liberation Day due to anxieties over a lack of market visibility, tariffs, and fears over Trump policies. He said his comment was based on weekend conversations. 

---

41.

Stock market today: Dow gains 400 points, stocks reverse losses as markets cap worst quarter since 2022

2025-03-31 20:06:41 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks rebounded Monday to cap a volatile month and quarter as trade-war worries mount in the run-up to President Trump's tariff bonanza later in the week. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed down about 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) recuperated losses of as much as 1.7% to close up nearly 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) erased early morning losses to gain 1%, or about 400 points.

Markets wrapped up March on a woeful note after a rough month and quarter beset by Trump's fast-evolving tariff policy. Last week was the fifth in six weeks that the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 ended the week in the red. The benchmark index is down over 4.5% to start the year while the Nasdaq has lost over 10%, finishing with their worst quarters since 2022.

Some of the biggest-name megacaps have led the decline. Nvidia (NVDA) fell Monday as it has neared a 20% loss so far this year, while Tesla (TSLA) has lost more than 35%.

Stocks have sold off amid concerns about the economic impact of Trump's trade offensive, as uncertainty about its scope dampens market appetite for risk. Investors are now bracing for the broadest set yet of US tariffs, set to be unveiled on April 2 — described as “Liberation Day” by the president. 

Trump said he plans to target "all countries" with reciprocal tariffs from the start, dampening hopes for a more limited push. A report from The Washington Post this weekend suggested the president is pushing advisers to go even "bigger" in imposing the levies.

Meanwhile, markets are still keeping watch for signs of economic stress after stocks fell in the wake of a hotter-than-expected read on "core" PCE — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The March jobs report due on Friday is the data highlight of the week, with updates on private payrolls and job openings also on the docket.

---

42.

30-Year-Old With $65K In Stocks Sparks Debate – 'Focusing Mostly On ETFs' But Now Betting On Bonds, Small Caps, And International Plays

2025-03-31 16:00:18 by Paula Tudoran from Benzinga

Many investors start their journey toward financial security with stocks, and a successful investing strategy involves considering the risks, adapting, and thinking about the long-term rewards.

For some, a well-balanced portfolio contains stocks, bonds, and small-cap investments, while for others, a mix of international stocks and ETFs is a favorite approach since it offers broader diversification. Either way, a combo of these assets ensures both growth and protection against a market downturn and is a great strategy for those unwilling to risk their money unnecessarily.

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A 30-year-old investor with a $65,000 portfolio has taken to Reddit to ask how to strike that balance in his portfolio. Primarily invested in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) and Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), he also holds individual stocks like NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, GOOGL)), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), but plans to exit them soon.

“I am planning to change the composition moving forward and adding [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ: VXUS)] (International exposure ETF), [iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: IJR)] (Small-cap stocks ETF), and [Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ: BND] (Bonds exposure) along with my VOO and QQQ. I like it boring for my risk profile,” he said.

The poster’s main goal is long-term growth, but he’s open to feedback on improving diversification and managing risk. The r/Portfolios community has shared its thoughts in the comments, so let’s see those.

Trending: Are you rich? Here’s what Americans think you need to be considered wealthy.

How to Diversify a $65,000 Portfolio? Reddit Debates Possible Low-Risk Options

Overexposure to Large-Cap Growth Stocks Isn’t a Good Idea

Several Redditors pointed out that VOO and QQQ heavily overlap, meaning the investor’s portfolio is not as diversified as he thinks.

“You’re just long all the same s–t, large-cap equities. You want multiple return streams in case large-cap equities have a drawdown. If you work a job, own a house, and own equities, you are triple long on the same bet that would destroy you as all are affected by a recession,” a commenter says.

A Redditor pointed out that a mix of large-cap stocks isn’t a complete retirement portfolio, and suggested other assets to balance it.

“Large-cap U.S. stocks can be a great investment, but they’re not a complete retirement portfolio. Other assets should be included, such as smaller-cap U.S. stocks, international stocks, and bonds,” the Redditor wrote.

While not against big tech, this commenter recommended the poster add non-tech exposure in his portfolio.

“I don't see picking high-quality companies that are in the index as redundant, you're overweighting the highest quality companies in the index and which drive its returns. I would look for maybe one high-quality non-big tech name. I love the credit rating agencies (S&P and [Moody's (NYSE: MCO)]), but there are others, the three large credit card companies too,” he said.

See Also: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates.

Stick to Index Funds

Many advised the investor to drop the individual stocks he holds since they're already covered in VOO and QQQ, creating unnecessary concentration.

“Remove all redundancies and focus on VOO (almost everything you own is in VOO),” a Reddit user suggested.

“Good that you’re making an effort to invest, but there’s a lot of redundancy here. The Mag 7 already makes up a huge portion of VOO, why do you feel that you need to be even more extended in those stocks? If you really want to stock-pick on the side, I’d recommend focusing on lesser-known stocks (not penny stocks) that aren’t heavily weighted in the S&P 500 (preferably not in it at all),” a commenter advised.

Reinforcing the idea that stock-picking isn’t adding value if the stocks are already in the ETF he has, this Redditor suggested the poster go all in in VOO or diversify more.

“I’d diversify some. VOO's major holdings are already included in the individual stocks you're holding. Might as well go more into VOO (and keep [Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)] if you’re still really bullish on them),” he said.

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This article 30-Year-Old With $65K In Stocks Sparks Debate – 'Focusing Mostly On ETFs' But Now Betting On Bonds, Small Caps, And International Plays originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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43.

Wall Street strategists continue to cut their stock market forecasts as Trump tariff fears become reality

2025-03-31 14:06:03 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Wall Street strategists keep moving their year-end targets for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) lower as President Trump's tariffs become a reality.

On Sunday, both Yardeni Research and Goldman Sachs lowered their year-end targets for the second time in the past month. Yardeni Research now sees the S&P 500 hitting 6,100 this year, below a prior forecast for 6,400. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs projects the benchmark index will end the year at 5,700, down from its previous forecast of 6,200.

"These estimates incorporate downward revisions to both earnings growth and valuations, reflecting a weaker base case economic growth backdrop, higher uncertainty, and higher recession risk," Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin wrote.

Key to both projections is an admission that Trump's tariffs are likely to be more widespread than most economists initially thought and that they will weigh on the overall economy and potentially provide further near-term downside to stocks.

Goldman Sachs now has a three-month target on the S&P 500 of 5,300. Key to Goldman's call was a bleaker outlook for the US economy. Goldman's team of economists recently raised their tariff assumptions to a 15% tariff rate, above their prior forecast of 10%, and raised its probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35% from 20% seen previously.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Goldman's baseline forecast is for the S&P 500 to bottom "this summer, slightly ahead of the trough in economic growth in our forecasts."

"We continue to recommend investors watch for an improvement in the growth outlook, more asymmetry in market pricing, or depressed positioning before trying to trade a market bottom," Kostin wrote.

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI via Getty Images

Meanwhile, Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni now sees a 45% chance the economy tips into recession and the S&P 500 enters a bear market as market conditions "have continued to deteriorate under Trump’s Reign of Tariffs." A bear market would mark a 20% decline for the benchmark from its recent all-time high to a level of just over 4,900. This would mean stocks could have at least another 12% in downside from current levels. 

Yardeni wrote he's "losing confidence" that the US economy will remain resilient in the face of "Trump's reign of tariffs." Yardeni pointed to the already growing signs that stagflation, a period where inflation remains sticky while economic growth slows, is already showing up in economic data. On Friday, a fresh release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that consumer spending increased less than expected in March while inflation increased more than expected. 

"Admittedly, it’s getting harder to be optimistic, but we are doing the best we can under the circumstances," Yardeni wrote.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

---

44.

'Not currently priced in': What Wall Street is saying about Trump's April tariff deadline

2025-03-30 13:00:02 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks have sold off in recent days as investors digested President Trump's latest round of tariffs.

The headlines are expected to intensify in the week ahead, with an April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline that Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day" looming on Wednesday. 

The big questions from investors headed into the expected announcements are to what extent will Trump impose levies on trading partners and whether the moves lead to further escalation of the trade war.

"The market is going to have a lot to digest," Veda Partners director of economic policy Henrietta Treyz told Yahoo Finance. "And they're going to see just how forward-looking and long-term these tariffs are, which is not currently priced in."

Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays, said on a call with reporters on Thursday that Trump's recent 25% auto tariffs on foreign made-vehicles were "a bigger deal than the market is making it out to be."

"It is a statement of intent," Rajadhyaksha said. "And at least in my mind, it releases the risk that April 2 is something that markets can't dismiss. I think we will be negatively surprised."

The growing market fear is that worse-than-expected tariffs could weigh on already souring sentiment and eventually slow economic growth. The impact of tariffs has already prompted several Wall Street firms to lower their S&P 500 year-end targets. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin on Monday cut his target for the second time in March, from 6,200 to 5,700. Meanwhile, Barclays recently lowered its target from 6,600 to 5,900.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Should the eventual tariff rate land higher than Barclays' roughly 15% estimate, the firm sees more potential downside risk for stocks and the economy potentially slipping into recession. The possibility of this outcome has Rajadhyaksha telling clients to "be as defensive as possible."

"We are as defensive as I can remember in the last two and a half years," Rajadhyaksha told Yahoo Finance in a separate interview after Thursday's media call.

The economics team at Goldman Sachs also believes markets will be surprised to the downside next week. Goldman Sachs' recent survey of market participants shows investors likely expect a nine percentage point reciprocal tariff rate, per chief political economist Alec Phillips. But Goldman Sachs' team believes the initially proposed rate will be higher, potentially closer to double what market participants expect, Phillips wrote.

"Administration officials have said explicitly that the soon-to-be announced tariff rates are intended as the basis for negotiation, which incentivizes the administration to propose higher rates at the outset," Phillips wrote when explaining why the team sees tariffs coming in higher than the market expects. "This occurred in the recent experience with Canada and Mexico tariffs, which twice involved a steep tariff rate that was rescinded mostly or entirely after a few days."

Still, given that policy uncertainty has been a key factor weighing on the market during the recent drawdown, some analysts are hopeful that further details on the path ahead could calm markets. 

"It should take some pressure off the market," Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily Trend Report chief technical strategist, told Yahoo Finance. "I think the biggest concerns in the markets have been not only tariffs but the uncertainty ... So I think if we get some clarity on the tariff picture, the market sees that as a positive sign. And I think we do move higher from there." 

REUTERS / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

---

45.

Trump's 'Liberation Day' and a labor report: What to know this week

2025-03-30 11:30:53 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks are hovering near their lowest levels of the year, with President Trump's latest tariff announcements and fears about the US economy's path forward sending equities lower in the final full week of the first quarter. 

In the last five days of trading, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell nearly 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped about 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the losses, falling nearly 3%. 

In the week ahead, Trump's tariffs will take center stage as the president's April 2 "Liberation Day" looms on Wednesday. The president is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on that day, with investors closely watching for specific details on how steep the levies will be.  

This week, the focus will shift to the labor market, with the March jobs report set for release on Friday. Updates on private payrolls and job openings, as well as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, are also expected to gain attention. 

On the corporate front, it's expected to be a quiet week for quarterly earnings releases.

A tariff event 'markets can't dismiss' 

Trump's widely anticipated tariff announcements are expected to come on Wednesday. And there's a growing list of Wall Street firms that believe markets may not be prepared for what's coming. 

The economics team at Goldman Sachs says it believes markets will be surprised to the downside. Goldman's recent survey of market participants shows investors likely expect a 9-percentage-point reciprocal tariff rate, per chief political economist Alec Phillips. But Goldman's team believes the initially proposed rate will be higher, potentially closer to double what market participants expect.

"Administration officials have said explicitly that the soon-to-be announced tariff rates are intended as the basis for negotiation, which incentivizes the administration to propose higher rates at the outset," Phillips wrote. "This occurred in the recent experience with Canada and Mexico tariffs, which twice involved a steep tariff rate that was rescinded mostly or entirely after a few days."

Trump provided markets with a tariff appetizer last week when announcing 25% tariffs on foreign-made vehicles. Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the global chairman of research at Barclays, said during a media roundtable that these tariffs were "a bigger deal than the market is making it out to be."

"It is a statement of intent," Rajadhyaksha said. "And at least in my mind, it releases the risk that April 2 is something that markets can't dismiss. I think we will be negatively surprised."

A pivotal labor report

Trump's tariff turmoil has spooked consumers at a time when economic data is already showing signs of slowing growth and sticky inflation. On Friday, a release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed prices increased more than expected in February while consumer spending increased less than projected. Less than two hours after the release, the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 5% in March, the highest since November 2022. 

The developments sent stocks tumbling, with the S&P 500 falling about 2% on Friday alone. 

Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients that Friday's market action was an example of the prospect of stagflation — where inflation remains sticky and economic growth slows — getting further priced into the market. 

For now, economists have largely argued that the economy is only slowing from its above-growth trend of the past few years but not headed for recession. A key part of this narrative has been a labor market that is cooling, but not collapsing. The week ahead will bring a fresh look at just how quickly the jobs market is softening.

The March jobs report, set for release on Friday morning, is expected to show the US labor market added 135,000 jobs in the month, down from the 151,000 seen in February. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. 

"Risks around this report may be asymmetric," Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients previewing the event. "We think it would take a lot of employment growth to alleviate fears of a sharper slowdown in the economy, while a mildly below-consensus print could fuel those concerns." 

Poor guidance 

Amid the tariff talk, more companies than usual are falling short of analyst expectations with their earnings guidance. Of the 107 S&P 500 companies to issue guidance for the first quarter, 68 have issued negative guidance, per FactSet. 

This is above the five-year average of 57 companies issuing negative guidance and the 10-year average of 62. FactSet notes that negative guidance occurs when the number provided by a company is lower than the consensus earnings per share estimate from the day before the announcement. 

For now, this is one example of how Wall Street entered 2025 overly optimistic. As first quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest on April 11, the big market question will be whether analysts, and the market as a whole, have rerated their expectations low enough as corporates navigate the tariff headwinds.

Weekly Calendar

Monday

Economic data: MNI Chicago PMI, March (45.5 expected, 45.5 prior); Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, March (-5 expected, -8.3 prior)

Earnings: No notable earnings releases.

Tuesday

Economic data: Job openings, February (7.69 million expected, 7.74 million previously); ISM Manufacturing Index, March (49.8 expected, 50.3 prior); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March final (49.8 previously)

Earnings: No notable earnings releases.

Wednesday

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 28 (-2% expected); ADP Private Payrolls, March (+119,000 expected, +77,000 previously); Factory orders, February (0.4% expected, 1.7% prior); Durable goods orders, February final (0.9% prior); Capital Goods orders nondefense excluding air, February final (-0.3% prior)

Earnings: BlackBerry (BB), RH (RH)

Thursday

Economic data: Challenger jobs cuts, year-over-year, March (+103.2% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ending Mar. 29 (224,000 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, March final (53.5 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, March final (54.3 prior); ISM services index, March (53.1 expected, 53.5 prior)

Earnings: Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston (LW), Guess (GES)

Friday

Economic calendar: Nonfarm payrolls, March (+135,000 expected, +157,000 previously); Unemployment rate, March (4.1% expected, 4.1% previously); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, March (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, March (+3.9% expected, +3.9% previously); Average weekly hours worked, March (34.2 expected, 34.1 previously); Labor force participation rate, December (62.4% previously)

Earnings: No notable earnings releases.

---

46.

The Best Technology ETF to Invest $500 in Right Now

2025-03-30 10:45:00 by Neil Patel, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

When mentioning the stock market's performance, the investment community usually focuses on the S&P 500 index. This broad index contains 500 large and profitable U.S. businesses. In the past decade, it has generated a total return of 236%, which is an impressive feat.

But perhaps you're interested in the potential to produce even better returns. This might guide you to wanting greater exposure to companies with a tech focus. Luckily, there's an investment vehicle that has significantly outperformed the S&P 500.

Continue reading to learn about the best technology exchange-traded fund (ETF) to invest $500 in right now.

Specialized exposure

It's time to get familiar with the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ). As of March 26, it had $311 billion in total assets. And it's invested in the 100 biggest nonfinancial companies that trade on the Nasdaq exchange.

If you want to own disruptive and innovative businesses, then this ETF might be the right choice for you. It has a high concentration in the "Magnificent Seven," with this group combining to represent 42% of the QQQ's asset base. These companies have generally exhibited rapid growth in recent years. What's more, they benefit from some major themes, such as artificial intelligence, digital advertising, digital payments, cloud computing, and streaming entertainment, for example.

Technology continues to change at a rapid pace as it shapes our economy. Consequently, it can be difficult to identify single winners within various secular trends. This highlights the beauty of the Invesco QQQ Trust. By owning 100 different stocks, investors benefit from broad diversification, a surefire way to capture the most successful enterprises of tomorrow while avoiding single-stock risk.

What really matters

It's certainly important to know what stocks and industries are represented in an ETF. However, investors care most about performance. The QQQ hasn't disappointed in this regard.

In the past 10 years, it has generated a total of 406%. This means a $500 investment made in late March 2015 would be worth over $2,500 today. This is an incredible outcome that drastically outperformed the S&P 500's total return of 236%. Of course, the caveat is that investors had to endure greater volatility along the way.

Besides a fantastic gain, it's also worth paying attention to the costs. The QQQ carries an expense ratio of 0.2%. On a $500 capital outlay, this translates to $1 in fees. Instead of fattening the pockets of the ETF sponsor, more of your hard-earned savings are kept over time.

There is also an often-overlooked benefit to investing in the Invesco QQQ Trust. It's a very low-maintenance strategy. Investors do not need a finance degree, expert financial modeling skills, or lots of time spent reading through financial statements and listening to earnings calls to benefit from the investment.

Buy the dip

The track record of the Invesco QQQ Trust is undeniable. And right now, investors are being presented with a worthwhile opportunity to put some money to work. That's because this ETF currently trades 9% off its all-time high, a mark that was reached in February.

There are certainly fears swirling about the direction of the economy, mainly due to policy decisions by the presidential administration. The market hates uncertainty, which has added pressure to stocks recently.

But long-term investors should take advantage. Allocating $500 right now to the Invesco QQQ Trust looks like a very smart move. An even better decision would be to dollar-cost average additional capital at regular intervals in the future. Not only does this allow you to buy at different entry points, but it also helps to build a habit of consistent investing.

The best tech ETF has a stellar history of compounding capital. Just be sure to maintain a time horizon that spans several years and decades to reap the benefits.

Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity

Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.

On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:

• Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $284,402!*
• Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $41,312!*
• Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $503,617!*

Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.

Continue »

*Stock Advisor returns as of March 24, 2025

Neil Patel and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The Best Technology ETF to Invest $500 in Right Now was originally published by The Motley Fool

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47.

$14K Investor In TSLA, NVDA, And QQQ Faces Dilemma – 'Looking To Hold For At Least 10 Years' But Is That A Recipe For Disaster? Reddit Debates

2025-03-29 14:00:45 by Paula Tudoran from Benzinga

Knowing which stocks to hold for the long term and which to sell before they drag down your portfolio is a challenge every investor faces at least once in their journey.

Some swear by the “buy and hold” strategy, while others advocate for constant rebalancing of a portfolio to mitigate risk. The issue becomes even more pronounced when a portfolio is heavily condensed in high-growth but volatile sectors like technology.

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One such investor recently took to Reddit to seek advice on his $14,228 portfolio, which includes tech giants like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)​, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, GOOG)), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), alongside ETFs like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) and Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), and even some crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR).

The poster is considering adding Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) to his portfolio but is unsure if now is the right time. He’s also wondering whether to keep high-risk stocks like TSLA, COIN, and MSTR or shift to more stable assets and how to diversify his portfolio further.

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The Reddit community has come forward with plenty of advice in the comments; let’s see what they say.

Hold or Sell? Investor With $14,000 Tech-Heavy Portfolio Ponders Diversification–Reddit Advises Him

Diversify into Other Sectors or Broader ETFs

Many Redditors indicated that the investor’s portfolio is way too concentrated in tech, which increases risk. Instead, they suggested reducing individual stock holdings and adding ETFs to gain exposure to other sectors.

“I am sure you know this, but VOO/QQQ includes all of the individual companies that you have the majority of your portfolio invested in,” a comment says.

Advising the poster to diversify his portfolio, one Redditor suggested choosing either VOO or QQQ, but not both.

“You own good companies! Personally, I would choose one of the two VOO/QQQ not both, but that’s just me and is not really a big deal... Other than that, I like everything else; I think I own all of them, except COIN. Look into buying other sectors, you are too heavily concentrated on tech.”

A commenter advised the poster to add a broad-market ETF to reduce complexity and risk.

“Too complex for this volume, many duplicates and missing diversification. Just do VOO or an [MSCI (NYSE: MSCI)] world index and that's it,” he wrote.

“VOO and QQQ are redundant and lend even more weight to the Mag 7. COIN, MSTR, TSLA, and NVDA are no-go long-term, I think. Try to add something more stable like [Raytheon Technologies (NYSE: RTX)], [UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH)], or [The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO)],” a user suggested.

A Redditor recommended the investor add a mix of ETFs and stable dividend-paying stocks to improve the portfolio’s resilience.

“Continue with VOO, [Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQM)] only, and get some solid plays added from now on, diversify a bit. Can stick with ETFs or index, defense, utilities, energy, health care, precious metals, [Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B)], with the trade war, you need stuff that can survive. Look for some balance now with solid legacy names with dividends,” he wrote.

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Sell TSLA, COIN, and MSTR

The poster’s most controversial holdings were TSLA, COIN, and MSTR, and some commenters argued that he should get rid of them since they’re too risky for a 10-year hold.

“Sell the TSLA and take the win; it's overvalued dramatically,” a comment reads.

“I'd scrub TSLA and MSTR and put it in VOO or QQQ. Tesla's valuation is and has been insane forever, even after the sell-off. The fundamentals are just awful for its valuation. And that's not even dipping into political stuff. Plus, it's already a decent weight in VOO anyway. And MSTR is straight-up junk,” a Redditor said.

This user also suggested selling the three stocks, saying, “I would personally remove MSTR, COIN, and TSLA and buy more of QQQ/VOO.”

“Get rid of TSLA before it wrecks your portfolio!” another comment reads.

One Redditor shared he would never hold MSTR for the long term, and suggested HOOD instead of COIN.

“No way I would hold MSTR for 10 years. You are playing crypto with COIN; in my opinion, HOOD is the better bet now that they are getting into the higher-margin gambling business. If you want Bitcoin exposure, buy [iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT)].

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This article $14K Investor In TSLA, NVDA, And QQQ Faces Dilemma – 'Looking To Hold For At Least 10 Years' But Is That A Recipe For Disaster? Reddit Debates originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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48.

A looming risk to the US economy: Chart of the Week

2025-03-29 10:00:27 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

This is Chart of the Week from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

• The chart of the day

• What we're watching

• What we're reading

• Economic data releases and earnings

Recent consumer sentiment data has been particularly grim. 

Uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policy and its impacts has soured the consumer outlook for the economy, and the latest consumer confidence index reading hit its lowest level in more than four years during March, according to data released on Tuesday from the Conference Board. 

But for now, the souring mood among consumers has only pushed economic forecasters to lower their expectations for growth. While recession risks have risen, it's far from a consensus call on Wall Street. 

And while we may know what might make things turn the corner, its unpleasant corollary is just as important: what could make things worse. 

Our Chart of the Week shows what that thing might be.

The decline in March consumer confidence was broad-based across income groups, with "the only exception being households earning more than $125,000 a year," the Conference Board noted. And it's a theme that's been showing up in other economic data points, most critically in the personal savings rate.

Most consumers don't feel good about the path forward, but high-income earners aren't panicking yet. This raises a key potential turning point for the economic narrative right now.

High-income consumers make up about half of US consumer spending. And if the big spenders are playing Atlas to the US economy right now, how those shoulders hold up is of paramount concern. 

On the one hand, this could keep a lid on the potential impact of a weakening consumer, an economic firewall that staves off a recession.

But should the political uncertainty that's weighed on both consumer sentiment and the stock market keep pressuring stock prices lower, the odds of recession could be on the rise as the high-income demographic spending fails to hold up weakening economic activity.

According to Deutsche Bank senior US economist Brett Ryan, the big risk is how uncertainty affects asset prices. While this demographic is robust, "hitting their asset prices and hitting them meaningfully" is the kryptonite that could push that group into austerity mode. And with it, the economy onto the rocks.

"A 10% pullback in the stock market probably is not going to get the top 20% income cohort to really pull back on spending. A 20%-plus hit to equity prices, that's a different story," Ryan said. For what it's worth, a 20% pullback from recent all-time highs would put the S&P 500 (^GSPC) just above 4,900, or about 12% lower than it is today.

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi first pointed out this concept in Yahoo Finance's Chartbook back in January. Zandi argues that a key post-pandemic trend has been wealthy Americans saving less and spending more, thereby helping drive growth in the US economy amid a higher interest rate environment many thought would bring recession.

Zandi agrees with Ryan that the key risk to this trend would be a larger equity market sell-off. In that instance, wealthier Americans may save more, pushing the national savings rate higher and therefore slowing consumption to a point where the economy could tip into recession.

"The thing to watch is the US savings rate," Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the global chairman of research at Barclays, told Yahoo Finance. "That is the Achilles' heel for the US economy. It is extraordinarily low. It's been low for the last three, three and a half years." 

Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta joined the choir in a Friday note: "one thing that worries me is an increase in the personal saving rate."

Rajadhyaksha echoed Ryan's assertion that "a steady drumbeat" of policy uncertainty, federal job cuts, actual tariffs, and a further equity markets pullback could push the savings rate higher and put a cap on what's been a resilient consumer.

Perhaps not the base case, but something Wall Street is keeping a close eye on.

"The risks are tilted to the downside if April 2 ends up being worse than expected," Rajadhyaksha said ahead of Trump's expected reciprocal tariff deadline. 

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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49.

Stock market today: Dow drops 700 points, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink as Wall Street reels from tariff, inflation fears

2025-03-28 20:00:45 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks tanked on Friday as Wall Street grappled with President Trump's escalating trade war and weighed signs of reinvigorated inflation pressures amid souring consumer sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped more than 700 points or nearly 1.7%, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell almost 2%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 2.7% as tech stocks led the declines. 

The major averages fell on Friday after the release of a hotter-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures index reading, which includes the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge of "core" PCE. The reading showed prices increased more than expected last month, rising 0.4% month over month and 2.8% year over year, continuing a stubborn plateau on the path to the Fed's 2% target.

Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment in March plummeted to its lowest level since November 2022. The latest reading from the University of Michigan came in at 57, down from a 64.7 reading in the prior month, as consumers fretted about inflation and the broader economy, perhaps most notably in the labor market.

On Friday President Trump said he had a "very good talk" with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, his first conversation with him since Carney was elected earlier this month. When asked about tariffs however, the president said he will "absolutely" follow through with levies against the country. 

Stocks have had a roller coaster week, starting off on a high on hopes that Trump would temper his tariff plans and then abruptly diving beginning on Wednesday upon news of new duties on auto imports. 

Markets continued to slide Thursday as Wall Street digested Trump's 25% levies on foreign cars along with more hawkish comments on what lies ahead in the trade war. April 2, the date when broad reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect, is looming large.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Fed officials have projected higher inflation and slower economic growth amid new tariffs, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reassured Wall Street that rising prices will likely be "transitory."

But Powell's words are fading into the background as Trump's trade war escalates and more Fed officials say they aren't exactly sure where the economy goes next, with one policymaker describing the situation as "zero visibility" in a "dense fog."

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow index now forecasts that US gross domestic product (GDP) will fall 2.8% in the first quarter, compared to a previous projection of a 1.8% decline released two days ago. 

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50.

Why Fearful Investors Shouldn’t Take the VIXY ETF Bait

2025-03-28 13:29:08 by TipRanks from TipRanks

You’ve probably heard of the VIX Index before—it’s often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge,” a symbolic barometer for uncertainty in the stock market. If you’re a more seasoned investor, you may have tried investing in one of its indirect proxies: the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY). But here’s the thing: the VIX isn’t something to be traded casually or opportunistically. It’s usually better used as a signal or a tool rather than a trade or an investment.

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I’m bearish on VIXY over the long term. It’s designed in a way that makes it almost certain to decline in value over time. Even in the short term, I don’t expect much—either more of the same slow drift downward or, at best, flatlining while reassuring unnecessarily frightened investors.

What Does the VIX Measure?

Let’s unpack what the VIX index and VIXY ETF are really doing. The VIX measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the next thirty days based on options pricing mathematically tied to the S&P 500 (SPY). When traders are nervous about what might happen in the market—whether it’s inflation, earnings surprises, or geopolitical risks—they buy options to mitigate risk (hedge) in their positions.

Such options become progressively more expensive, which drives the VIX higher. When the VIX rises, it means fear is rising because investors are happy to pay higher premiums to protect against the downside. When the VIX is low, markets are calm because investors feel less need to insure against market turbulence.

Notably, the VIX index doesn’t say anything about the market’s direction. It doesn’t tell you if prices are about to go up or down—only how turbulent the ride might be. That’s a key distinction a lot of new investors miss. A high VIX means traders expect big moves, but not necessarily downward ones.

Enter VIXY, the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF. This isn’t a product that tracks the VIX directly. Instead, it holds futures contracts—essentially short-term bets on where the VIX is going next. So, while it tends to move in the same general direction as the VIX, the relationship isn’t one-to-one. When the VIX surges, VIXY typically rises as well, but it lags.

And when things are calm? VIXY tends to bleed out slowly. That’s thanks to something called “roll cost”. The ETF keeps swapping out old futures contracts for newer ones, which includes fees to roll the position from one contract month to the next, with newer contracts tending to be more expensive. That cost gets passed on to the ETF’s value, and over time, it adds up.

Is VIXY a Good Investment?

At best, VIXY is not a long-term investment in a balanced portfolio. It’s not something investors should buy and hold with aspirations of appreciation over time. VIXY is a tactical tool rather than an outright investment. It shines in moments of panic—think of sudden geopolitical shocks, black swan events, or market-wide sell-offs. When fear spikes, VIXY can act as a lucrative hedge, jumping up quickly and softening the blow to your broader portfolio.

But—and it’s a big but—when market fear recedes, VIXY almost always gives back those gains. And then some. Even in years when volatility was unusually high—take August 2024, for example—VIXY ended the year in the red. That’s because markets eventually calmed down while that persistent rolling cost ate away at VIXY’s net value. In a low-volatility market, VIXY is like a tire with a slow puncture.

So, unless you’re managing risk over very short bursts, VIXY doesn’t really have a place in a traditional portfolio. It’s not a core asset. It’s more like an umbrella: priceless during a storm but rather counterproductive at all other times.

What VIXY Is Telling Us Right Now

VIXY is currently trading at around $45 per share. That’s a steep drop from $55 earlier this month and from $90 in mid-2024. Clearly, the market has settled down somewhat since then. The fear around tariffs, which drove the earlier March spike, seems to have eased.

According to ProShares, the VIXY’s current holdings are split between CBOE VIX Futures with April and May expirations. VIXY holds 66% of its holdings (5,249 contracts) in the April 2025 future for a notional value of $98.9 million and 34% (2,624 contracts) in the May future for a value of $50.2 million. In total, VIXY’s market value stands at $149.15 million.

Looking at the broader VIX Index, it’s now hovering around 18.5. That’s not high. In fact, it’s pretty normal. It suggests that investors, broadly speaking, are feeling reasonably calm about the current economic conditions—despite what the headlines might be saying. For perspective, during the COVID-19 market panic, the VIX hit around 80. During the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, it also hit around 80. Compared to those numbers, 18.5 is tranquil. Still, it’s essential to recognize the VIX’s limitations. It doesn’t forecast future volatility—it reflects current expectations.

On the flip side, Mandy Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOT), recently suggested that today’s ultra-low volatility might signify complacency. In her view, investors may underestimate risk. That’s a fair point—and historically, periods of low volatility have often preceded sharp corrections.

But I disagree with this outlook. I think the Trump administration has a firm grasp of the macroeconomic picture. With leaders like Scott Bessent serving as U.S. Treasury Secretary, I believe a strong fiscal hand is at the wheel. The recent market jitters were mostly about tariffs; even companies like Tesla (TSLA) have advised caution. But that narrative seems to be softening. I see conditions turning favorable for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 and early 2026. That would likely trigger a rally in equities, not a sell-off.

Is VIXY a Good Hedge?

If you’re eyeing VIX or VIXY right now, my stance is simple: don’t take the bait. Buying into VIXY means betting that things will get worse—fast. With a macro view that considers not just market fundamentals but also policy, geopolitics, and sentiment, I believe the risk-reward balance is tilted in favor of risk-on market behavior and, therefore, bullish equities.

VIXY isn’t a buy here. It’s a signal—one that says investors are breathing easier. And that, in turn, sets the stage for potential stock gains. Investors should resist the urge to fight the calm and instead prepare for the next leg of the current bull market.

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