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1.

Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 dive, snap 3-day win streak as Trump preps auto tariffs

2025-03-26 20:05:47 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks closed lower Wednesday as President Trump prepared to unveil new tariffs on US auto imports.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) was down more than 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the losses, sliding over 2%. Tech leaders Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) both closed down more than 5%.

Stocks are on shifting sands as markets respond to changes in tone from Trump on coming tariffs. The White House press secretary said Wednesday that Trump would hold a press conference at 4 p.m. ET to announce new tariffs on auto imports, hitting Tesla and other auto stocks like GM (GM) and Ford (F).

Meanwhile, Wall Street is focused on how "flexible" Trump will be in the reciprocal duties set to take effect on April 2.

In another tone shift, Trump told Newsmax on Tuesday that he "doesn't want to have too many exceptions" to the levies — a potential swing back to the hard line seen earlier in March. Those threats directed at the EU and Canada fueled a sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Also, the White House appears to be accelerating its plans for copper levies. Tariffs on copper imports could be coming within several weeks, months ahead of a deadline for implementing the measures, Bloomberg reported. Copper (HG=F) prices surged to a record on the heels of the news.

In corporates, GameStop (GME) stock jumped over 11% after the video game retailer's approval of a plan to buy bitcoin (BTC-USD) with its cash holdings.

In other economic news, orders for durable goods came in stronger than expected in February, data released Wednesday showed. The 0.9% rise topped expectations for a drop of 1% but undershot January's 3.3% reading.

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2.

IVV Attracts $18.3 Billion; KRE Grows Its Asset Base

2025-03-26 21:00:05 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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3.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge and tariff talk: What to know this week

2025-03-25 21:00:15 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks struggled to gain steam last week as uncertainty around President Trump's tariff plans continued to loom over markets.  

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) popped about 0.5% while the Dow Jones Industrial (^DJI) rose more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added nearly 0.2%.

In the week ahead, a reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will highlight the economic releases. Updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, consumer confidence, and the final reading of fourth quarter economic growth are also expected. 

On the corporate front, quarterly results from Dollar Tree (DLTR), Lululemon (LULU), and KB Home (KBH) will headline a subdued slate of scheduled financial updates. 

'Transitory' returns 

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week while updating its economic forecast to project higher inflation and slower economic growth than previously thought. The median forecast from Fed officials signals two interest rate cuts in 2025, in line with what markets expected headed into the meeting. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitted tariffs have added increased uncertainty to the outlook. He added that the most likely outcome is that higher inflation in 2025 will be a "transitory" impact from tariffs. 

"I think that's kind of the base case," Powell said. "But as I said, we really can't know that. We're going to have to see how things actually work out."

Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments

Wall Street economists and investment strategists largely took the meeting to mean the Fed, like the rest of markets, is in wait-and-see mode in anticipation of Trump's tariff plans. 

"When the path forward is so unclear, you kind of just take it with a grain of salt," Ross Mayfield, Baird Private Wealth Management investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance. "Go back to [the] basics and focus on the drivers of either the individual equities or the sectors in the market that you own."

Anadolu via Getty Images

Price check

While markets are patiently waiting for clarity on when, or if, tariffs could impact inflation, investors will get a look at price increases for the month of February.

Economists expect more signs of stalling inflation in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release due Friday. Economists expect annual "core" PCE — which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy — to have clocked in at 2.7% in February, up from the 2.6% seen in January. Over the prior month, economists project "core" PCE at 0.3%, unchanged from January.

"Inflation remains the big hurdle for consumers, and we forecast some sticky price pressures in the February data," a Wells Fargo team of economists wrote in a note to clients on Friday. 

Read more: $6 eggs and other inflation pain points: Here's where prices are rising

Turning to tariffs

The Federal Reserve provided relief to markets on Wednesday as the central bank continued to project a path for two interest rate cuts in 2025. But the one-day stock rally didn't hold on Thursday and Friday, reflecting the feeling among many market strategists that the main issues plaguing the market over the past month have remained largely unchanged.

22V Research president Dennis Debusschere told Yahoo Finance that now that markets are through the Fed meeting, the focus will shift back to President Trump's tariffs and the possibility of reciprocal duties.

And figuring out how any of those policy plans could impact corporate profits this year is "absolutely what the market's been struggling with" amid the S&P 500's recent 10% decline, per Debusschere. This struggle was front and center on Friday too, as both Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX) stocks dropped after the companies warned that looming economic headwinds such as tariffs could weigh on profits this year.

In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump described April 2 as "liberation day in America." But exactly what will happen remains an open question for markets.

"Until we get to April 2, we're kind of sitting and waiting for some direction and for some clarity," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Kantrowitz argued that policy uncertainty was the leading factor in the recent market sell-off, as that unknown has now clouded the outlook for the Federal Reserve and potentially for corporate earnings. Typically, Kantrowitz said, markets would want more clarity on the initial catalyst that sparked the sell-off before moving higher.

"Usually, [when] the primary catalyst that stops becoming a problem, essentially, that allows the market to find its footing," Kantrowitz said.

Less 'froth' in the market

Whenever there is more clarity on tariffs, strategists believe investors will be greeted with a market that presents a better balanced "risk-reward," as Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients on Friday. 

Chronert's team uses an indicator called the Levkovich Index, which takes into account investors' short positions and leverage, among other factors, to determine market sentiment. The current reading is 0.36, below the 0.38 that signals markets have entered euphoria, or an overstretched peak. Markets had been in euphoria per the index since November 2024.

As seen in the graph below, prior periods where the market extends into euphoric territory are often followed by drawdowns in the market. This recently happened when the market extended into euphoric territory prior to the past month's S&P 500 correction. Chronert noted the recent retreat from euphoric territory signals "some froth has been taken out of the market."

"This is a more balanced starting point for equity markets to manage through evolving first half risks," Chronert wrote.

Weekly Calendar

Monday

Economic data: Chicago Fed activity index, February (-0.14 expected, -0.03 prior); S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (51.5 expected, 52.7 prior); S&P Global US services PMI, March preliminary (51 expected, 51 prior); S&P Global US Composite PMI, March preliminary (51.6 prior)

Earnings: Dragonfly (DFLI), KB Home (KBH), Oklo (OKLO)

Tuesday

Economic data: FHFA house price index, month over month, January (0.3% expected +0.4 prior); S&P CoreLogic CS 20-city year over year, non-seasonally adjusted, January (4.7% expected, 4.48 prior); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (94 expected, 98.3 prior); Richmond Fed manufacturing index, March (6 prior); New home sales month over month, February (+3.5% expected, -10.5% previously)

Earnings: GameStop (GME), McCormick (MKC), Rumble (RUM)

Wednesday

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending March 21 (-6.2 prior); Durable goods orders, February preliminary (-1% expected, +3.2% preliminary) 

Earnings: BRP (DOOO), Chewy (CHWY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Jefferies (JEF), Petco (WOOF)

Thursday

Economic data: Fourth quarter GDP, third revision (+2.3% annualized rate expected, +2.3% previously); Fourth quarter personal consumption, third revision (+4.2% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended March 22, (225,000 expected, 223,00 previously); Pending home sales month over month, February (+1% expected, -4.6% previously)

Earnings: Bitfarms (BITF), Lululemon (LULU), Winnebago (WGO)

Friday

Economic data: PCE inflation, month over month, February (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); PCE inflation, year over year, February (+2.5% expected, +2.5% previously); "Core" PCE, month over month, February (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); "Core" PCE, year over year, February (+2.7% expected; +2.8% previously); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March final (57.9 expected, 57.9 prior) 

Earnings: No notable earnings.

Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the day PCE is scheduled for release. It is slated for Friday.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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4.

Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq notch 3rd day of gains as consumer confidence tumbles, Trump tariffs loom

2025-03-25 20:05:17 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks rose for a third day in a row despite souring consumer confidence — and as investors weighed whether President Trump would temper his plans for upcoming tariffs. 

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose more than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked just above the flatline. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose nearly 0.5%, bolstered by a more than 3% jump from Tesla (TSLA).

Uncertainty about the scope of Trump's upcoming tariffs has investors treading carefully. Stocks soared on Monday amid signs the administration could scale back reciprocal duties due on April 2, with the president saying he “may give a lot of countries breaks."

At the same time, though, Trump said fresh tariffs on the pharmaceutical and auto sectors are coming in the "near future." And in another abrupt salvo, Trump on Monday said the US would impose a "secondary tariff" on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela.

Meanwhile, worries about a risk of US recession persist as fears of tariffs and federal layoffs make headlines. Americans continue to sour on the US economic outlook, as the latest consumer confidence index reading from The Conference Board came in at 92.9 in March, below the 100.1 seen in February and the lowest level in more than four years. 

Quarterly earnings reports from Lululemon (LULU), GameStop (GME), and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are all due this week, with GameStop set to headline Tuesday's releases.

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5.

Economic growth is 'moderating.' But data doesn't show clear signs of a looming recession.

2025-03-25 08:00:12 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The US economy has undergone a narrative shift over the past month. 

After two years of outperforming expectations, it now appears the economy is growing slower than many on Wall Street thought it would to start 2025. But while the economy is cooling, it isn't collapsing. 

"Growth looks like it's maybe moderating a bit, consumer spending moderating a bit, but still at a solid pace," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during his most recent press conference on March 19.

Powell's description of an economy that "seems to be healthy" came after the Fed lowered its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection for 2025 to 1.7% in its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) last week. This marked a move lower from the 2.1% growth the Fed had projected back in December.

Economic forecasters across Wall Street have made similar revisions to their full-year GDP projections based on expectations that President Trump's tariff policies will weigh on business activity. JPMorgan now sees US economic growth of 1.6% this year, down from a prior forecast of 1.9%. Morgan Stanley is now at 1.5%, down from 1.9%, while Goldman Sachs projects growth of 1.7%, down from 2.4%. 

Notably, none of these revisions have been calls for an outright economic downturn or some sort of rapid slowing in economic growth. For instance, in March, Goldman Sachs moved up its probability for a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from a prior projection of 15%. Given the chances of a recession in the next 12 months typically stand at about 15% at any given point in history, Goldman's move to 20% isn't exactly arguing that's the most likely outcome. 

"If you go back two months, people were saying that the likelihood of a recession was extremely low," Powell said. "So, [it] has moved up, but it's not high." 

Powell's assessment of the US economic picture falls in line with what many forecasters have been saying, but it is more optimistic than other data points. Popular betting market Kalshi is now pricing in a 40% chance of recession in the next year, about double the chances that were projected in mid-February. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool recently made headlines, as it's currently forecasting a nearly 2% decline in GDP for the first quarter. And several measures of consumer sentiment have tumbled in the past month as policy uncertainty has made consumers more wary about the economic outlook.

But most of those are indicative of vibes right now as fears of tariffs and federal layoffs make headlines. They don't reflect the reality of the economy's position. 

It's happened before: In 2022, consumer sentiment and confidence measures — both considered "soft" survey data — plunged in a similar fashion. Back then, consumers kept spending, keeping the "hard data," like the monthly retail sales report, afloat. 

In a research note to clients on Sunday, Morgan Stanley's chief global economist wrote that "all the cries about recession" are "probably" overdone. He pointed to January's decline in retail sales spooking investors, only to then be reversed by a gain in February.

The same could be said for S&P Global's flash US composite PMI, which captures activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors. On Monday, the index reading came in at 53.5 for March, a rebound from the 51.6 seen in February and above economists' expectations of 50.9.

S&P Global Market Intelligence chief business economist Chris Williamson wrote in a release Monday morning that his firm's data shows the US economy likely grew at a 1.5% annualized pace during the first quarter of 2025. As Williamson highlighted, this points "to a slowing of GDP growth" compared to the 2.3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. 

Again, this reflects weaker growth but not a catastrophic slowdown. In terms of impacts to the stock market, research from RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina shows that when GDP for the year is between 0.1% and 2%, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) struggles. Notably though, as the chart below shows, stocks do far worse when GDP is between 0.1% and 1%. 

The key investor question right now is whether economic growth forecasts have come down far enough — or if they will keep moving lower and further weigh on stocks. For now, Deutsche Bank senior US economist Brett Ryan tells Yahoo Finance that the current signs of slowing aren't abnormal. 

For instance, consumer spending fell in January for the first time in nearly two years. But the loss came after several strong months of above-trend spending to end 2024. After growing at an "unsustainable pace" to end last year, Ryan said his team had already expected that metric to cool to start 2025. 

"The question is, do we get more than that?" Ryan said. "And at this point, you know, we're not there, given the labor market [is] still OK, and labor income growth is still enough to support consumption." 

Ryan pointed out that if labor market dynamics changed and the US economy started posting monthly job losses or the unemployment rate shot higher, then the outlook for consumer spending would also likely deteriorate. 

But for now, metrics Ryan looks at — like the rolling average of workers continuing to apply for unemployment benefits — are "nowhere near what I would consider sending a recessionary signal."

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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6.

JPMorgan Chase Launches New ETN Betting on Volatility

2025-03-24 23:45:00 by Mallika Mitra from etf.com

Last week, JPMorgan Chase launched its Inverse VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs (VYLD), which seeks to provide exposure to the daily returns of an index shorting futures tied to the Cboe Volatility Index (also known as the VIX). 

The new product is designed to increase 1% for every point decrease that VIX futures experience. In short, investors could benefit from market volatility subsiding.  

The Risk of ETNs

Exchange-traded notes have been out of fashion for a while, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar, told etf.com. “Broadly, ETNs have a bloody history for investors because they tend to be house leveraged and inverse strategies.”

Part of that history includes the inverse VIX ETNs that blew up during 2018’s “volmageddon,” when the VIX increased over 100% in a single trading day causing inverse VIX ETNs to lose over 90% of their value, Armour said. 

But JPMorgan designed this product to perform like the daily points change of VIX futures rather than the percentage change, resulting in lower volatility for the ETN and significantly less risk of succumbing to another “volmageddon” scenario. It also means less upside, since positive returns will also be smaller than the percentage change of VIX futures, according to Armour.

JPMorgan Chase did not immediately respond to etf.com’s request for comment.

The Opportunity for Investors

Markets have experienced turmoil recently due to concerns around tariffs and the potential of an economic recession.

“In 2025, it is likely we will see more equity volatility relative to 2024, which was a benign year in terms of volatility,” Aniket Ullal, head of ETF research at CFRA Research, told etf.com. “This launch is likely in response to expectations that volatility will be higher this year.”

However, while the new product expands the products available, Ullal said investors need to be aware that returns for future-based products can be impacted by roll costs as the fund rolls between futures contracts.

Many investors may also not need this type of exposure.

“Generally, the VIX goes down when the stock market goes up and vice versa,” Armour said. ”This product’s reliance on points-based change rather than a percentage-based change makes it complicated to use as a hedge for some other short exposure. It’s safer than short-VIX predecessors, but its use cases are limited as a result.” 

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7.

ETF Investors Signal Big Shift to Active Strategies

2025-03-24 23:00:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

Ninety-five percent of global ETF investors plan to increase their allocations in 2025, with active ETFs emerging as the clear winner in an evolving market, according to the newly released 2025 BBH Global ETF Investor Survey.

The global ETF market, which surged 27.7% last year to $14.7 trillion, is experiencing a transformation as investors increasingly favor active management over passive approaches, with 97% planning to boost active ETF exposure in the coming year versus 78% in the previous survey.

This flight toward active strategies comes as investors seek better performance in uncertain markets, according to the survey. Despite active ETFs commanding higher fees (0.73% versus 0.43% for passive), investors appear willing to pay a premium for potential outperformance rather than focusing solely on cost efficiency.

Risk Management Drives Investment Choices

Expense ratios ranked only eighth in importance when selecting ETFs, with strategy focus and liquidity/trading costs topping investor priorities. Inflation emerged as the most significant trend influencing investment strategies in 2025, with European (22%) and American (24%) investors focused on this factor, while Greater China investors (28%) expressed more concern about equity valuations, the report reveals.

The survey identified buffered ETFs and fixed-income products as the most attractive investment categories at 29% each, reflecting investors' focus on downside protection in volatile markets.

Cryptocurrency ETFs followed closely at 27%, with 71% of investors planning to increase allocations in this category over the next 12 months—interest was highest in Greater China (80%) and the U.S. (76%).

Competition for Active ETFs Intensifies

Competition among ETF providers is intensifying as 73% of allocators expect to increase the number of issuers they work with this year, according to the report. To differentiate themselves in this crowded marketplace, issuers should focus on providing insightful market research and analysis, valued by 66% of investors, rather than competing solely on fees.

As investors embrace active ETFs, they're simultaneously reducing exposures to index-based ETFs (53%), actively managed separately managed accounts (48%) and index mutual funds (48%) to fund their growing active ETF allocations, signaling a shift in how investment portfolios are being constructed.

The study polled 325 ETF investors across the US, Europe and Greater China between Jan. 24th and Feb. 3rd.

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8.

Nvidia, AMD, Meta lead tech stock rally as tariff news, AI breakthroughs boost sector

2025-03-24 20:02:26 by Myles Udland from Yahoo Finance

Tech stocks led a US stock market rally on Monday, with headlines on more targeted tariff plans from President Trump and a new AI breakthrough from Jack Ma's Ant Group helping boost the sector to start the week. 

Shares of Meta (META) and Nvidia (NVDA) rose 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively, while AMD (AMD) stock rose 6.9% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 2.3% to kick off the final full week of trading for the month of March.

Monday's broad market rally followed reports late Sunday that Trump would narrow the number of US trading partners subject to reciprocal tariffs on April 2. The administration is also reportedly set to limit some industry-specific tariffs that were set to take effect, including those on cars and chips. 

In the tech world, news early Monday out of China that Ant Group, the Jack Ma-backed tech conglomerate, has trained cheaper AI models using Chinese-made chips and those from AMD was the latest sign the AI race continues to push new boundaries. 

Speaking last week at its GTC Conference, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the introduction of lower-cost models — like those most notably put forth by China's DeepSeek — shows the computing needs for AI are actually higher than previously thought. Nvidia's chips are also subject to an export ban from the US in China. 

Read more about Nvidia's stock moves and today's market action.

Earlier this year, Nvidia stock fell over 16% in a single day after DeepSeek's R1 model matched the performance of higher-cost AI models like those from OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) at a fraction of the cost. 

picture alliance via Getty Images

In the weeks since these developments, the industry has seen similar breakthroughs in the same vein as that vocalized by Huang. These reflect the larger-than-imagined potential of even deeper AI investments rather than exposing the limits of current plans. (See also: Jevons Paradox.) 

Also in tech news, a South Korean AI chip startup FuriosaAI reportedly rejected an $800 million offer from Meta. This takes a potential headache away from Meta shareholders, who might have to price in regulatory overhangs and integration costs, and shows AI startups have plenty of confidence to explore the market independently. 

Tech-specific developments, though a boost for the AI trade on the margins, still take a back seat to trade news. And though AI may not be the clearest fundamental winner or loser due to Trump's tariffs, tech's central role in the stock market rally since late 2022 has seen these stocks retain their leadership position on the way up and the way down. 

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

As Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer noted over the weekend, last week's reaction to the Federal Reserve's latest announcement made clear tariffs are — and will be — the key catalyst for markets in the coming weeks. 

Fears about the health of the US economy, the outlook for corporate profits, and the direction of Fed policy have all taken a turn leading the daily market discussion during the S&P 500's swift 10% pullback from its Feb. 19 record close. 

But tariffs have become the clear catalyst in shaping investor sentiment and the market's daily direction. 

First, in their absence. And on Monday, as a positive presence. 

"We are watching headline to headline," Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, told Yahoo Finance last week. "And when didn't we have headlines? We didn't get any headlines out of Washington last Friday [March 14]. We didn't get any headlines out of Washington last Monday [March 17]. Guess what we did? We rallied." 

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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9.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq soar on hopes Trump may dial back next tariff wave

2025-03-24 20:01:01 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks closed near session highs on Monday as investors welcomed reports that the next wave of President Trump's tariffs will be narrower than expected. 

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose almost 1.8% on the heels of the broad benchmark snapping a four-week losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.4%, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, up 2.3%. 

On Monday afternoon, President Trump said he may give "a lot of countries breaks" when it comes to reciprocal tariffs expected April 2. "We may take less than what they're charging because they've charged us so much, I don't think they could take it," Trump said.

This followed news reports from Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal that the US reciprocal tariffs plan may be narrower than previously anticipated. That's providing some relief from fears that an escalating trade war will drive up inflation and further slow the economy.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) rose about seven basis points to 4.33% as worries about a tariff hit to growth and global trade eased and appetite for risk sharpened.

Tesla's (TSLA) stock rallied nearly 12% as markets assessed signs Trump won't unveil tariffs on the auto sector on April 2, as anticipated. Tech stocks more broadly got a bid after Jack Ma's Ant said it expects a hefty cut to AI costs using alternative chips to Nvidia's (NVDA).

US economic output moved higher in March but still reflected an overall growth trajectory for the US economy that was slower than initially hoped in the first quarter, according to S&P Global's flash US composite PMI. 

The highlight of the week's economic data is the release of February's Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, on Friday. 

On the earnings front, quarterly results from Lululemon (LULU), GameStop (GME), and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are due this week.

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10.

Market action shows how tariffs remain the 'primary catalyst' for stocks' recovery

2025-03-24 17:22:00 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

A rally in US stocks Monday amid reports that President Trump's tariffs will be less widespread than feared underscored how more clarity on the administration's new policies remains the key to a market bounce-back. 

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose more than 1.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added about 1.4% or almost 600 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, rising nearly 2.3%. The market rally intensified after President Trump said Monday afternoon he may give "a lot of countries breaks" when it comes to reciprocal tariffs expected April 2.

Tariff uncertainty was a key catalyst for the stock market sell-off over the past month. Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance that he'd be watching for any clarity on those policies as the key turning point for the stock market's drawdown to potentially bottom. 

"Usually, [when] the primary catalyst that stops becoming a problem, essentially, that allows the market to find its footing," Kantrowitz said.

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

Initially, investors had been waiting for April 2, the day Trump dubbed "Liberation Day," for more information on tariffs. But weekend reports indicated that the Trump administration has narrowed its focus on the tit-for-tat duties to what it has called the "dirty 15" countries — which have an unfavorable trade balance with the US. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business last week, "It's 15% of the countries, but it's a huge amount of our trading volume." 

Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee wrote in a note to clients on Sunday night that markets appeared to be "setting up for a potential face-ripper rally this week as recent developments have eased several of the major fears that have weighed on equities since December." 

"Trade war concerns are easing, brightening market sentiment," Lee wrote. 

While Monday's market action shows markets have been hoping Trump's tariffs won't be as widespread as once thought, some equity strategists believe investors likely need official announcements from the administration before the tariff uncertainty overhang on stocks is fully removed. 

"This relief that we're seeing is more a result of the fact that there was no sort of whiplash from the White House last week, and it seems like we've had more marginally positive news with respect to what tariffs might potentially look like on April 2nd," Raymond James chief market strategist Matt Orton told Yahoo Finance Monday morning. "But I don't know if there's too much that we can put into that until we actually have certainty, until we're actually past April 2nd." 

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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11.

Wall Street's S&P 500 forecast range is widening: Chart of the Week

2025-03-22 10:00:25 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

This is from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

• The chart of the day

• What we're watching

• What we're reading

• Economic data releases and earnings

Three Wall Street strategy teams have cut their S&P 500 (^GSPC) outlooks amid the recent market drawdown in markets.

The calls all have a similar flavor. Economic growth forecasts have been falling as the uncertainty around President Trump's policy plans wears on. This comes counter to the environment many expected when consensus projected another year of strong economic growth for the US economy.

At a high level, there's also been a sentiment shift, with strategists now arguing that markets might no longer trade at the extended valuations seen over the past two years, and therefore the benchmark S&P 500 likely won't rise as much. There's also the simple fact that any rally in stocks is coming from a lower starting point and therefore might not see the massive rise required to reach prior targets. 

Still, 16 of the 17 strategists we track at Yahoo Finance forecast the benchmark index rallying from here. 

What stands out now, as the chart below shows, is that there's not much of a clear consensus besides a general idea that stocks will go up at least somewhat.

With an upside range as low as 6,200 and as high as 7,100, forecasters are calling for the S&P 500 to rally anywhere from about 10% to more than 26%.

Broadly, strategists feel the current hesitancy in the stock market will continue until there's more clarity on President Trump's policies. The extent to which stocks rally from there likely depends on the outlook for the economy and corporate profits. 

Deutsche Bank chief strategist Bankim Chadha wrote in a recent research note that if the souring mood about the president's tariff plans prompts a "credible plan to resolve tariff uncertainty, it will allow the business cycle to continue." 

If so, Chadha believes the S&P 500 could hit 7,000 this year.

Meanwhile, other strategists are starting to talk more about how the path ahead might not be so linear. 

"While we don’t believe that a pullback beyond the 10% drawdown that has already been sustained is inevitable, we do believe that the path for stocks between now and December has gotten rockier with stronger headwinds," RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina wrote in a recent note when lowering her year-end S&P 500 target to 6,200 from 6,600. 

Last week, Citi equity strategist Scott Chronert told us about a "sentiment shift" among investors over the past few months as more of their clients have been asking about the chances the S&P 500 hits their "bear case" of 5,500. This is a stark change from the past two years when the prevailing question was whether or not strategists had been bullish enough.

Given the recent drawdown, the question makes sense. Stifel's Barry Bannister is standing by his 5,500 year-end target for the index, the most bearish call on Wall Street entering the year. Bannister believes stocks will stay in the doldrums amid a period of slower economic growth and sticky inflation, which he notes is "historically adverse for the broad equity market."

For what it's worth, that kind of environment could be an interpretation of the Fed's most recent economic forecasts released on Wednesday, which showed the central bank revising inflation projections higher for this year while cutting its economic growth forecast. 

RBC's Calvasina often calls her S&P 500 target a "compass, not a GPS," an idea this column has highlighted before. For now, the arrow is clearly pointed in one direction, with the majority of macro strategists arguing stocks will head higher at some point in 2025. 

But it's hard not to acknowledge the needle on the compass might be wavering a bit, and the argument for where stocks are headed has become far more nuanced — and with less conviction — than the straight line higher of the S&P 500's past two years.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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12.

Wall Street turns attention back to tariffs, AI risks after Powell offers few surprises

2025-03-21 15:21:16 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The Federal Reserve provided relief to markets on Wednesday as the central bank continued to project a path for two interest rate cuts in 2025. But the one-day stock rally didn't hold on Thursday and Friday, reflecting the feeling among many market strategists that the main issues plaguing the stock market over the past month have remained largely unchanged.

22V Research president Dennis Debusschere told Yahoo Finance that now that markets are through the Fed meeting, the focus will shift back to President Trump's tariffs and the possibility of reciprocal duties.

And figuring out how any of those policy plans could impact corporate profits this year is "absolutely what the market's been struggling with" amid the S&P 500's (^GSPC) recent 10% decline, per Debusschere. This struggle was front and center on Friday too, as both Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX) stocks dropped after the companies warned that looming economic headwinds such as tariffs could weigh on profits this year.

The market's tariff concerns have many layers. There's the question of which companies will be impacted by tariffs. There's the question of which companies could be impacted by counter-tariffs. And then there are further questions on how any potential price increases in some industries could also raise prices for other products. Broadly, there are fears that the answers to all of these questions could weigh on consumer spending and economic activity as a whole.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

All of this has led to jerky market action as investors struggle to price in a moving target. As of now, the bulk of President Trump's tariff plans have been delayed until April 2. In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump described April 2 as "liberation day in America." 

But exactly what will happen remains an open question for markets. 

"Until we get to April 2, we're kind of sitting and waiting for some direction and for some clarity," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance. 

Reuters / Reuters

Kantrowitz argued that policy uncertainty was the leading factor in the recent market sell-off, as that unknown has now clouded the outlook for the Federal Reserve and potentially for corporate earnings. Typically, Kantrowitz said, markets would want more clarity on the initial catalyst that sparked the sell-off before moving higher. 

"Usually, [when] the primary catalyst that stops becoming a problem, essentially, that allows the market to find its footing," Kantrowitz said. 

But the S&P 500's 10% fall into correction territory wasn't all about investors selling stocks that could see earnings impacts from tariffs. Largely the index has been weighed down by a rerating of the most popular trade of the past two years, with the "Magnificent Seven" stocks having their worst quarter compared to the S&P 500 since 2022.

Morningstar's chief US market strategist David Sekera described the recent market action as a "bear market in artificial intelligence stocks." Given large-cap tech's outsized position in the S&P 500, some strategists are concerned further downside in those stocks could send the S&P 500 into its own bear market. 

"A key reason we have been forecasting a slump in the S&P 500 in 2026 is an assumption that fading enthusiasm for AI would prompt a valuation-driven slide in the index then rather than in 2025," Capital Economics chief markets economist John Higgins wrote. "Accordingly, it is possible the bursting of the AI bubble is just happening sooner than we had envisaged." 

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

---

13.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall after Fed-fueled rally stalls

2025-03-20 20:01:43 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks slipped on Thursday, failing to build on a Wednesday rally fueled by reassuring signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank held interest rates steady.

The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell about 0.3%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) declined by 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ended the session just below the flat line. All three major averages saw gains earlier in the trading day before ultimately losing steam.

The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday was expected on Wall Street, but markets rallied, driven by a sense of relief that prior forecasts for two rate cuts this year held up. Doubts had been rising about the path to rate cuts amid concerns the US economy might buckle under President Trump's broad plans for tariffs. 

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

In a press conference following the decision, Powell contributed to the good mood. The Fed chair reassured investors that inflation impacts from tariffs will likely be "transitory" and recession risks remain low. 

But Powell's comments came after the Fed, in updated projections, revised upward its forecast for inflation at the end of this year while sharply lowering its forecast for economic growth. Those broader economic sentiments have been weighing on markets for much of the past two months, with both the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq sliding into correction territory.

For his part, Trump — who has largely refrained from weighing in on Fed policy thus far in a U-turn from his first term — looked set to amp up pressure on the central bank.

"The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy," he posted on social media late Wednesday.

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14.

Aggressive Trader With Nearly $1M in Play Bets Big On Market Drop—'What If We Don't Get There?'—Reddit Debates His High-Risk Strategy

2025-03-19 17:07:21 by Paula Tudoran from Benzinga

Market downturns can be both terrifying and opportunistic for investors because while some see drops as a reason to panic, others view them as a chance to buy assets at a discount.

Still, investing during a market decline is not without risks, especially when using high-risk strategies like leveraging ETFs or betting heavily on a continuous downturn. One Reddit user has sparked a lively debate with his very aggressive approach to the current market.

The poster, in his 30s with nearly $1 million to invest, is betting big on a further market drop. He has already committed $370,000 to this approach, which involves selling Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and using the proceeds to buy ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:TQQQ)–a 3x leveraged version of QQQ–and is willing to invest another $550,000.

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“Normally, I hold QQQ and sell monthly calls [out of the money] with a .15 delta. Try to make 4%-7% on top with dividends. Now that TQQQ is coming down, I am selling QQQ, doing some tax loss harvesting, and buying TQQQ (1x->3x). The price target for sale is $86. Hoping the market will keep dropping. I swap 50 shares of QQQ for every 1% it drops. I estimate I’ll be out of money around 25%-35%, depending on how closely I stick to the plan,” he wrote.

But his strategy isn’t without concerns. He questions whether the market will actually drop that much, asking, “What if we don't get there?” The Reddit community had plenty to say about the investor’s strategy, so let’s dive into the comments they left.

Trending: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates.

Betting Big on Market Drop–Reddit Has a Lot to Say

Leveraged ETFs are Way Too Risky

Several commenters highlighted the fact that while many investors use leveraged ETFs to amplify their returns, they are risky and urged the poster to proceed with caution.

“Taking profits? My dude, TQQQ is going under $35 by May. I do swing trade just because of the values and % of my portfolio, but [ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (NASDAQ: SQQQ)] will still outperform just about any bearish tech strategy unless you just get super lucky with puts,” a commenter said.

One Redditor explained the concept of decay, which can erode returns over time, meaning that even if the market goes sideways or stabilizes, the investor’s TQQQ holdings could lose value.

“It’s called decay and it happens due to volatility (happens to everything that can be publicly traded, actually) and due to borrowing costs for the leverage. Borrowing costs increase when interest rates are higher, and decrease when interest rates are lower. So over time, even if the price of the underlying stays flat, the price of a leveraged ETF will converge to zero,” he wrote.

Another user reinforced the idea that leveraged ETFs aren’t ideal for long-term holding.

“I would be taking profits soon. S—t decays so fast,” he said.

While most comments were against the investor using this strategy, some Redditors shared they also employ this approach and agree with it.

“Wow, I actually am using the same method. I will sell 10 shares of QQQ to exchange TQQQ for every 1% drop. My average cost is $67. However, I only have $150,000 in total before the deadline,” a Reddit user shared.

See Also: Have $200K saved? Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth

Timing is Everything With High-Risk Strategies

Redditors also cautioned the investor to time the trades well by aligning them with the market momentum rather than fighting it and holding.

“You didn’t learn an even more valuable lesson: Don’t fight the momentum! The momentum has been down, down, down. Until we get economic data, policy data, and/or technical indicators that show the momentum is changing, play the momentum! You didn’t learn your lesson well. You let [fear of missing out] on a reversal (greed) determine your trade, instead of letting market momentum dictate the trade. And now you are paying the piper,” a user wrote.

A commenter offered a counterpoint, suggesting that the market may have already bottomed out.

“I think we bottomed today. There’s no real reason for the sell-off other than fear and over-leverage. It will come back in time. Per seasonality, April and May are strong months so might as well position now even if we may still be volatile in the short term,” he said.

“Once tariffs raise prices in the next months, then hit [consumer price index] and inflation pops up, then the Fed raises rates, we'll be in a longer cycle bear market and TQQQ will bottom after the sell-off. Probably 9-12 months from now,” another Redditor warned.

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This article Aggressive Trader With Nearly $1M in Play Bets Big On Market Drop—'What If We Don't Get There?'—Reddit Debates His High-Risk Strategy originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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15.

A Brief History of Fed Funds Moves in the 21st Century

2025-03-19 14:15:00 by Mark Vickery from Zacks

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Later today, after market trajectories have been active for hours, we’ll see the latest monetary policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is almost 100% certain to render an unchanged verdict to the +4.25-4.50% Fed funds rate that has been with us since mid-December of last year. 

Following the statement — which will include a new "dot-plot" to map out where the Fed sees future moves — Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give his customary press conference to enhance the statement presented by the Fed. In a general sense, Powell’s tenure (he’s currently serving the third year of his second four-year term) has continued to be relatively open and non-opaque in his methods and thought processes, even if his statements do roil markets every so often.

Powell’s Fed peaked interest rates at +5.25-5.50% from September 2023 for a full year. The last time the Fed funds rate was that high was for a couple months in early 2001, shortly after the Supreme Court decided the Bush v. Gore presidential election. Yet when Powell & Co. slashed rates to 0.00-0.25% in March 2020 as the Covid epidemic charged through the world, it was the second cut to zero, after Fed Chair Ben Bernanke made the move in December 2008 amid the financial collapse stemming from bank deregulation and mortgage-asset fraud.

In short, it’s been an eventful first quarter of the 21st century for the U.S. — indeed, for the world. And, with new big policy shifts from the second Trump administration — from DOGE government job cuts to tariffs levied at our biggest trading partners — the eventfulness looks to continue. Thus, what the Fed and Powell have to say about the state of the economy today should have plenty of fresh material, and will be parsed finely.

Keep in mind nearly all economic and labor-oriented reports have been relatively well-behaved over the past several months. We’ve seen some inflation creep off the bottom (only a few metrics ever got as low as +2%, and never for very long) and employment levels have remained strong despite some radical moves made in recent weeks. We also know these economic reports are mostly backward-looking, so we may be experiencing some erosion in the Fed’s key metrics without yet seeing it. How far into speculating about our near-future economy will the Fed and Powell be willing to go? We look forward to finding out.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research

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16.

Why this strategist raised their recession odds

2025-03-19 11:00:06 by Yahoo Finance from Yahoo Finance Video

You can catch Trader Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. On this week’s Trader Talk, host Kenny Polcari stresses that emotional trading—chasing hot stocks or panic-selling at minor dips—is a surefire way to lose. Instead, decisions should hinge on strategy and data. Guest Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, raised her US recession odds to 30–35%, citing four simultaneous “swing factors”: tariffs, China’s stimulus uncertainty, renewed inflation pressures, and looming spending cuts. This combination has rattled corporate plans and heightened market volatility. The bottom line? Markets hate guesswork and emotional overreactions. Polcari and Hooper agree that level-headed, well-researched approaches outperform impulsive trades every time. Porcini Rubbed Rib-Eye (Tagliata Style) Ingredients Porcini Rub1 oz dried porcini mushrooms (ground into a fine powder)2 tablespoons sugar1 tablespoon salt & pepper (combined)4 garlic cloves, chopped¼ cup olive oil Steak & Garnish1 bone-in rib-eye steak (or preferred cut)Additional salt (for seasoning the steak)1 tablespoon olive oil (for searing)Arugula (a handful)Thinly sliced red onion1 lemon (for fresh lemon juice)Shaved parmesan cheese Steps Make the Porcini RubCombine the ground porcini, sugar, salt & pepper, chopped garlic, and olive oil in a bowl.Mix into a paste-like consistency.(Optional: Make a larger batch to store in the fridge for future use.) Season & RubLightly salt the rib-eye.Massage the porcini rub all over the steak, coating thoroughly. Preheat OvenHeat your oven to 400°F. Sear the SteakHeat 1 tablespoon of olive oil in a large cast iron skillet over medium-high heat.Carefully place the steak in the hot skillet and sear until browned on each side. Finish in the OvenMove the cast iron skillet with the steak into the preheated oven.Cook for 5–8 minutes, depending on thickness, until an instant-read thermometer in the center reaches 135°F (for medium-rare). Rest the SteakRemove from the oven and tent the steak with foil.Let it rest for 10 minutes to retain its juices. Slice & PlateSlice the steak at an angle (tagliata style) and fan out on a serving platter.Arrange arugula and red onion slices on the plate.Place the sliced steak on top, drizzle with a bit more olive oil and a squeeze of fresh lemon juice.Top with shaved parmesan cheese. Watch more episodes of Trader Talk here. Trader Talk with Kenny Polcari on Yahoo Finance delivers expert analysis and actionable insights, empowering you to navigate market volatility and secure your financial future. This post was written by Langston Sessoms.

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17.

Stock market today: Nasdaq leads stocks lower, Nvidia falls over 3% as tech rout resumes ahead of Fed decision

2025-03-18 20:03:44 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks pulled back on Tuesday, led by a nearly 2% decline in the Nasdaq, following two days of gains as investors concerned about an economic slowdown looked to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for insights.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) plummeted about 1.7% as Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell roughly 3% as its annual GTC event failed to impress investors. Other "Magnificent Seven" names also dragged down the tech-heavy index. Notably, those stocks are having their worst quarter in more than two years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) also moved to the downside on Tuesday, dropping about 0.6% and 1.1%, respectively.

Uncertainty still dogs markets as investors debate whether the sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory is over. Traders now turn their attention to the Fed's two-day policy meeting, which kicked off on Tuesday, for clues on the health of the economy and potential tariff risks.

Policymakers are largely expected to hold rates steady in their decision on Wednesday.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

The kickoff of Nvidia's biggest conference of the year — the annual GTC event — was in the spotlight earlier in the trading day, with CEO Jensen Huang telling a sold-out crowd that AI is at an "inflection point." 

During his keynote, Huang revealed General Motors (GM) is partnering with Nvidia to build its own self-driving cars. Shares of GM closed down around 1% following the news, with some analysts pointing to the high cost of Nvidia chips relative to competitors.

Huang also touted the debut of the company's Blackwell Ultra AI chip, set to arrive in the second half of this year. In addition to the Blackwell Ultra chip, Nvidia also announced its GB300 superchip, which combines two Blackwell Ultras with the company's Grace central processing unit (CPU). 

As Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley noted, the chips are designed to power AI systems for customers ranging from hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) to research labs around the world.

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18.

Investors ditch US stocks in 'bull crash': Bank of America

2025-03-18 15:10:19 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Investors' uber bullish sentiment for US stocks came to a screeching halt over the past month.

Bank of America's latest Global Fund Manager Survey of 171 participants conducted in March showed the biggest monthly drop in investors' allocation to US equities on record, with the allocation falling 40% month-over-month. As recently as December, investors' allocation to US stocks had been at an all-time high.

A team of Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett described the move in the March survey as a "bull crash," with investor appetite for US stocks tumbling amid the 10% drawdown in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) over the past month. The rotation went into cash, per Bank of America's survey, not bonds. 

The swift nature of the correction in the S&P 500 could be seen as a buy sign. But as Hartnett's team points out, the recent market moves are more a flushing out of uber bullishness rather than an obvious catalyst for a contrarian trade. For instance, investors' portfolio allocation to cash rose from 3.5% to 4.1%, the largest one month rise since December 2021. But still cash levels remain well below the more than 6% level seen in October 2022 when Wall Street's consensus call projected an incoming recession.

Hartnett wrote the current sentiment levels are nowhere near "close-your-eyes-and-buy levels."

And as Wall Street strategists have pointed out recently, part of the reason right now might not be an obvious "buy the dip" moment comes back to what sent stocks down in the first place.

A chart in BofA's survey shows 55% of respondents believe the biggest risk to markets is that the "trade war triggers global recession." This marked the highest conviction in a risk since the pandemic topped the list in April 2020.

But despite a roughly 3% pop in stocks over the past two sessions, not much has changed in the trade war or growth scare story over the past week.

Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson told clients on Sunday that "a tradable rally" is possible in markets. But Wilson doesn't see a sustainable rally to new record highs "until the numerous growth headwinds are reversed" or the Fed resumes interest rate cuts.

The next major test for the markets is set for Wednesday with the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. With markets widely expecting the central bank to hold interest rates steady, investors will focus on any clues about when the central bank could cut rates again. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference is slated for 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday. 

NurPhoto via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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19.

Stock market today: Dow gains 350 points as stocks climb for 2nd day after S&P 500 enters correction

2025-03-17 20:00:32 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks climbed on Monday, with focus on more mixed economic data ahead of this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained about 0.6% to rebound for a second day in row, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained more than 350 points, or more than 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.3% as "Magnificent 7" stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), faltered.

The gauges continued a climb after a sell-off that saw the S&P 500 enter correction territory and the Dow book its worst weekly performance since March 2023. Markets have been buffeted by economic slowdown fears and uncertainty over Trump's unpredictable tariff policy. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent inflamed those worries on Sunday when he told NBC that he's not worried about the recent slump in stocks, saying "corrections are healthy." He added that there are "no guarantees" the US will avoid recession. 

On Monday, rate-cut bets this year rose after a fresh print showed retail sales increased less than expected in February, while January's reading was revised lower. 

Monthly retail sales were up 0.2%, versus estimates of a 0.6% rise, while the previous month's 0.9% drop was revised to a fall of 1.2%. 

Meanwhile, the New York Fed's reading on manufacturing activity in New York state showed a sharp pullback in March, with the headline business conditions index falling to -20 from a reading of 5.7 in February.

Wall Street is also bracing for the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting starting Tuesday, where it is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates. Investors will look for any sign that Trump's policies are changing the central bank’s views of the future of the economy.

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20.

RBC lowers S&P 500 year-end target, citing economic growth concerns

2025-03-17 14:39:10 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Another Wall Street strategist is lowering her year-end target on the S&P 500 (^GSPC), citing economic growth concerns.

Following the S&P 500's recent 10% drawdown, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina lowered her year-end target to the S&P 500 to 6,200 from 6,600. Calvsina's revised outlook on the S&P 500 comes after both Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research lowered their targets last week. 

"While we don’t believe that a pullback beyond the 10% drawdown that has already been sustained is inevitable, we do believe that the path for stocks between now and December has gotten rockier with stronger headwinds," Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Sunday night. 

A gloomier outlook on US economic growth from the RBC Capital Markets economics team contributed to the more subdued S&P 500 projection. RBC's economic forecasters now project the economy to grow 1.6% this year, down from a prior estimate of 2%. Calvsina noted that the stock market has often fallen in years when GDP is in a "sluggish" range of 1.1%-2%.

"Some economic forecasters around the Street have started to dial down their 2025 GDP forecasts, but are not calling for a recession," Calvasina wrote. "Historically, the dialing down of economic growth on its own presents a significant headwind for the stock market to overcome."

Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin also highlighted a cut to GDP forecast from Goldman's economics team when moving his target to 6,200 from 6,500.

"Our revised estimates reflect the recently reduced GDP growth forecast of our US Economics team, a higher assumed tariff rate, and higher level of uncertainty that is typically associated with a greater equity risk premium," Kostin wrote.

With slower economic growth expected and several companies already trimming their first quarter forecasts, Calvasina now sees earnings per share for the S&P 500 ending 2025 at $264, lower than her team's prior projection of $271. Calvsina also projects a lower possible bear case, now seeing a potential scenario where the S&P ends 2025 at 5,550, down from a prior forecast of 5,775. The bear case would represent another 2% fall for the benchmark index from current levels. 

For now, the new base case of 6,200 bakes in the idea that the S&P 500 has likely seen — or closed near —its lows for the year. But Calvasina's conviction on that call "isn't incredibly high." 

Recent survey data from consumers and businesses has deteriorated over the past several months as concerns over the impact of President Trump's tariff policies have weighed on the market mood. For now, there hasn't been much feed-through from those so-called soft data points to hard data like the monthly jobs report.

If the hard data weakens from here, then there is likely more downside for the benchmark index as Calvasina's GDP research shows. If GDP growth were to fall in the range of 0% to 1% this year, lower than RBC currently projects, the S&P 500 would typically have an even worse year than if the US economy grows in a range of 1.1% to 2%. 

"The vibes have helped us understand why the stock market has been getting hit so hard, and why concerns about the direction of the economy are rising," Calvasina wrote. "But the vibes aren’t sending us a clear signal about whether, even with the S&P 500 down 10% from all time highs, a contrarian buying opportunity is at hand."

ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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21.

Retail sales rise less than expected in February

2025-03-17 12:35:34 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Retail sales rose less than expected in February and saw downward revisions for January amid fears the US economy may be growing slower than Wall Street initially thought to start 2025. 

Headline retail sales rose 0.2% in February, less than the 0.6% increase economists had expected, according to Census Bureau data. Retail sales in January were revised lower to a decline of 1.2% from a prior reading that showed a 0.9% decrease in the month.

"We kind of bounced back from that low January, and we're right back where we were in December," Bank of America senior US economist Stephen Juneau told Yahoo Finance. 

He added, "Until you see cracks on the labor market side, you're just not really going to see a big slowdown on the consumer overall."

The control group in Thursday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, rose 1%. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase. However, January's control group sales number was revised to a 1% decline, lower than initial 0.8% fall reported.

February sales, excluding auto and gas, rose 0.5%, above consensus estimates for a 0.4% increase. 

"Although retail sales only edged up in February, the much larger rebound in control group sales — which feeds into the [Bureau of Economic Analysis] consumption estimate — is something of a relief," Capital Economics deputy chief North America economist Stephen Brown wrote in a note to clients. "Consumer spending is on track to slow sharply this quarter, but not by as much as we previously feared."

The February report comes amid a shifting narrative surrounding the US economy. January's retail sales reading marked the worst retail sales report in a year and was one of the first data points that kicked off the market's rerating of the US economy's growth outlook over the past month. 

As economic forecasts have tumbled in recent weeks amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff policy, major stock indexes have sold off. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) entered Monday's trading session off more than 8% from its most recent record close on Feb. 19. 

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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22.

1 High-Powered ETF That Can Turn $340 a Month Into $1 Million

2025-03-17 09:13:00 by David Jagielski, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

If you want to get your portfolio to $1 million by the time you retire but you don't have a big lump sum of money to invest in today, you can start by investing every month. And if you can maintain that habit over the long term, your gains can be significant, potentially putting you on track to end up with a portfolio worth at least $1 million.

I'll show you how investing $340 per month could eventually result in a portfolio balance of $1 million, and that's even if you factor in a slowdown in the markets in the years ahead. If the market performs better, your balance may end up significantly higher.

An ideal fund to invest into on a regular basis

When you're investing for the long term, it's important to have a go-to investment to put money into on a regular basis. This way, you average out your cost; you aren't worried about timing the market and trying to find the precise and best time to buy shares of a business. By continually adding to your position, you'll spread your average cost over not only months, but years as well.

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) that can be suitable for this approach is the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ). It tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, which includes the top nonfinancial stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. It's a great way to invest in top growth stocks without having to worry about how that list may change over time; the index does the rebalancing for you.

And the Invesco fund charges a fairly modest expense ratio of 0.2%. It's arguably a reasonable fee to pay, given the massive, market-beating returns it has generated for investors over the past decade.

Here's a how a $340-per-month investment will grow over the years

The big question when trying to project a future portfolio balance is what the average, annual return will be. Historically, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has generated average returns of about 10%. And if the Invesco fund has soundly outperformed it, you might assume that it'll continue doing so and that you perhaps should expect a higher annual return of 11% or 12% -- maybe even higher than that.

The danger, however, is that with growth stocks performing so well over the past few years, a slowdown may be inevitable. If you use conservative estimates, you can ensure you aren't making projections based on an ideal scenario.

In the table, you'll see what your portfolio balance might look like after 30-plus years of making monthly investments of $340, assuming annual growth rates between 8% and 10%.

	Growth Rate
Year	8%	9%	10%
30	$510,100	$627,121	$774,971
31	$556,700	$690,234	$860,428
32	$607,167	$759,267	$954,834
33	$661,822	$834,776	$1,059,126
34	$721,014	$917,368	$1,174,338
35	$785,120	$1,007,708	$1,301,614

Calculations by author.

While it may take over 30 years for this size of an investment to grow your portfolio to $1 million, it may take less time if the markets perform better, or if you invest more money along the way.

Staying the course, and staying invested, can lead to great returns for investors

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett once said, "The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect." If you can resist the temptation to make moves due to emotions, that can help you in achieving your goals for retirement. While it may be temping to invest in the latest hot trend, that can end up doing much more harm than good.

Investing is a long-term process, and while some investors may score big short-term profits, doing so often requires taking on considerable risk. With an ETF like the Invesco Trust, you're getting exposure to top stocks while also keeping your risk relatively low over the long haul.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

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1 High-Powered ETF That Can Turn $340 a Month Into $1 Million was originally published by The Motley Fool

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23.

'A sentiment shift': What Wall Street is saying after the S&P 500's 10% tumble

2025-03-16 13:30:45 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has entered correction, falling 10% from its February all-time highs as political uncertainty has driven fears over the market outlook.

"There's been a sentiment shift," Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert told Yahoo Finance. "The sentiment and the client and investor focus has completely swung upside down versus where we started the year." 

Entering 2025, the consensus on Wall Street called for the US economy to grow at a healthy pace and lead to continued outperformance of the US equity market against the rest of the world. Now, the prevailing market fear is that President Trump's current economic policies — namely tariffs, federal job cuts, and strict immigration — could further slow economic growth. This has prompted several economic research teams to lower their GDP forecasts, some strategists to cut their year-end S&P 500 targets, and stocks around the rest of the world to outperform the US market. 

Still, few are calling for an overall lackluster year in US stocks. In a note to clients last week, Yardeni Research cut its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target from 7,000 to 6,400, which represents a roughly 14% increase from current levels. Notably, the forecast didn't come with a projection for lower earnings growth this year. Instead, the Yardeni team is now just assuming the S&P 500 won't return its record-high valuation seen entering the year. 

"We still think earnings growth is going to be good," Yardeni Research chief markets strategist Eric Wallerstein told Yahoo Finance. "There hasn't been a lot that's actually fundamentally changed about the economy. It's more so just uncertainty is weighing on [valuation] multiples."

Read more: What is a recession, and how does it impact you?

To Wallerstein's point, while views on the economic outlook have soured, most economists and equity strategists aren't actually calling for a recession. And some have even argued that since the S&P 500 has sold off so far on the growth concerns, the market's rerating may be overdone. BlackRock's chief investment and portfolio strategist for the Americas Gargi Chaudhuri told Yahoo Finance her team remains "overweight US equities."

"We're not really worried about a recession yet," Gargi Chaudhuri said. "So if there was a concern around recession, the conversation that we would be having would be a little bit different right now. This is just a pullback from some of the price to perfection that we had in the beginning of the year coming into this year, and this is a healthy pullback." 

Research from Carson Group chief markets strategist Ryan Detrick shows 10% corrections not only happen quite frequently but often end up being the main event instead of extending to a bear market, defined by a 20% drop from an all-time high.

Detrick's work shows that since World War II, the S&P 500 has experienced 48 corrections. But only 12 of those corrections have turned into bear markets, meaning 75% of the time, a correction doesn't spiral all the way down to a bear market.

"We do not see a bear market coming," Detrick told Yahoo Finance. "Early in the post-election year, choppiness is normal and that's kind of what's happening."

The swift nature of the recent pullback is also typically a good barometer for how the index bounces out of a correction, according to BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski. In a research note on Friday, Belski highlighted that outside of the pandemic, no correction since World War II that happened as quickly as the current one has led to a bear market.

"These types of corrections that happen this fast go right back up and recover just as fast, if not more," Belski told Yahoo Finance. He added that this makes him "very comfortable" with his 6,700 year-end target for the S&P 500.

"In terms of fundamentals, they're still flashing green, not yellow, not red," Belski said.

Spencer Platt via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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24.

A Fed meeting and retail sales data greet a flailing stock market: What to know this week

2025-03-16 11:42:18 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The stock market has sunk near a six-month low as concerns over slowing economic growth and fear of how tariffs could impact the outlook have shaken investor confidence. 

Last week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell nearly 2.3% while the Dow Jones dropped 3%, or more than 1,300 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell about 2.4%. On Thursday, the S&P 500 officially entered a correction as the benchmark index fell 10% from its record high on Feb. 19. 

In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve and the health of the US economy will remain top of mind for investors. The central bank is largely expected to hold interest rates steady when it announces its next monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets will focus on any clues about when the central bank could cut rates again. 

Monday's release of February retail sales is set to highlight the weekly slate of scheduled economic data releases. On the corporate front, quarterly results from Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), and Micron (MU) after the bell on Thursday will be closely tracked. 

A patient Fed

The recent sell-off in stocks has coincided with growing market fears about slowing economic data, pushing investors to price in roughly three interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025. 

But with inflation still well above the Fed's 2% target and possible impacts from the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies potentially boosting price increases further, the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. 

Key to watch will be the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). That includes its "dot plot," which maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future, as well as commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his press conference.

When the Fed last issued its dot plot in December, the median forecast was for the fed funds rate to end 2025 in a range of 3.75% to 4%, which would reflect two 25 basis cuts this year, one less than market expectations.

Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen said that with fiscal policy uncertainty continuing to weigh on the outlook, he expected that the Fed "communicates a heavy dose of patience."

"Chair Powell is likely to sound cautiously optimistic on the economy, but point to a cloudy outlook since policy uncertainty is high," Gapen wrote. 

Consumer report card 

The worst retail sales report in a year was one of the first data points that kicked off the market's rerating of the US economy's growth outlook over the past month. 

On Monday morning, investors will get another look at whether January's 0.9% decline in retail sales was the start of a slowdown in consumer spending. Economists expect a rebound in February's numbers, with consensus projecting retail sales to rise 0.6%.

"The belt tightening in January followed a relatively impressive holiday season in November and December, which had sales revised even higher," Wells Fargo's team of economists led by Jay Bryson wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "The pullback in January, then, might say more about the strong end to the 2024 holiday shopping season, rather than a bend in consumer spending."

Given the recent drawdown in stocks amid growth fears, strategists have noted that any signs of better economic growth could be a catalyst for markets. And on the flip side, any further souring could pressure stocks more. 

"The key market risk going forward is a major further deterioration in the economic outlook," Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a note to clients that included a cut of their year-end S&P 500 target to 6,200 from 6,500.

It's still a 'Magnificent 7' market

The past month's dramatic market rout was headlined by significant selling in the so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks.

Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are all off about 20% from their recent 52-week highs. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) is down nearly 50% from its high over the past year. 

Still, the combination of stocks makes up about 30% of the S&P 500's market cap, not far off their mid-30% peak weighting seen in 2024. And as recent market action has shown, their direction remains critical to where the market heads next. 

"For the market to go higher from here, you need the broadening thesis to happen, but you need your Mag Seven to contribute," Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert told Yahoo Finance.

Chronert added that the "structural growth component" remains intact for the cohort that's led the S&P 500's earnings gains over the past several years. BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski echoed Chronert's sentiment about the group's importance. 

"Maybe these tech stocks got ahead of their skis a little bit," Belski told Yahoo Finance. "But at the end of the day, these are monster companies that define the growth trajectory for the United States stock market. They are not going away."

Weekly calendar

Monday

Economic data: Retail sales month over month, February (+0.6% expected, -0.9% prior); retail sales excluding auto and gas month over month, February (+0.5% expected, -0.5% prior); retail sales control group month over month, February (+0.4% expected, -0.8% prior); NAHB Housing Market Index, March (42 expected, 42 prior)

Earnings: No notable earnings releases expected.

Tuesday

Economic data: Housing starts month over month, February (+0.8% expected, -9.8% prior); building permits month over month, February (-1.6% expected, -0.6% prior); import price index month over month, February (-0.1% expected, +0.3% prior)

Earnings: XPeng (XPEV)

Wednesday

Economic data: FOMC interest rate decision (unchanged)

Earnings: Five Below (FIVE), General Mills (GIS), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

Thursday

Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ending March 15 (224,000 expected, 220,000 prior); Philadelphia Business Outlook, March (10.3 expected, 18.1 prior); leading index, February (-0.2% expected, -0.3% prior), existing home sales, February (-3.4% expected, -4.9% prior)

Earnings: Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FedEx (FDX), Land's End (LE), Lennar (LEN), Micron (MU), Nike (NKE)

Friday

Economic data: No notable economic data releases.

Earnings: Carnival Corporation (CCL), NIO (NIO)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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25.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 soar, Nasdaq rebounds in best day since November to cap volatile week

2025-03-14 20:00:45 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks bounced back sharply on Friday to cap a volatile week on Wall Street as the risk of a government shutdown eased while investors stayed on watch for the next move in an escalating trade war.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed more than 2.1% after the benchmark index sank on Thursday to close in correction territory. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped over 2.6% as tech stocks soared. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up more than 600 points, or 1.6%. 

Stocks have had a rough week as uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff shifts whipsawed markets and overshadowed otherwise encouraging signals about the economy. All three major gauges registered weekly losses of more than 2% after the S&P 500 (^GSPC) joined the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) in correction.

It took less than a month for the benchmark index to fall into correction, the fifth-fastest such move in the past 75 years, according to Ritholtz Wealth Management.

But Wall Street spirits brightened as Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer backed off a threat to block a funding bill aimed at averting a government shutdown at the weekend.

At the same time, gold (GC=F) broke above $3,000 an ounce for the first time amid warnings about the economic damage from Trump's tariffs. On Thursday, Trump said he didn't plan to "bend at all" in the escalating round of tit-for-tat tariffs with America's biggest trading partners.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariff plans

Concerns that the US economy is showing signs of strain have receded after data this week showed inflation heading in the direction desired by the Federal Reserve, which holds its policy meeting next week. But the details of that data could give policymakers pause for thought.

It's clear, however, that consumers are feeling less and less enthused about the state of their pocketbooks. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey came in at 57.9 on Friday, well below expectations of 63.

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26.

Americans sour on economy as inflation expectations hit highest level since 1991

2025-03-14 14:56:31 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Consumer sentiment tumbled in March as the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and elevated price increases remain top concerns for Americans.

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment hit its lowest level since November 2022. The index slid to a reading of 57.9, below the 64.7 seen last month and the 63 expected by economists.

Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again in March as one year-inflation expectations jumped to 4.9% from 4.3% the month prior. Just two months ago, consumers had only expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year.

Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, climbed, too, hitting 3.9% in March, up from 3.4% in February. This marks the highest level of long-term inflation expectations since 1991. Also in the release, the expected change in unemployment hit its lowest level since the Great Financial Crisis.

"While current economic conditions were little changed, expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets," University of Michigan Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release. "Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors." 

Hsu added that frequent gyrations in economic policies make it "very difficult" for consumers to plan for the future and therefore weigh on sentiment. The recent tumble in consumer sentiment has come as the new Trump administration has slapped tariffs on imports from multiple countries but frequently flip-flopped on what the actual tariff rates will be and when they'll be implemented. The European Union and Canada have now also threatened retaliatory tariffs on the United States.

The tariff back-and-forth largely hasn't hit incoming inflation data yet. Earlier this week, a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that its "core" Producer Price Index (PPI) — which tracks the price changes companies see and excludes food and energy — rose 3.4% from the year prior, down from the 3.6% seen in January. The day before, the bureau's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed core prices rose 3.1% in February, the lowest yearly increase in core CPI since April 2021.

Capital Economics assistant economist Harry Chambers noted that given recent data, the increase in inflation expectations seen in Friday's survey was "entirely consumers’ increasing concerns about the impact of tariffs."

"The plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in March, paired with the surge in inflation expectations, indicates that consumers’ concerns about the impact of the Trump administration’s policies are growing," Chambers wrote. 

The survey's release comes one day after the S&P 500 (^GSPC) officially entered correction, falling more than 10% from its Feb. 19 all-time high. Wall Street strategists have recently noted that the uncertainty around Trump's policies has been a key driver of the recent sell-off. 

Guggenheim Partners Investment Management CIO Anne Walsh told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday that the "the on, then off, then on and then off again narrative" surrounding tariffs is driving volatility in the market. And as long as that persists, there likely isn't a direct path higher for stocks.

"It doesn't feel like a smooth trajectory [for stocks] because of all of the noise," Walsh said.

James Williamson - AMA via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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27.

BIL Adds $1.1B as Short-Term Treasuries Draw Investors

2025-03-13 21:00:24 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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28.

Why the Invesco QQQ ETF Tech Bloodbath is a Buying Opportunity

2025-03-13 12:43:47 by TipRanks from TipRanks

It goes without saying that market selloffs never feel particularly good for investors. The ongoing slide in tech stocks continues, with the Nasdaq index down 12% from its all-time high. However, newer investors and those investing in the long term can have a good opportunity to add great names to their portfolios at discounted prices, which benefits them in the long run. One great example during the current tech sell-off is the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF, now down 12.9% from its all-time high and 7.5% lower year-to-date.

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Following the sharp decline, I’m bullish on the Nasdaq-tracking ETF based on its stellar long-term track record, diversified portfolio of blue-chip growth stocks, and reasonable expense ratio. As an added bonus, while things have been painful in the short term, Wall St. analysts forecast a potential upside of almost 30% for QQQ over the next 12 months. 

With over $300 billion in assets under management, QQQ is today’s fifth-largest ETF in the stock market. The fund, launched in 1999, tracks the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) index, providing investors access to the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. Because of the Nasdaq-100’s tech—and growth-centric nature, the fund skews towards large-cap growth and tech stocks, although this isn’t its explicit strategy.  

Invesco’s Stellar Long-Term Results

When looking at QQQ’s long-term track record, it’s easy to see why both retail and institutional investors love this fund. Over the past year, Invesco QQQ has delivered 443% greater returns than the S&P 500. Therefore, despite QQQ being down 10% this month, its past performance demonstrates that any sell-offs tend to be decent buying opportunities, allowing investors to gain exposure to a proven fund with stable returns at lower prices. 

At last month’s close, QQQ reported a three-year annualized return of 14.4%. Moreover, the fund has posted a stellar five-year annualized return of 20.6% and an impeccable 10-year annualized return of 17.6%. These remarkable returns mean that it has beaten the broader market over each of these time frames — for comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 (SPX), posted strong annualized returns of 12.4% over the past three years, 16.6% over the past five years, and 12.8% over the past 10 years. These are strong returns but still trail those of QQQ over each time horizon. 

Invesco QQQ’s Long Game

Let’s also look at QQQ’s performance from a cumulative perspective to illustrate its appeal to long-term investors. As of February 28, QQQ generated a cumulative three-year return of 49.5%, meaning an investor who put $10,000 into the fund three years ago would have $14,950 three years later. Going out even further, the results are even more pronounced. QQQ’s five-year cumulative return stands at an even more impressive 155%, so an investor putting $10,000 into QQQ five years ago would have an investment worth $25,497 five years later. On a ten-year horizon, QQQ’s phenomenal cumulative return of 407.4% means that an investor putting $10,000 into QQQ 10 years ago would have a position worth over $50,000 today.

Moreover, Invesco’s ETF pays dividends and offers a modest 0.6% dividend yield, albeit below the sector average of 1.2%. Most recent reported figures indicate that the QQQ ETF pays $0.83 in dividends per share.

While past performance does not guarantee future results, QQQ has established itself as a long-term winner and an investment that has consistently beaten the broader market and generated significant wealth for its investors over a long time horizon. That makes it easy to see why the current weakness over the past month should be considered a buying opportunity for long-term investors.   

Blue-Chip Growth Backs QQQ Reliability

QQQ currently holds 101 stocks, giving fund participants instant diversification into a broad group of the most extensive non-financial stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Its top 10 holdings make up just under 50% of its assets. 

QQQ’s top 10 holdings feature some of the market’s biggest and best-known names, whether magnificent-7 stocks like Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN) or other powerhouses like Costco (COST) and Netflix (NFLX). These blue-chip growth stocks represent many of the world’s best and most innovative companies, making them an attractive proposition for long-term shareholders.

As an added bonus for long-term investors and those just starting a position now, many of these names are considerably cheaper and trading at lower prices than just a few weeks ago. For example, Alphabet (GOOGL) trades in correction territory, down 19.9% from its 52-week high, and trades at a below-market multiple of just 18.5x forward earnings estimates. Similarly, while skeptics have questioned Nvidia’s expensive valuation over the past few years, the stock is now down 30% from its 52-week highs and trades at an incredibly reasonable valuation of just 23.8x forward earnings estimates.   

A Reasonable Cost to Acquire QQQ ETF

QQQ maintains an expense ratio of 0.20%, meaning an investor will pay $20 in fees on a $10,000 investment annually, which isn’t bad, especially given QQQ’s strong performance. While this is a bit more expensive than some broad-market ETFs, it’s well below the average expense ratio for all ETFs, which is 0.57%, according to State Street. Assuming that the ETF returns 5% per year going forward, the investor putting $10,000 into QQQ would pay $113 in fees over five years and $255 in costs over a 10-year time horizon. 

Is QQQ Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?

QQQ earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 89 Buys, 13 Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The average analyst QQQ price target of $605.31 implies a 28.3% upside potential from current levels over the next twelve months.

Long-Term Pay Off Starts With a Single Trade

Market selloffs are never fun in the short term. But newer investors and investors with a long-term time horizon can be a blessing in disguise, as they offer a chance to add strong investments like QQQ to their portfolios at significantly lower price points. Many investors and individuals on the sidelines have been wishing they had bought these stocks earlier or when they were cheaper, so the present situation seems like a good chance to do just that.

I remain firmly bullish on QQQ based on its exemplary performance over the years, its portfolio of blue-chip growth stocks, and its moderate expense ratio. While the market could still head lower from here in the short term, investors who look past short-term pain and take advantage of fearful sellers will be thankful in the long term.   

Disclosure 

Questions or Comments about the article? Write to editor@tipranks.com

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29.

The stock market's fate all depends on tariffs

2025-03-13 08:00:26 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

With the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on the brink of a 10% correction, stocks attempted a rebound on Wednesday following a better-than-expected inflation reading.

As with most of the recent market action, the rally proved to be stop-and-go as news that Canada would slap retaliatory tariffs on the US sent the major indexes into negative territory before an eventual rebound throughout the afternoon.

The whipsaw nature of stocks as of late fits what many investors have been saying about the recent drawdown: Until there's clarity on tariff policy, the chaotic market action likely won't end.

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

Guggenheim Partners Investment Management CIO Anne Walsh told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday that the "the on, then off, then on and then off again narrative" surrounding tariffs is driving volatility in the market. And as long as that persists, there likely isn't a direct path higher for stocks.

"It doesn't feel like a smooth trajectory [for stocks] because of all of the noise," Walsh said. 

Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz recently offered similar sentiment, writing in a note to clients: "[We’re] unlikely to see a material recovery in equities until we see the start of fiscal policy uncertainty abating," noting that a recent surge in fiscal policy uncertainty, as measured by an index tracked on Bloomberg and seen below, has coincided with the market's recent slide.

As JPMorgan Asset Management global strategist Jack Manley told Yahoo Finance recently, the market's issue with tariffs isn't the tariffs themselves. If a blanket 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada were signed into action, investors could discount which companies would be impacted, how much their profits would likely fall, and what the fair value would be for those stocks and the market as a whole. 

The real issue is that there's no clarity on the tariffs. Manley pointed out that there's a "snowball" effect. If the US hits Canada with new duties, the counterparty might respond, as it did on Wednesday. If Canada retaliates, then would the US follow through with even more duties? Does the cycle end there?

These questions, Manley said, make pricing tariffs into the stock market "extremely difficult." 

Tariffs were one reason Goldman Sachs recently downgraded its outlook for the S&P 500 this year. The firm wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday night that it now sees the benchmark index ending 2025 at 6,200, lower than its previously target of 6,500. 

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin wrote that the firm's lower target reflects its recently reduced GDP growth forecast and a "high assumed tariff rate." Kostin's work shows that for every five percentage point increase in tariffs, S&P 500 earnings per share would be reduced by 1% to 2%. The riskiest scenario, in which the effective tariff rate rose to 15%, would shave off an additional 2%.

Given that earnings growth often drives stocks, tariffs weighing on earnings more than currently forecast would likely also hit stock performance more than expected. 

To be clear, that is not Kostin's expected outcome, nor is it what most strategists expect. For now, as Truist Co-CIO Keith Lerner told Yahoo Finance, the market may just need time to "digest and get through some of the more challenging aspects of the current administration's policies."

Tariffs may not always be the story investors focus on all year.

"You may start to focus more on tax extensions and deregulation later in the year," Lerner said, adding," I can't pinpoint that exact time."

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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30.

Stock market today: Tech rally leads Nasdaq, S&P 500 higher as Tesla, Nvidia surge after cool CPI print

2025-03-12 20:05:58 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

Megacap tech stocks led a cautious stock rebound Wednesday as investors focused on the latest tariff volleys and a cooler-than-expected inflation reading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ended the day down 0.2% after reversing course earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) increased 1.2%, leading the way higher.

A rebound in Big Tech led the gains, with Nvidia (NVDA) popping more than 6% and Tesla (TSLA) adding over 7%.

On Wednesday, the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the "core" Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas — rose 3.1% in February, down from 3.3% seen the month prior. This marked the lowest yearly increase in core CPI since April 2021. 

But President Trump's fast-moving tariff policy is front of mind after uncertainty fueled another volatile session ending in losses on Tuesday. 

Canada has imposed tariffs on $21 billion of US goods in response to Trump's across-the-board duties on steel and aluminum, which went into effect on Wednesday. The EU earlier made its own response, placing matching counter-tariffs on $28 billion in US goods from April.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariff plans

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31.

Goldman Sachs cuts S&P 500 year-end target to 6,200 as economic outlook weighs on profit forecasts

2025-03-12 13:52:31 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

A nearly 10% fall in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has prompted Wall Street strategists to revaluate their bullish views headed into 2025.

And late Tuesday night, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin became the first big name on the Street to lower their year-end price target for the S&P 500 following this drop, with Kostin cutting his year-end target to 6,200 from 6,500. 

"We lower our 2025 year-end S&P 500 index target to 6200 (from 6500) to reflect a 4% reduction in our modeled fair-value forward P/E multiple (20.6x from 21.5x)," Kostin and his team wrote.

"Our new index target suggests an 11% price gain during the balance of the year, similar to our return estimate at the start of the year but from a lower starting point." 

Earlier this week, the S&P 500 nearly entered correction territory — defined as a 10% drop from its most recent high — as fears about the health of the US economy and uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariff policy shook investor confidence. 

Goldman's own economics team recently revised down its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from a prior projection of 2.2% as impacts from tariffs and political uncertainty have weighed on the outlook.

Kostin flagged the GDP downgrade in his note on Tuesday, saying this slower growth forecast prompted a downward revision in its estimate for S&P 500 earnings growth this year to 7% from 9%. 

"Our revised estimates reflect the recently reduced GDP growth forecast of our US Economics team, a higher assumed tariff rate, and higher level of uncertainty that is typically associated with a greater equity risk premium," Kostin wrote. 

"Weaker economic activity usually means weaker corporate earnings growth."

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Kostin noted a catalyst that improves the economic growth outlook, either evidenced by stronger economic data or a reduced tariff policy plan that could spur an upturn in stocks. On Wednesday, perhaps the first sign of better economic data emerged as a softer-than-expected inflation reading sent the major stock indexes higher at the market open.

And while Kostin may be the first strategist to outright lower their year-end target for the S&P, Kostin isn't the only strategist who has recently warned that the path forward for US stocks likely looks different than last year's forecasts. 

"We have seen the US equity market on a rocky path higher through year-end, and have believed that our 6,600 can absorb a 5-10% drawdown," RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.

"The risks of a drawdown of more than 10% have admittedly grown, however. If that occurs, we see a 'growth scare' of a 14-20% decline from peak as most likely, which could shift us into our bear case."

Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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32.

Morningstar: European Investors Shifting Away From US ETFs

2025-03-12 00:30:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

European investors pulled money from U.S. equity ETFs in February for the first time since May 2023, showing a stark contrast with their American counterparts.

U.S. equity ETFs based in Europe recorded $514.7 million in outflows during February, according to Morningstar Direct data. This reversal came despite an increase in overall European ETF inflows to $35.3 billion during the same period.

The change marks a dramatic turnaround from November 2024, when U.S. equity ETFs attracted $22.8 billion, representing nearly 80% of all European ETF purchases, Morningstar data show.

The shift in European ETF flows signals a potential change in global investment sentiment, coming just months after record inflows and highlighting how performance trends, market valuations and geopolitical tensions could reshape investment flows in 2025.

Performance and Policy Concerns Drive Split

U.S. investors showed continued confidence in their domestic market, with U.S. equity ETFs attracting $48.1 billion in February, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. ETF inflows, according to Morningstar.

Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar Research Services, sees three distinct factors behind this investment shift.

• First, according to Armour, global tensions have frustrated European investors, who "decided to invest in European stocks over U.S. stocks" as a response.
• Second, he believes investors may simply be "chasing strong relative performance by European stocks versus U.S. stocks."
• The third factor involves fundamental concerns about American equities. Armour pointed out that U.S. stocks currently "carry high valuations relative to the average global company," while growing "deglobalization calls embedded future growth into question."

The combined effect of these factors likely drove European investors away from U.S. markets, though Armour cautioned that "a single data point rarely tells a full story" when assessing whether this trend will persist.

Intertwined Global Markets

The Trump administration's trade policies may be influencing European sentiment, according to Armour, who told etf.com that "reduced or more costly trade with the U.S. forces European companies to find new sources of revenue. Europeans could feel they need to support their local businesses and invest in their region's companies."

At this point, Armour said he considers February's outflow as "the end of a trend of hot inflows for U.S. stock ETFs," though he cautioned, "We will see whether it amounts to a meaningful shift in investor sentiment in the coming months."

Whether this represents a temporary rebalancing or the start of a new trend remains unclear, as Armour noted that he expects “global volatility for a while, but it's unclear which countries' stocks will come out on top. Many U.S. and European stocks depend on global revenue, so these regions' companies are intertwined in global markets."

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33.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 lead losses as struggles continue amid Trump's latest tariff threats

2025-03-11 20:02:29 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

Stocks bounced off of their session lows late Tuesday but still closed in the red after a day of whiplash from President Trump on tariffs.

For now, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) avoided correction territory but still fell about 0.8% to trade at just under 5,600. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed roughly 500 points, or 1.1%, dragged down by shares of Verizon (VZ). The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) reversed gains in the last few minutes of trading to fall about 0.2%.

All three indexes closed at their lowest levels since September. 

Trump on Tuesday threatened to double tariffs on Canadian metals starting on Wednesday. But he later seemed to walk back those comments after Ontario's premier said the province would suspend an energy tax on neighboring US states. 

Earlier in the day, Trump had also threatened to "substantially increase" duties on cars imported into the US from Canada. He said in a post on Truth Social that these tariffs "will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA!"

The stock follow Monday's brutal sell-off, which saw the Nasdaq fall 4% to log its worst daily loss since 2022 as the "Magnificent Seven" megacaps faltered. But shares of Tesla (TSLA) rebounded slightly Tuesday after a show of support from Trump.

The mood on Wall Street has grown increasingly foreboding as investors gauge the chances of stagflation amid deep cuts to firms' economic forecasts and an upending in the markets' thinking on economic growth.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariff plans

Labor market data on Tuesday largely met expectations, putting the focus on two key inflation reports later this week: February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) print due Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the same month on Thursday. 

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34.

Wall Street's souring view on the US stock market isn't just about the economy — it's about AI too

2025-03-11 17:44:49 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

This year's stock market sell-off has been dramatic, but it also contains almost all of the same characters that have featured in the biggest market disruptions we've seen over the last two years. 

Both on the way up and now, the way down. 

During Monday's market rout, shares of Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT) all fell, with Tesla falling a whopping 15% to lead losses. 

It marked the latest sign that the so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks that drove the S&P 500 to back-to-back 20% gains over the past two years have now become the "lag seven," according to T. Rowe Price science and technology portfolio manager Tony Wang.

Whether stocks are going up or down these days, it seems, it's all one big AI trade.

And right now, it doesn't appear like a market in which investors are looking to bet big on future AI growth, particularly with the overall earnings story for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) coming into question.

"The S&P 500’s forward earnings estimates, a key pillar of this bull market, have flatlined over the past month," Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner wrote in a note to clients on March 4, explaining why he'd downgraded equities to a neutral portfolio weighting.

Through this bull market run, Big Tech has served as a key earnings driver, helping support overall profit growth for the S&P 500 while non-technology companies have struggled. At times, that's helped the sector play as a flight to safety to trade amid market uncertainty.

But now, as Wang notes, not only are these companies' spending plans facing some investor skepticism, but also "[earnings] results are becoming more in line."

"And if we look forward, they're likely going to be not accelerating," Wang added. 

The macro backdrop, with concerns about Trump's tariff policy pushing both interest rates and the dollar around, is also a challenge for these stocks. 

"The lagged impact of higher rates and a stronger dollar, as well as the debate around AI capex have come together to pressure earnings revisions," Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients on Sunday. 

"As a result, we've seen very choppy index performance with the S&P 500."

The sectors that host all the Magnificent Seven tech stocks — Information Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Communication Services (XLC) — were the worst-performing sectors on Monday.

Over the past month, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (^SPXEW), which isn't as overly influenced by significant swings in large stocks — has outperformed the market cap-weighted index (^GSPC) by about 3 percentage points, also reflecting that much of the recent selling action has come in the market's largest names.

That's not to say the AI trade is over, but its predominance has certainly hit a speed bump. 

"In [the] bigger picture, AI-driven outperformance of the US not done yet, but that is for the long term, not for the next few months," Citi strategists led by Dirk Willer wrote in a note to clients on Monday. 

Still, the firm downgraded its view on US equities to Neutral from Overweight as weak economic growth data continues to weigh down the stock market.

And in this environment, the drop we're seeing in these Big Tech leaders doesn't necessarily make the stocks cheap, even with their earnings firepower.  

"So when you think about the setup here," T. Rowe Price's Wang said, "there are suggestions that perhaps these valuations are a lot more attractive, [but] I think that you have to know what kind of market you're in."

Cesc Maymo via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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35.

Nasdaq Stock Market Correction: 2 Unique ETFs I'd Buy Right Now

2025-03-11 15:39:56 by Matt Frankel, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

The Nasdaq is officially in correction territory, with the Nasdaq-100 index about 13% below its recent high as of this writing. This has created some interesting opportunities for long-term investors, in terms of both individual stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Of course, the largest and most popular Nasdaq-100 ETF is the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), which simply tracks the index. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with buying it on the dip. But I have my eye on two unique Nasdaq ETFs right now that I like even better.

A less-concentrated version of the QQQ

There are two big reasons I don't own the Invesco QQQ ETF in my portfolio. One is concentration. Although there are 100 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 index it tracks, nearly half of the assets are concentrated in just nine companies. Simply put, if I wanted 9.7% of my money to be invested in Apple or about 8% in Microsoft, I would just buy shares of those stocks.

The second reason is that the largest stocks in the Invesco QQQ ETF are also (for the most part) the largest stocks in the S&P 500. I already own shares of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which has a far lower expense ratio, so I'm happy to get my megacap exposure from there.

So, I'm taking a closer look at the Direxion Nasdaq-100 Equal Weight ETF (NASDAQ: QQQE). It invests in the same 100 stocks that the Invesco QQQ ETF does, but in equal proportion. In other words, every single company in the index makes up exactly 1% of the ETF's holdings. So, relatively small members of the Nasdaq-100 index like CoStar and Zscaler carry the same weight as companies like Apple and Microsoft.

In short, I think the Nasdaq-100 has been oversold and there's a long-term opportunity there. But I want to invest in all of the components, and not just have the largest few companies dictate how my investment performs.

A unique AI ETF

While I believe that artificial intelligence (AI) is a massive opportunity, analyzing AI stocks (especially smaller and niche companies) is admittedly outside of my wheelhouse. The problem with many AI ETFs is that their top holdings are the usual suspects, like Nvidia and Microsoft.

However, the Ark Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF (NYSEMKT: ARKQ) is different. This is an actively managed fund, not an index fund, run by notable tech investor Cathie Wood. It invests in a portfolio of stocks that should be major beneficiaries of the AI revolution, with 36 companies currently owned by the ETF.

My favorite part is that most of the top holdings are companies I'm not too familiar with and don't already have significant investments in via other ETFs. While a couple of the top holdings are household names (Tesla is the No. 2 position, for example), companies like Kratos Defense and Security, Teradyne, and Iridium Communications make up a lot of the fund's assets.

I recently opened a small position in this ETF to add some much-needed AI exposure to my portfolio, and since it has fallen by about 23% from its January high, I'm planning to add shares to take advantage of the dip.

Buy for the long term

To be clear, I have absolutely no idea if the market volatility will calm down anytime soon. If the trade war escalates, or if the U.S. economy falls into recession, it's entirely possible both of these ETFs could fall further. But with both in correction territory right now, I'm quite confident that regardless of what happens in the near term, both will be worth substantially more in a few years than they are today.

Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity

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Matt Frankel has positions in Ark ETF Trust-Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, CoStar Group, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and Zscaler. The Motley Fool recommends Teradyne and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Nasdaq Stock Market Correction: 2 Unique ETFs I'd Buy Right Now was originally published by The Motley Fool

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36.

Wall Street's 2025 stock market forecasts are falling apart for one simple reason

2025-03-11 08:15:26 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Monday's market meltdown coincided with a major shift in how Wall Street is thinking about the health of the US economy and the current bull market run.

"You're seeing a complete upending in virtually every single consensus trade that was common at the beginning of the year, everything in stocks, in bonds, in currencies," Queens' College, Cambridge, president and former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian told Yahoo Finance on Monday. 

"We've had a complete upending of the conventional wisdom."

After two consecutive years of strategists chasing the market higher as the US economy outperformed expectations, consensus entered 2025 positioned for another year of above-trend growth in the US economy.

Now, economic growth forecasts are moving lower, and strategists are discussing the likelihood that their year-end targets for the S&P 500 might've been too optimistic.

"We have seen the US equity market on a rocky path higher through year-end, and have believed that our 6,600 can absorb a 5-10% drawdown," RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Sunday. 

"The risks of a drawdown of more than 10% have admittedly grown, however. If that occurs, we see a 'growth scare' of a 14-20% decline from peak as most likely, which could shift us into our bear case."

In recent weeks, economic forecasting teams from the likes of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and others have moved their 2025 GDP projections lower — Morgan Stanley now forecasts 1.5% growth in 2025, and Goldman sees 1.7%. 

'A period of transition'

Wall Street's view of where the economy could be headed this year is not out of step with political consensus, either. 

Which may be part of what's been bothering investors of late.  

Last week, President Trump told Congress there could be "a little disturbance" to the economy from his tariff policies, but added, "we're OK with that. It won't be much."

In an interview with Fox Business on Sunday, Trump said, "There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big ... We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing ... it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us."

JIM WATSON via Getty Images

But signs of a slowing economy had already been brewing before Trump took office and will likely continue to muddy the economic picture regardless of how the president's tariff plans evolve. 

"The economy was slowing before Trump was sworn in," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Monday. "He inherited an economy with deep imbalances and a frozen housing and labor market."

Dutta points out that since the market's last growth scare in August 2024, stronger economic data points have coincided with rising equity prices and vice versa. In recent weeks, however, "the economic and corporate earnings data have deteriorated," Dutta wrote. 

Read more: What is a recession, and how does it impact you?

Still, no major Wall Street firm is directly calling for an outright downturn in which GDP turns negative for two consecutive quarters. For financial markets, however, the rate and direction of the change in the economy's growth rate, rather than the absolute level, is most important for setting prices today. 

Research from Calvasina at RBC has shown that the two worst GDP environments for stocks are when the US economy grows at an annualized pace between 0% and 2%, suggesting the market's most lackluster performances often come as investors price in the slowdown.

Once GDP is actually negative, stocks typically perform well as the rebound — not the slowdown — drives price discovery.

And just as economists aren't yet calling for a recession, neither are equity strategists dramatically cutting forecasts for where stocks end the year, even with the median forecast of those tracked by Yahoo Finance calling for the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by year-end, or about 17% higher than current levels. 

"Our year-end 2025 base case price target remains 6,500, though the path is likely to be volatile as the market continues to contemplate these growth risks for the time being," Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson wrote in a note on Sunday.

"This fits with our long-standing view that policy would likely be sequenced in a more growth-negative way to start the year before lower deficits/rates and less crowding out of the private economy benefit the market later in the year — No Pain, No Gain." 

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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37.

Stock market today: Dow sinks 900 points, Nasdaq plunges 4% in worst day since 2022

2025-03-10 20:05:47 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks plunged on Monday as investors processed growing concerns about the health of the US economy after President Trump and his top economic officials acknowledged the possibility of a potential rough patch.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 900 points, or over 2%, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped around 2.7% after the index posted its worst week since September. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 4% in its worst day since 2022, as the "Magnificent Seven" stocks led the sell-off. Tesla's (TSLA) rout continued, plunging 15% and officially wiping out the gains it had made in the wake of Trump's election win. Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META) all each lost more than 4%.

All three major indexes built on losses of more than 2% last week as the Nasdaq plummeted deeper into correction territory.

March's market struggles continue to be fueled by worries over the health of the US economy. Those concerns have become wrapped up in Trump's ongoing trade salvo, as tariff negotiations between the US, Mexico, and Canada dominate the headlines. In a Sunday interview on Fox News, Trump addressed concerns about a potential recession, describing the economy as undergoing “a period of transition.”

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariff plans

The political uncertainty is expected to persist into this week, with key economic data adding to the mix of potential market-moving factors. Updates on the inflationary picture will be in focus, with the February Consumer Price Index scheduled for release on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index set to follow on Thursday.

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38.

Goldman Sachs slashes US economic forecasts as tariff impacts grow 'considerably more adverse'

2025-03-10 17:08:05 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Goldman Sachs is the latest Wall Street firm to grow more concerned about the path forward for the US economy as President Trump's tariff policies become reality.

In a research note on Monday, Goldman's economics team led by Jan Hatzius slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.4%. 

"The reason for the downgrade is that our trade policy assumptions have become considerably more adverse," Hatzius wrote.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

In its note, Goldman also boosted its projection for the Fed's preferred inflation gauge to end the year at 3%, up from a prior call in the mid 2% range. 

Hatzius noted these updates mark the first time in about two and a half years that his team has projected GDP growth below Bloomberg consensus data, which currently calls for GDP growth north of 2% this year.

Goldman is the latest in a slew of forecasting teams that now see a more dire outlook for the US economy.

In a note to clients on Friday, Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen moved his 2025 growth forecast down to 1.5% from 1.9% previously. 

Gapen also sees the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures index — ending the year higher, projecting core PCE to end 2025 at 2.7%, up from a previous projection of 2.5%.

3 tariff impacts

In its note on Monday, Goldman's team said it now sees the average US tariff rate rising by 10 percentage points this year, twice their previous forecast and five times the level seen during Trump's first administration. 

Tariffs weigh on the overall economic outlook through three key levers, Hatzius wrote.

First, the new duties are expected to push up consumer prices and, therefore, cut real income for consumers. Second, they usually come alongside tighter financial conditions. And third, the uncertainty surrounding the tariff implementation will likely prompt businesses to "delay investment."

Hatzius believes the combination of slower growth and sticky inflation can still leave room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year in June and December. 

But for now, Trump's policy uncertainty likely keeps the central bank holding rates steady.

"Our near-term view is that the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] will want to stay on the sidelines and make as little news as possible until the policy outlook has become clearer," Hatzius said.

And while still not the base case, discussions of recession have also picked up from various sources. 

Former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian told Yahoo Finance Monday he now sees a 25% to 30% chance the US economy enters recession this year, up from a 10% chance seen before the Trump tariff bonanza began. 

Betting markets are pricing in an increasing chance the US economy tips into recession, with Polymarket placing the odds that a US recession is officially called by year-end at roughly 40% as of Monday, up from a 23% chance on Feb. 27. 

The downshift in economic growth forecasts has also coincided with a broad risk-off trade in the stock market. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was down more than 3%, led by large losses in popular tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA). 

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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39.

Inflation in center focus amid tariff fears: What to know this week

2025-03-09 11:35:05 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks sank last week as a lack of clarity around President Donald Trump's tariff plans and what they could mean for the economy's overall trajectory gripped markets. 

For the week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell more than 3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid more than 2%, or about 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the losses, falling almost 3.5%. The Nasdaq has now fallen more than 10% from its last record high in December and is in a correction. 

In the week ahead key updates on inflation, with fresh readings on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be in focus as investors look for any clues on how tariffs may impact the path forward for prices. Updates on inflation expectations and consumer sentiment are also on the calendar.

In a quieter week of corporate earnings releases, Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) will highlight the schedule. 

Fed isn't 'in a hurry'

Friday's February jobs report came and went with few surprises. The US labor market added 151,000 jobs in the month, just below expectations, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Economists largely read the report as better-than-feared, given other signs of economic growth slowing.

Bank of America US economist Shruti Mishra described the report as "mostly a sigh of relief." Markets continue to price in three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, per Bloomberg data. 

But the looming question for markets remains when the Federal Reserve will actually cut rates again. In a speech on Friday Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said any further rate reductions likely aren't imminent.

"We do not need to be in a hurry and are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity," Powell said. 

There will be no Fed speak in the week ahead as the central bank enters its blackout period ahead of its next meeting on March 18-19.

Price check

A fresh update on the pace of price increases is slated for release on Wednesday.

Wall Street economists expect February's CPI to show headline annual inflation of 2.9%, down from the 3% seen in January. Prices are anticipated to rise 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, per economist projections, below the 0.5% increase seen in January.

On a "core" basis, which strips out food and energy prices, CPI is expected to have risen 3.2% over last year in February, below the 3.3% seen in January. Monthly core price increases are anticipated to clock in at 0.3%, below the 0.4% seen the month prior.

Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note to clients that the February CPI print is only expected to provide an "initial taste" of expected tariff impact on inflation data. 

"Although we expect both headline and core inflation to tick down on a year-over-year basis in February, we anticipate it will start moving back up this spring and remain stuck near 3% for the duration of this year despite further easing in shelter inflation and growing signs of consumer fatigue," House wrote. 

It's not a 'recession' trade yet

The recent market sell-off has been driven by weaker-than-expected economic data and fears of further softness caused by Trump's tariffs. 

Economists at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs have all downgraded their GDP forecasts for either the first quarter or the entire year. But what's notable within those calls is they aren't actually predicting an outright economic downturn. Instead, at least for now, it looks like more likely that the US economy won't grow at the robust pace many hoped. Not many economists are actually starting to talk about a recession. For instance, with Goldman Sachs' forecasting update, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months rose to 20% from 15% the year prior. 

Companies aren't currently fearing recession either. Data from FactSet shows just 13 companies mentioned the word "recession" during S&P 500 earnings calls this quarter. This marked the lowest number of recession mentions since the first quarter of 2018. 

This reflects that, for now, the stock market's repricing of the past few weeks is largely a resetting of expectations in a year many believed would be headlined by outperformance of the US economy. 

"I don't think the economy is turning on a dime in a negative direction," former Council of Economic Advisors chairman Jason Furman told Yahoo Finance. "But everything on the uncertainty, sentiment, all of that is pushing toward slowing."

Weekly calendar

Monday

Economic data: New York Fed one-year inflation expectations, February (3% previously)

Earnings: Asana (ASAN), Oracle (ORCL), Vail Resorts (MTN)

Tuesday

Economic data: NFIB small business optimism, February (101 expected, 102.8 prior)

Earnings: Casey's (CASY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Kohl's (KSS)

Wednesday

Economic data: Consumer Price Index, month over month, February (+0.3% expected, +0.5% previously); Core CPI, month over month, February (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); CPI, year over year, February (+2.9% expected, +3% previously); Core CPI, year over year, February (+3.2% expected, +3.3% previously); Real average hourly earnings, year over year, February (+0.9% previously); MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending March 7 (+20.4% previously)

Earnings: Adobe (ADBE), American Eagle (AEO), iRobot (IRBT), Vera Bradley (VRA)

Thursday

Economic data: Producer Price Index, month over month, February (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); PPI, year over year, February (+3.3% expected, +3.5% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ending March 8 (221,000 previously)

Earnings: DocuSign (DOCU), Dollar General (DG), Rubrik (RBRK), Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Friday

Economic data: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (63.9 expected, 64.7 prior)

Earnings: No notable earnings.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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40.

SPY, VOO, or QQQ: Discover Which ETF Reigns Supreme for U.S. Investors

2025-03-08 12:14:49 by TipRanks from TipRanks

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become a mainstay of today’s financial markets, offering easy and instant diversification, low costs, and reliable performance that reduces volatility while maximizing returns. Three of the largest and most popular are the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). Like stocks, ETFs trade on exchanges, providing investors direct access to portfolios of stocks rather than individual companies. Their low costs, sector-specificity, and ample liquidity make ETFs a popular choice for both beginner and pro investors alike.

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SPY and VOO employ the time-honored broad exposure to the S&P 500, while QQQ takes a more tech-focused approach with its Nasdaq holdings. But which of these three ETF juggernauts is a top pick for U.S. investors?

Let’s find out…

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY)

With over $618 billion in assets under management (AUM), the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is the largest ETF in the world. The fund offers strong diversification, an instant portfolio of blue-chip U.S. stocks, impressive long-term performance, and a favorable expense ratio. 

While ETFs are now a significant part of the stock market, SPY is the ETF that started it all. It was launched all the way back in 1993, and it was the first ETF listed in the U.S. The ETF’s strategy is simply to invest in the largest publicly traded U.S. stocks by investing in the S&P 500 index. 

The strategy is simple but has generated excellent results for investors over time. They say it’s hard to beat the market, but SPY is the market in this case. At the end of 2024, SPY produced an annualized three-year return of 8.8%, an annualized five-year return of 14.4%, and an annualized 10-year return of 13%. It’s hard to beat such double-digit annualized gains over the past five and ten years, and this sets a decent bar that other investment ideas should be capable of clearing when investors are considering when making investment decisions. 

Because SPY simply invests in the S&P 500, the ETF’s holdings are essentially a who’s who of mega-cap U.S. stocks. You can gain an overview of SPY’s top 10 holdings below using TipRanks’ holdings tool. The fund offers investors instant diversification into 504 of the U.S.’s largest stocks. SPY’s top 10 holdings make up 34.3% of its assets. 

SPY’s top 10 holdings include the magnificent seven tech stocks: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) plus other prominent mega-cap names like semiconductor giant Broadcom (AVGO) and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B).

SPY offers a reasonable expense ratio of 0.09%, meaning that an investor in the fund will pay just $9 in fees on a $10,000 investment annually. Overall, I’m bullish on SPY based on its long history of generating strong returns, its diversified portfolio of blue-chip U.S. stocks, and its reasonable expense ratio. With these factors, it’s not hard to see why it is the most popular ETF in today’s market, but there are other choices with similar appeal for investors to consider. 

Is SPY a Buy Right Now?

On Wall Street, SPY earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 411 Buys, 88 Holds, and six Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The average analyst SPY price target of $681.74 implies ~18% upside potential from current levels.

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO)

While SPY is the market’s largest ETF, with just over $635 billion in AUM, VOO is nipping at its heels with $604 billion in AUM, making it the second-largest ETF in the world. Like SPY, VOO invests in S&P 500 stocks and shares the same top 10 holdings. VOO owns 504 stocks; its top 10 holdings account for 36.2% of the fund. 

VOO has also produced strong long-term returns. Using the end of 2024 as a starting point, it has generated a three-year annualized return of 8.9%, a five-year annualized return of 14.5%, and a 10-year annualized return of 13.1%. 

The two ETFs clearly have a lot in common, but one subtle difference puts VOO ahead in this comparison. SPY’s expense ratio of 0.09% is entirely reasonable, but VOO comes with an even cheaper expense ratio of 0.03%, just one-third the expense ratio charged by SPY. This means an investor putting $10,000 into VOO will pay just $3 in fees over a year.

Now, even though SPY’s expense ratio is three times that of VOO’s, I can understand why readers may feel it’s a negligible difference, and in some ways, it is. However, the expense ratio begins to bite hard for more considerable investments over $1 million. I’m bullish on VOO for the same reasons as SPY—its excellent long-term performance and diversified portfolio of top U.S. stocks— but it stands out based on its lower expense ratio.

Is VOO a Buy Right Now?

Like SPY, VOO earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 411 Buys, 88 Holds, and six Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The average analyst VOO price target of $631.09 implies ~20% upside potential from current levels.

Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ)

Lastly, for a slightly different flavor, let’s examine QQQ, the fifth-largest ETF in the market with $312 billion in assets under management. Unlike SPY and VOO, which invest in the S&P 500, QQQ invests in a different index—the Nasdaq (NDAQ). The Nasdaq tech-centric focus means that QQQ is also far more tech-orientated than its two comparison peers despite also having several stocks from the S&P 500 being included. There are differences and plenty of overlap.

QQQ’s top ten holdings show how much the fund has in common with the two aforementioned ETFs, although it is less diversified and more concentrated, with just 101 holdings and a top 10 that makes up a larger 49.7% of its AUM. 

While SPY and VOO have posted strong performances over the years, QQQ has performed even better. For an apples-to-apples comparison, as of the end of 2024, the tech-centric ETF has generated a three-year annualized return of 9.5%, an exceptional five-year annualized return of 20.0%, and an impressive 10-year annualized return of 18.3%. 

QQQ maintains an expense ratio of 0.2%, meaning an investor will pay $20 in fees annually on a $10,000 investment. It’s therefore clearly more expensive than SPY or VOO, but this isn’t an unreasonable expense ratio per se (the average for all ETFs is 0.57%, according to SPY sponsor State Street), and I’d be willing to pay a premium for this strong performance in this case. 

My only qualm about QQQ is that the fund’s valuation is higher than the S&P 500-focused ETFs. While the S&P 500 currently trades for just under 24x earnings, the more growth-oriented Nasdaq-100 trades for over 30x. This isn’t a problem per se, but if we enter a risk-off environment where growth stocks pull back, as we saw at the end of February, it’s feasible that SPY and VOO could outperform the more risk-on QQQ going forward. 

Is QQQ Worth Buying?

Like its two peers, QQQ earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Wall Street based on 89 Buys, 13 Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The average analyst QQQ price target of $596.99 implies ~22% upside potential from current levels.

VOO Rules the ETF Roost, For Now

All three are great ETFs. I’m bullish on all three as they have generated excellent double-digit annualized returns for their investors over not years but decades. All feature diversified portfolios of top stocks and reasonable expense ratios, which means any of the three would be a good base for value investors to build their portfolios around. If I were making an investment decision today, I would invest in VOO and QQQ. VOO and SPY offer the same exposure, but VOO does so at a third of SPY’s price, making it the clear choice. I’d also consider allocating room for QQQ. Despite the fund being more expensive than its peers, its excellent performance and Nasdaq tech focus could be an option for tech value investors.

Disclosure 

Questions or Comments about the article? Write to editor@tipranks.com

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41.

The 'clouds' weighing down the market aren't going anywhere: Chart of the Week

2025-03-08 11:00:29 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

• The chart of the day

• What we're watching

• What we're reading

• Economic data releases and earnings

The stock market swings are intensifying. 

In the past week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) either increased or fell by 1% every day — generally the latter — as uncertainties around the path of economic growth, particularly President Trump's proposed tariffs, have weighed on investors. 

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) just had their worst weeks in six months. The S&P 500 is now 6% off its most recent all-time high, while the Nasdaq Composite is now in a correction, off more than 10% from its most recent high. 

As our chart of the week shows, the path lower has come with some aggressive bounces, usually prompted by Trump either threatening tariffs — or de-escalating those threats.

In this pressurized environment, even something like a relatively solid February jobs report did little to cool investor nerves on Friday. Stocks still swung big once again, diving into the 5,600s before eking out a modest gain, closing at 5,770. And the market's new bet for three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts during 2025, as the economy slows, changed little.

"There's a lot of clouds out there, some storms, things are getting pretty dark," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told Yahoo Finance. "So I think I'd soak this [jobs] number up. I think it might be the best number we get for a while."

While there's heavy debate on how long the clouds will be here and how big of a storm they could bring with them, one thing feels clear right now: They aren't going away in a swift enough fashion for investors to feel confident taking the boat out tomorrow. 

On the other hand, the market's recent skittishness isn't a common occurrence. Through Thursday, the S&P 500 had swung 2% or more for seven straight sessions as of Friday. Per data from Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre, this is the longest stretch with such large intraday movement in the benchmark index since August 2024. 

Notably, that's also the last time the market narrative centered around a "growth scare," where investors grew concerned about the trajectory of the US economy.

BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income Rick Rieder, who's been in the industry since the 1980s, wrote in a note to clients Friday that "it seems as if there have been very few times in markets where one has to interpret so much disparate, and at times conflicting, data relative to the economy and influences on it." 

Rieder likened the current news flow to playing the arcade game "Asteroids" — where players must fight off a constant flurry of asteroids before they hit their ship — while also having to put a quarter into the machine to keep the game running. 

"[The February jobs] report was just another asteroid coming at the markets, and presumably one of the asteroids that the Fed has to assess when determining when and if they can cut interest rates again," Rieder said. "Today’s report didn’t suggest an emergency need to cut rates ... and hence the volatility of interest rates can continue for a while."

Equity strategists are offering similar opinions on the path forward for stocks too. 

"For now, we remain in a discovery process," RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "For stocks to bottom, we think clear evidence of resiliency in the hard [economic] data needs to emerge, and/or more clear indications of a bottoming in our sentiment, valuation, and earnings revisions indicators."

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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42.

Auto ETFs Skid Despite Trump Tariff Exemption

2025-03-07 01:00:00 by Kristin Myers from etf.com

Auto ETFs holding Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co. (GM) dipped Thursday, despite President Donald Trump granting the automakers a month-long exemption from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. While both Ford and General Motors are American companies, the automakers manufacture vehicles in Canadian and Mexican factories.

Auto ETF Pileup 

The First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF (FTXR) dropped roughly 1% midday Thursday; the fund is the biggest holder of both Ford and General Motors with more than 13% allocated to the two companies. FTXR has been under pressure since tariffs against Canada and Mexico were first announced. Performance over the past month declined nearly 14%.

Source: etf.com

Shares of Ford declined over 1.75% while General Motors sank over 2.5% midday Thursday. 

The iShares U.S. Manufacturing ETF (MADE) fell more than 1.5% at midday. The fund was dragged down by its holdings in manufacturing companies that will get hit by the Canadian and Mexico tariffs, which target steel and aluminum imports.

The First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF (CARZ) also sank, falling nearly 2.5% midday. The fund primarily invests in the technology and components suppliers for automobiles.

Auto Market Outlook

In his joint address to Congress, the president said the country would "have growth in the auto industry like nobody’s ever seen. Plants are opening up all over the place. Deals are being made like I've never seen."

"That’s a combination of the election win and tariffs," he added.

Markets, seemingly tired over the trade war, took a leg lower Thursday, even after announcements from the White House paused all tariffs on most Mexican imports. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) dropped close to 2%, while shares of tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) declined more than 2.4%. 

etf.com's Markets Monitor shows that Mexican markets dropped 2.25%, while Canadian markets dipped nearly a quarter of a percentage point. 

Trump's tariffs have dragged down markets over the last month. According to etf.com data, VOO performance over the past month has fallen by just over 4%, as markets have been on a rollercoaster ride since tariffs were first announced at the start of February.

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43.

Toronto Stock Exchange to Celebrate Anniversary of World's First ETF

2025-03-07 01:00:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) will mark the 35th anniversary of the first ETF today with a special market close event commemorating a Canadian financial innovation that transformed global investing.

The world's first exchange-traded fund, the Toronto 35 Index Participation Units (TIPs), launched on March 9, 1990, according to the press release. This product served as the prototype for modern ETFs, which have since become one of the most popular investment vehicles globally.

The milestone highlights Canada's pioneering role in creating investment vehicles now used by millions worldwide, with the Canadian ETF market recently surpassing $600 billion in assets under management across more than 1,000 products, according to a TSX press release. 

"We are extremely proud to see that ETFs—a Canadian invention—have changed the financial markets and the way that investors interact with markets around the world," Loui Anastasopoulos, Toronto Stock Exchange CEO, said in the announcement.

Canadian ETF Market Continues to Innovate

Canada has maintained its leadership position in ETF innovation over the decades, according to TSX. The exchange listed the world's first fixed-income ETF in 2000 and the world's first bitcoin ETF in 2021, continuing a trend of financial product development.

At the end of January 2025, TSX ETFs held over $560 billion in assets under management across 1,073 products, according to the release. In 2024, $753 billion worth of ETF units were traded in Canada, with options available on 53 ETFs through the Montréal Exchange.

Graham MacKenzie, managing director of exchange-traded products at the Toronto Stock Exchange, noted in the release, "The Canadian ETF ecosystem has experienced remarkable growth and innovation in the past 35 years."

The anniversary celebration coincides with TMX Group's recent expansion in the ETF industry. In January 2024, the company acquired VettaFi, a U.S.-based indexing and analytics firm, according to the press release.

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44.

February jobs report: US labor market adds 151,000 jobs, unemployment rate ticks up to 4.1%

2025-03-06 20:51:59 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The February jobs report out Friday offered few surprises for investors, with job gains increasing slightly and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% amid heightened investor fears over the trajectory of the US labor market and the broader economy.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed 151,000 new jobs were created in February, less than the 160,000 expected by economists but more than the 125,000 seen in January. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4% in the prior month. January's monthly job gains were revised lower from a previous reading of 143,000. 

With the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) job cuts in focus, federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.

RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance the February jobs report was a "Goldilocks" print. 

"We know that over the next three to six months, we're going to see some of the disruptive effects in Washington start to show up in both the economy and in the labor market," Brusuelas said. "But for now, what this tells us is that we really only need to add about 100,000 to 150,000 jobs a month to keep employment stable. That's exactly what happened."

Wage growth, an important measure for gauging inflation pressures, rose 4% over the prior year in February, down from the 4.1% seen in January. On a monthly basis, wages increased 0.3%, below the 0.4% seen the prior month.

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% from the 62.6% seen in January.

"The upshot is that the labour market remains in decent shape and should be able to weather the DOGE-related cull of federal government employees, although we will have to wait until next month to assess the damage," Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan wrote in a note to clients.

The report comes during a week full of whipsaw market action, as investors have digested a string of weaker-than-expected economic data and a consistent flow of tariff headlines from President Trump that have muddled the growth outlook.

On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) officially entered a correction, as the index is now more than 10% off its mid-December record close, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed at its lowest level of the year. 

Market bets on Federal Reserve interest cuts moved little following Friday's release while the three major stock indexes were up slightly.

Investors are still pricing in three interest rate cuts for this year, above the range of one or two seen last month, per Bloomberg Data.

Boston Globe via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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45.

Corporate America isn't talking about anything but tariffs right now

2025-03-06 15:10:17 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Tariffs are the talk of corporate America right now. 

As updates on President Trump's tariff plans have prompted whipsaw action in markets over the past several days, mentions of tariffs on earnings calls have skyrocketed. 

According to Bloomberg data, tariffs were mentioned 384 times on earnings conference calls over a three-month rolling period through March 5. In the past five years, no similar period has seen more than 100 mentions.

As seen in the chart below, sectors like Industrials (XLI) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) are leading the mentions as tariffs could increase costs for companies in those sectors. But what's also notable is that tariff talk has been seen across earnings calls in all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

This suggests tariffs could have a widespread impact on the US economy and the stock market. 

As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump has implemented 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and added 20% duties on China. He's also threatened tariffs on the European Union and ordered a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum into the US from all countries.

Equity strategists have also warned tariffs could be a headwind to earnings for the S&P 500 index as a whole this year. 

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Citi equity strategist Drew Pettit told Yahoo Finance that if Trump's proposed tariffs were put into place, it'd likely shave about $3 off the index's earnings per share every three months the levies aren't lifted. Typically, strategists would model a lower year-end projection for the S&P 500's return if earnings aren't expected to grow by as much. But for now, that's not the base case.  

"We don't really know," Pettit said regarding the chances Trump's tariffs are in place for an extended period. "So when you don't have that confidence, or even just some base case to really throw out there, you get these air pockets [in market action] to some extent." 

On a company-specific level, tariffs have had a more direct impact. 

Take Wednesday's market action, for example. In the afternoon, the White House announced a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs involving US automakers GM (GM), Ford (F), and Stellantis (STLA). All three stocks, which had recently slumped amid fears of rising prices, rallied on the news. 

Other companies haven't fared as well. In just the past week, executives from Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) have all warned that tariffs could materially impact their business. 

On a media call, Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said around 55% of its products are sourced from China "in some way, shape, or form," and another 20% come from Mexico. Barry added it's "highly likely" consumers will see a price impact from tariffs. 

Target CFO Jim Lee said they're expecting "outsized profit pressures" in the current quarter due in part to "tariff uncertainty." 

Tariffs have also dominated economic data releases. 

For example, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI, which surveys businesses in the industry, was weaker than expected in February. The prices paid index — a measure of what manufacturers are paying for raw materials — surged to a reading of 62.4, up from 54.9 the month prior and its highest level since July 2022.

"The whole story here is really around the tariff issue," Institute for Supply Management chair Timothy Fiore told Yahoo Finance, further explaining that the price increases lead to lower new orders from businesses and also could impact hiring plans.

"If you stay on the path that we're headed on, I think it's going to be tough, a tough route [for the US economy]," Fiore said.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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46.

Daily ETF Flows: SPY, VTI and BIL Lead Inflows Amid Selloff

2025-03-06 01:00:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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47.

Active ETFs Approach $1T Milestone: State Street

2025-03-05 23:00:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

Active ETFs are on the verge of reaching a historic milestone, with assets quickly approaching the $1 trillion mark, according to the latest State Street Global Advisors Flash Flows report.

The rapid growth of money flowing into active exchange-traded funds shows a major shift in how institutions and individuals build portfolios, with the approaching $1 trillion mark representing a key moment for the investment management industry.

A Milestone for Active ETFs

"Right now, active ETF total assets are just $15 billion away from $1 trillion—a notable milestone that is likely to be achieved before St. Patrick's Day," noted Matthew Bartolini, head of Americas ETF research at State Street Global Advisors.

The broader ETF industry is also experiencing unprecedented growth, with February inflows reaching a record $111 billion, 185% above the February average, according to the report. 

Active ETFs specifically saw record inflows of $44 billion in February, accounting for 40% of all ETF flows, according to State Street. This impressive figure was bolstered by record active equity inflows ($22.5 billion) and active fixed-income inflows ($17.7 billion).

Fixed-income ETFs led the charge with a "record-setting" $42 billion in February inflows, according to the report, representing a 2% increase of start-of-month assets. This outpaced equity ETFs' $62 billion inflow rate of 0.73% and demonstrates the growing secular usage of bond ETFs in investor portfolios.

Beyond Traditional Strategies

The record active flows showed remarkable depth, with more than 70% of active funds experiencing inflows in February compared to just 63% of all ETFs. February marked the 59th consecutive month of inflows for active ETFs, according to the report.

Within active equity, derivative income ETFs had a record $5.8 billion of inflows, while defined-outcome ETFs attracted $1.4 billion, their eighth-highest monthly total and 51st consecutive month of inflows.

State Street's projections suggest active fixed-income ETFs could take in over $200 billion for the year, potentially doubling the record set in 2024. If market returns remain supportive, total assets under management in active bond ETFs could surpass $500 billion by year-end.

With over $200 billion of inflows through the first two months of 2025, ETFs are on pace for $1.5 trillion of inflows for the full year, based on State Street's projection that accounts for seasonality and recent trends.

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48.

Hiring slowed in February as economic uncertainty created 'hesitancy' to add jobs last month, ADP data shows

2025-03-05 14:34:10 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

New data revealed that private sector hiring slowed significantly in February and fell short of Wall Street's expectations, adding to concerns that the US economy is losing steam. 

On Wednesday, fresh data from ADP showed the private sector added 77,000 jobs in February, far fewer than economists' estimates of 140,000 — and significantly lower than the 186,000 jobs added in January. January's number of job additions was revised up from a prior reading of 183,000. February's data marked the largest month-over-month decline in private payroll additions since March 2023.

"Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a press release. "Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead."

ADP's weaker-than-expected job additions are the latest in a string of economic data that has prompted concern over the health of the US economy as President Trump's tariff plans also cloud the outlook. In recent weeks, data has shown a decline in consumer spending, retail sales, manufacturing activity, and construction spending, while housing activity has remained in the doldrums. The confluence of data has sent forecasts for economic growth in the first quarter tumbling.

"We saw the same downshift in the labor market that is reflective of the overall economy," Richardson told Yahoo Finance during a call with reporters. "We saw a decrease in spending in the consumer side in January, and so we're seeing those industries tied to consumer, like retail sales, feel that same kind of inflection point downward."

Reuters / Reuters

Richardson noted that any further deterioration in the consumer will be key to watch throughout 2025 for signs of an economic slowdown. For now, Richardson argues the data points to early signs of slowing versus flashing major warning signs. 

"Even with the latest jobs report, I still am in the healthy labor market camp," Richardson said. "That doesn't mean that every part of the labor market is healthy, and some are flashing yellow lights a little stronger and longer than others."

In an interview with Yahoo Finance on Wednesday morning, former Council of Economic Advisors chairman Jason Furman offered a similar stance on the state of the US economy. 

"I don't think the economy is turning on a dime in a negative direction," Furman said. "But everything on the uncertainty, sentiment, all of that is pushing toward slowing."

Another update on the labor market is expected Friday with the release of the February jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists expect the US labor market added 160,000 jobs during the month while the unemployment rate held flat at 4%.

Correction: A previous version of this article listed an incorrect figure for private payroll additions. We regret the error.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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49.

Investors aren't cheering for Fed rate cuts anymore

2025-03-05 11:00:43 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

As weaker-than-expected data has spurred concerns about US economic growth, markets have moved to price in more easing from the Federal Reserve this year.

On Tuesday, traders were betting on three interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025 for the first time this year. Debate around when the next cut will come has intensified too. Markets now see a 50/50 chance the Fed lowers rates at its May meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Just a week ago, they were pricing in a 75% chance the Fed would hold rates steady that month.

A reduction in the cost of borrowing should be a good thing for consumers and companies — and therefore markets. But stocks have slumped amid the shifting Fed narrative. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) hit its lowest level since before Donald Trump won the presidential election in November. 

Typical interest rate cut trades like the small-cap Russell 2000 (^RUT) — which has rallied over the past several years when markets price in more interest rate cuts — have faltered too. With fears of an economic slowdown driving the Fed narrative, the Russell 2000 is down more than 6% this year, far worse than the S&P 500's roughly flat return.

The recent sell-off in markets remains all about the economic growth story. Citi equity strategist Drew Pettit told Yahoo Finance that if soft economic data is what drives the Fed to ease monetary policy, markets won't welcome rate cuts as they have in the past.

Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments

"'Fed cuts because of weak economic data' is not a good thing for markets anymore," Pettit said. "If we were talking about this two months ago, you know, 'Fed cuts against a resilient backdrop' was good for markets."

January data showed that consumer spending fell for the first time in nearly two years. Separate data showed retail sales for the month saw the largest monthly decline in a year. 

Housing activity has remained in the doldrums. And most recently on Monday, readings on manufacturing activity and construction spending were weaker than expected, sending forecasts for economic growth in the first quarter tumbling.

Add in that President Donald Trump's tariffs are projected to stunt economic growth in the near term, and there's a building market narrative that the Fed may be more likely to cut interest rates again to stave off an economic slowdown even if inflation hasn't reached the central bank's 2% target.

"Recession risks are rising," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta told Yahoo Finance. "But I think once the Fed gets on the right side of the eight ball, those recession risks will decline."

Dutta added in a LinkedIn post on Tuesday that markets likely need a "policy response" to the current growth concerns to "find their footing." Dutta believes that either comes from the Fed cutting interest rates again or Trump backing off on his hefty tariff policy.

Alex Wong via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

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50.

DIA Attracts $263M as Dow Tumbles 650 Points

2025-03-05 00:25:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com