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1.

Nvidia earnings, Trump tariff updates, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge: What to know this week

2025-05-25 11:32:21 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks' feverish rebound over the past month is now on pause as growing concerns about the fiscal deficit have sent Treasury yields roaring higher and President Trump is once again threatening to escalate tariffs.

On Friday, Trump threatened to place a direct 25% tariff on Apple products not made in the US while also warning he'd ramp up duties on the European Union to 50% at the start of June. This solidified a week of decline for stocks as the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped about 2.4%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid roughly 2.6% on the week.

In the week ahead, updates on the trade war and Trump's pending tax bill will remain in focus, while quarterly results from Nvidia (NVDA) are expected to take center stage on Wednesday after the market close. Reports from Okta (OKTA), Salesforce (CRM), and Costco (COST) will also receive investor attention. 

The release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge on Friday will headline the economic data schedule. Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. 

Tariff escalation

President Trump's policies have continued to drive markets. Concerns over Trump's tax bill boosting the government deficit have pushed Treasury yields higher. At over 5.1%, the 30-year Treasury yield (^TYX) had been hovering near its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) had pressed above 4.6%, its highest level since February. 

But the sell-off in bonds eased on Friday as Trump once again threatened to escalate tariffs, sending a reminder to investors that even with a 90-day tariff pause on a wide swath of countries, the trade policy whipsaw in markets is far from over. 

"Safe to say for the time being we’ve hit 'trough' trade uncertainty," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "At this point markets need to see these tariffs retracted AND bond yields to not spike again for any material move higher."

Friday's decline in treasuries sent the 10-year below the key 4.5% level Kantrowitz has been watching. As Kantrowitz highlights in the chart below, once the 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 4.5%, interest rate-sensitive stocks have seen increased underperformance in recent years. 

This played out in last week's market action with the Russell 2000 Index (^RUT), which has many companies with more interest rate exposure than the S&P 500, falling nearly 4% compared to the S&P 500's 2.6% decline.

The AI leader reports

Nvidia is set to report quarterly results on Wednesday after the market close. Investors will be closely watching for any updates on demand from the leading supplier of AI chips. For the quarter, Nvidia is expected to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88 on revenue of $43.3 billion, according to Bloomberg analyst consensus data. The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.61 on revenue of $26 billion in the same period last year.

Read the full preview of Nvidia's results from Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley here.

Given Nvidia's position as one of the top holdings in the S&P 500, investors will also be watching how the report affects other tech stocks and the broader market. Shares of Nvidia are roughly flat this year after whipsawing amid growing fears of AI competition and tariff concerns. 

Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, Nvidia alone has accounted for about 17% of the S&P 500's gains. 

Price check 

Tariffs have increased fears that inflation could spike again. But there's been little evidence of a resurgence thus far in economic data, and economists expect a similar story to play out in the coming week.

A fresh look at a key inflation measure will come on Friday with the April PCE release. Economists project annual "core" PCE — which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy — to have clocked in at 2.5% in April, down from the 2.6% seen in March. Over the prior month, economists project "core" PCE at 0.1%, above the 0% seen the month prior.

BofA senior US economist Aditya Bhave wrote in a note to clients that the May inflation data, which will be released in June, will likely provide the "first read" of how tariffs are impacting prices. 

Guidance remains 

Nvidia's earnings report will effectively mark the end of the first quarter reporting period for S&P 500 companies. With 93% of the index done reporting, S&P 500 companies are on pace to have grown earnings by 12.9% compared to the prior year, far above the 7.1% expected on March 31, per FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters. 

Butters's latest earnings research also showed that one of Wall Street strategists' looming fears heading into the reporting period never came to fruition. Despite heightened policy uncertainty, just eight companies withdrew their full-year earnings per share guidance. This is far lower than the 185 companies that withdrew guidance in the first quarter five years ago as the pandemic clouded the corporate operating outlook. 

Confidence in corporates' ability to navigate tariffs has been a key theme backing the recent rally in the market and the reason strategists like Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson see stocks finishing 2025 higher. 

"We continue to prefer US over international equities as earnings revisions start to inflect higher for the S&P 500 relative to MSCI ACWI Ex US (CWI)," Wilson wrote while defending his year-end S&P 500 target of 6,500.

Weekly Calendar

Monday

Markets are closed for Memorial Day.

Tuesday

Economic data: FHFA house price index, month over month, March (+0.1% prior); S&P CoreLogic CS 20-city year over year, non-seasonally adjusted, March (4.5% prior); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, May (87 expected, 86 prior); Durable goods orders, April preliminary (-8.2% expected, +7.5% prior); Capital goods orders non-defense excluding air, April preliminary (0.1% prior); Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, May (-35.8 prior)

Earnings: AutoZone (AZO), Box (BOX), Okta (OKTA)

Wednesday

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending May 23 (-5.1% prior); Richmond Fed manufacturing index, May (-13 prior); FOMC meeting minutes, May meeting

Earnings: Nvidia (NVDA), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), BMO (BMO), C3.AI (AI), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), Macy's (M), Salesforce (CRM) 

Thursday

Economic data: First quarter GDP, second revision (-0.3% annualized rate expected, -0.3% previously); First quarter personal consumption, second revision (+1.8% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended May 24, (227,00 previously); Pending home sales month over month, April (+6.1% previously)

Earnings: American Eagle (AEO), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), Build-a-Bear Workshop (BBW), Costco (COST), Dell (DELL), Foot Locker (FL), Hormel Foods (HRL), Gap (GAP), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Ulta (ULTA), Zscaler (ZS)

Friday

Economic data: PCE inflation, month over month, April (+0.1% expected, 0% previously); PCE inflation, year over year, April (+2.2% expected, +2.3% previously); "Core" PCE, month over month, April (+0.1% expected, 0% previously); "Core" PCE, year over year, April (+2.5% expected; +2.6% previously); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May final (50.8 prior)

Earnings: Canopy Growth (CGC)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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2.

The stock picker's market is back: Chart of the Week

2025-05-24 10:00:07 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

• The chart of the day

• What we're watching

• What we're reading

• Economic data releases and earnings

After about a month of tariff headlines pushing the market both up and down in unison, the market mood took a turn in May. 

When President Trump announced his first reciprocal tariff pause, the rolling one-month correlation of stocks within the S&P 500 (^GSPC) peaked at nearly 0.7 as the rising tide lifted nearly all boats. This was rare: Going back over the past five years, the only other times such a high correlation has been seen were in 2022 when the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates and during the initial market reaction to the onset of the pandemic in 2020. 

For investors, these market moments all have a familiar feeling. They were macro moments, the kind of time period in which what's happening to each company on an individual basis can suddenly become insignificant if a headline from the administration changes the overall market story. 

But as our Chart of the Week shows, those headlines have increasingly ceded territory back to the individual stock stories themselves. The rolling one-month S&P 500 correlation is now hovering below 0.3.

This, according to Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz, has brought the market back to the micro, creating the kind of market where certain stocks could outperform because they're less exposed to tariffs than others. 

Or perhaps they're economically cyclical names that could benefit should the economic data fail to turn as dour as some surveys warn.

To use the common term often cited by Wall Street strategists, it appears we may once again be entering a "stock picker's market."

"We are transitioning to a backdrop with mixed data and mixed views," Kantrowitz wrote in a note to clients on May 21. "This should keep market correlations low, as stocks should trade more with micro fundamentals and not entirely on macro headlines like we saw earlier this year."

He added that"many of the macro fears that remain are more likely to be issues that differentiate stocks rather than dominate all of them," leaving investors with their work cut out for them.

To be clear, most strategists, including Kantrowitz, have been quick to point out that this doesn't mean there's been an all clear for a further full risk-on rally in the markets. There is still a looming drop-off in economic data that many expect. And the tariff pauses are still just that: pauses. With Friday's stock slide after Trump threatened further tariffs on the European Union and Apple, investors got a sharp reminder that the trade war back-and-forth isn't over.

Still, as Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson wrote in his mid-year outlook sent to clients on Thursday, the focus now for investors is on "the rate of change" in policy expectations, economic data, and company earnings. 

As Trump's most recent threat to escalate tariffs again showed Friday, abrupt changes in those rates of change remain in play.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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3.

1 Unstoppable ETF That Could Turn $40,000 Into $1 Million

2025-05-24 09:05:00 by David Jagielski, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Key Points

• The Invesco QQQ Trust gives investors exposure to most of the largest stocks on the Nasdaq exchange.

• The exchange-traded fund has averaged a compound annual growth rate of more than 18% over the past five years.

• It has the potential to turn a $40,000 investment into a holding worth more than $1 million -- but it'll probably take a few decades.

• 10 stocks we like better than Invesco QQQ Trust ›

If you want to retire with at least $1 million in your nest egg, then putting a large lump sum of cash into the stock market and simply leaving it there for the long haul could be an excellent plan to achieve that. However, you don't want to put that money into just any kind of an investment.

Even if you think Nvidia is going to continue soaring or that Palantir Technologies will eventually hit a $1 trillion market cap in the near future, for example, investing in individual stocks adds more risk into the equation -- and the fewer baskets your "eggs" are concentrated in, the riskier things get. Matters frequently don't go according to business execs' plans. In just the past five years, there's been a pandemic, widespread supply chain issues, a period of soaring inflation, and now, President Trump's tariffs for companies and investors to worry about. Regardless of what company you're considering, there will be a lot of factors that it has no control over that wind up having drastic effects on its operations.

That's why the safest way to invest for the long term is to hold a diverse mix of stocks. And an easy way to acquire that is by investing in an exchange-traded fund (ETF). If you're looking for one that could maximize your potential gains and focus on top-performing growth stocks, an ideal pick to consider is the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ). Here's how a $40,000 investment in it today could grow into a position worth $1 million or more in the future.

A position in the best Nasdaq stocks

The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF is an attractive option for long-term growth investors because it holds the tech-heavy Nasdaq's top stocks. Specifically, it tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, which includes the largest 100 non-financial stocks on the exchange.

On the one hand, this gives you a lot of diversification -- positions in 100 different stocks. But on the other, it's also not too much diversification, such as you could get from ETFs that hold many hundreds or even thousands of stocks. Excessive diversification is apt to mean more muted gains because no matter how well the highest-performing stocks in a portfolio fare, they won't have much of an impact on a fund's total results if each of them accounts for only a tiny slice of the overall pie. Tracking the Nasdaq-100, however, can provide investors with a great balance. Moreover, because the ETF, like the index it tracks, is market-cap weighted, the biggest companies (many of them tech sector names you'll recognize) account for the largest shares of its value, and thus have the strongest impacts on its returns.

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint

Over the past five years, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has risen in value by nearly 130%, averaging a compound annual growth rate of approximately 18%, which is far higher than the S&P 500's long-run average of around 10%. Over a longer time frame, however, the fund's growth rate is likely to slow down, simply because of how hot the market has been in recent years and how difficult it is to sustain that high a rate of growth for decades.

But even if you expect an average annualized return that's closer to around 10%, that could still grow a $40,000 investment into a $1 million position, but it will take a bit more time. The table below shows you what your balance could grow into after periods of 30 years or more, based on varying average annual returns.

Year	9% Growth	10% Growth	11% Growth
30	$530,707	$697,976	$915,692
31	$578,471	$767,774	$1,016,418
32	$630,533	$844,551	$1,128,224
33	$687,281	$929,006	$1,252,329
34	$749,136	$1,021,907	$1,390,085
35	$816,559	$1,124,097	$1,542,994
36	$890,049	$1,236,507	$1,712,723
37	$970,153	$1,360,158	$1,901,123
38	$1,057,467	$1,496,174	$2,110,246
39	$1,152,639	$1,645,791	$2,342,374
40	$1,256,377	$1,810,370	$2,600,035

Calculations by author.

It could take approximately 34 years, based on the long-run market average return, for a $40,000 investment today to become worth $1 million. But a lot inevitably depends on that average return, which, unfortunately, is the most difficult variable to account for. It's impossible to reliably forecast what the market's growth rate will be over any time frame at all, let alone decades.

The Invesco ETF is a no-brainer buy for long-term investors

If you plan on keeping your investments in the stock market for at least the next 10 years, then it's easy to justify investing in the Invesco QQQ Trust. While Wall Street will invariably experience periods of short-term volatility, over the longer term, growth stocks as a class are likely to rise significantly in value. And with 100 stocks in the fund, you're also getting some great diversification through just a single investment, making it a solid option to put in your portfolio and just hang on to.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $640,662!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $814,127!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 963% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 168% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025

David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

1 Unstoppable ETF That Could Turn $40,000 Into $1 Million was originally published by The Motley Fool

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4.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as Trump tariff threats roar back, US deficit anxiety deepens

2025-05-23 20:00:55 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks fell on Friday to register weekly losses as investors assessed President Trump's latest tariff threats and the potential impact of his massive tax bill on the deficit and the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) sank 0.6%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also fell roughly 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) backed off about 1%. 

All three major averages fell more than 2% for the week. 

The three indexes trimmed steeper losses that followed Trump's comment on Friday that Apple (AAPL) must pay a 25% tariff on iPhones sold but not made in the US. The tech giant has begun shifting some manufacturing to India, with China, home to its key suppliers, locked in a trade war with the US. Apple shares fell about 3%.

On Friday afternoon, Trump implied the tariffs would apply to other cell phone manufacturers. 

"It would be more, it would be also Samsung and anybody that makes that product, otherwise it wouldn't be fair," Trump told reporters on Friday afternoon. "Again, when they build their plant here there's no tariffs. So they're going to be building plants here."

At the same time, Trump threatened to hike the tariff on EU imports to "a straight 50%" beginning June 1 as trade talks with the bloc have stalled.

The president's warnings shattered a more muted mood on Wall Street as investors wound down to the Memorial Day trading break on Monday. 

His comments also created another supply chain complication for companies that are already worried about the potential hit to the economy from Trump's tariff blitz. Earnings season has seen several companies hold off from providing full annual guidance due to uncertainty around tariffs.

Stocks have suffered this week as deficit worries pushed up Treasury yields, which intensified as Trump's tax bill forged ahead. Wall Street is still weighing the economic impact of Trump's revised bill, which cleared a key hurdle in the House vote for approval.

Fears that the legislation could boost the US deficit by trillions have stoked a surge in longer-dated Treasury yields, which were already in focus after a Moody's downgrade. The 30-year yield (^TYX) eased but held above the key level of 5% on Friday after recently reaching highs not seen since the financial crisis.

Wall Street's attention has also begun to turn to Nvidia (NVDA) earnings, due Wednesday after the bell. 

This year, the chip giant has found itself in the crosshairs of Trump's fast-moving trade policy as well as debates in Big Tech over costly AI investments. Nevertheless, options traders expect a lower level of volatility in Nvidia's stock after its results next week, compared with recent quarters. 

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5.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq seesaw as bond sell-off eases after House OKs Trump tax bill

2025-05-22 20:04:57 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks made little progress on Thursday as investors assessed the House's narrow vote to approve President Trump's "big, beautiful" tax bill and what it means for the growing US debt pile.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was roughly flat. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) narrowly fell into negative territory on the day, sliding less than 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popped about 0.3%. All three indexes gave up solid gains in the final hours of trading.

The House of Representatives passed Trump's giant tax-and-spending package by a single vote after a last-gasp revision aimed at winning over conservative Republican holdouts. Changes including a more generous deduction for state and local taxes paved the way for the bill moving a step closer to becoming law.

Wall Street is worried that the legislation could add trillions to the existing $36 trillion deficit, especially after Moody's directly cited the proposal in downgrading the US credit rating.

Longer-dated bond yields, in high focus after a Moody's downgrade shined a spotlight on the US debt, eased after a steady march higher in recent days. The 30-year yield (^TYX) dipped slightly below 5.1% after it flirted with highs last seen during the financial crisis. The benchmark 10-year yield (^TNX) fell to around 4.55%.

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) continued to set fresh record highs, topping $111,000 for the first time as the leading cryptocurrency rose over 3% to $111,878. Ether (ETH-USD) also made gains amid growing institutional demand.

US economic output rebounded in May as businesses digested President Trump's tariff rollback. S&P Global's flash US composite PMI, which captures activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors, climbed to 52.1 in May, compared to 50.6 in April.

Meanwhile, in a sign of a softening US labor market, the weekly report on initial jobless claims released on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on a continuing basis totaled 1.9 million, bringing the four-week moving average of continuing claims to its highest level since November 2021.

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6.

Nvidia, Tesla lead over $250 billion in short-seller losses during massive market rally

2025-05-22 13:33:40 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The market's rapid bounce back to near-record highs over the past month has not been kind to investors betting against US stocks. 

From the market bottom on April 8 through May 20, short sellers have lost more than $250 billion, according to data from S3 Partners. All of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks were among the top 20 names on which short investors lost the most money. Shorts on Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) lost more than $19 billion combined during the period. 

Both Nvidia and Tesla have benefited from individual catalysts throughout the run. For Nvidia, easing trade restrictions have been a boost for the AI chip leader headed into its next earnings release on May 28. Meanwhile, Tesla stock has rocketed higher as CEO Elon Musk returned his focus to the company after a stint with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). 

The short squeeze hasn't just happened in large-cap tech names. It's been a core theme of the most recent market rally. Over the past several weeks, short sellers were also hammered in popular retail trading names. Losses in Palantir (PLTR) and Hims & Hers (HIMS) totaled more than $2 billion. Short sellers in the bitcoin-focused company Strategy (MSTR) lost more than $5 billion. 

Palantir shares have risen more than 55% since the market bottom. Strategy shares have soared over 68%. Hims & Hers stock has more than doubled. All three stocks have far outpaced the 17% gain in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) over that time period. 

The broad market rally began on April 9, when President Trump announced a 90-day delay on a wide swath of his "reciprocal" tariffs. This led the S&P 500 to its best day since 2008. But the rip-roaring rally didn't stop there. 

As Trump has pulled back further on other duties, stocks chugged higher. While strategists have digested the large move higher in stocks that recently brought the S&P 500 back within 3% of its record close, some believe short-covering helped contribute to the rally, as many market participants had turned bearish. 

"I don't actually think it is so much a validation of strong fundamentals [within the stock market] as it is a reflection of the fact that the market was caught short at a time when there was no actual fundamental information available," BNP Paribas head of debt and equity strategy Viktor Hjort told Yahoo Finance.

With the broader market back at levels not seen since February, Hjort said, the next catalyst for stocks lies in economic data and whether it reflects resiliency despite tariffs that have gone into effect. 

"We are going into June with a much more balanced, perhaps slowly more vulnerable type of market setup, at a time where we're going to start getting real data," Hjort said. 

Leigh Vogel via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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7.

Prediction: This Growth ETF Will Crush the S&P 500 Over the Next 10 Years

2025-05-22 07:00:00 by Katie Brockman, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Key Points

• With stock prices soaring, now could be a smart time to invest in the market.

• Growth ETFs have a better chance of earning above-average returns while still limiting risk.

• This fund has nearly tripled the S&P 500 since its launch, and it could help supercharge your portfolio over time.

• 10 stocks we like better than Invesco QQQ Trust ›

Despite the waves of turbulence in recent weeks, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has experienced a record-breaking few years. In the past five years alone, the index has surged by more than 103%, as of this writing.

But many individual stocks and funds have outperformed the S&P 500 in that time, and with a careful curation of investments, it's possible to beat the market by a significant margin. While nobody can say for certain where the market is headed in the coming months, there's one growth ETF with the potential to crush the S&P 500 over the next decade.

An ETF that has stood the test of time

If you're looking for a growth ETF that has a proven track record of recovering from tough times while still earning above-average returns, Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQ) could be a smart buy right now.

Launched in 1999, QQQ has decades of experience surviving even severe downturns. It pulled through the dot-com bubble burst of the early 2000s, the Great Recession, the COVID-19 crash in 2020, the bear market throughout 2022, and all of the smaller corrections along the way.

But this fund not only survived those rough patches. In spite of them all, it also managed to significantly outperform the market. Over the last 10 years, QQQ has more than doubled the total returns of the S&P 500.

Now, there are no guarantees that this ETF will continue performing at this rate. Around 57% of QQQ is allocated to stocks in the tech industry, which tends to be more volatile than many other sectors.

That said, many of the largest holdings are power players in their industries and are thus more likely to survive periods of market turbulence. Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple make up around 25% of the entire fund, with the top 10 holdings making up just over 50% of the ETF.

With more weight toward these juggernaut corporations, there's a better chance this fund will pull through rough patches.

A word of caution before you buy

With any investment, it's wise to keep a long-term outlook. The market can be unpredictable in the short term, and if we eventually face a recession or bear market, even strong stocks and funds may be hit hard.

This is especially true with growth ETFs like QQQ. Although its long-term performance is staggering, there were several years when it underperformed the market.

After the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, for example, QQQ faced a brutal crash and would consistently earn below-average returns for most of the next decade. But by today, it's nearly tripled the total returns of the S&P 500.

The past 10 years have been phenomenal for QQQ, and at the rate it's going, it has a good chance of continuing to beat the S&P 500 over the next decade. But keeping a long-term outlook is key. Historically, those who have earned the most with this investment were the ones who stayed in the market for the long haul -- even when things looked bleak.

Again, there are never any guarantees in the stock market, so there's no telling precisely where Invesco QQQ will be in the coming decade. But this ETF has an extensive track record of surviving periods of volatility and earning positive long-term returns, making it a good choice if you're looking to balance risk and reward.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $642,582!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $829,879!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 975% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025

Katie Brockman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: This Growth ETF Will Crush the S&P 500 Over the Next 10 Years was originally published by The Motley Fool

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8.

Stock market today: Dow sheds 800 points, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide as Treasury yields surge, bitcoin hits record

2025-05-21 20:05:51 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks stumbled Wednesday as bond yields continued to climb, putting pressure on equities as Wall Street fretted about the ballooning US debt while Republican leaders aimed to ready President Trump's tax bill for a House vote.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell more than 1.9%, or about 800 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid about 1.6%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 1.4%. All three major indexes moved lower after a 1 p.m. 20-year bond auction saw weak demand, and Treasury yields surged. 

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) added 11 basis points to hit 4.59%, while the 30-year Treasury yield (^TYX) added 12 basis points to 5.09%, hovering near its highest level since 2023.

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) rallied to a fresh record of over $109,000 earlier in the session before reversing with the broader market.

Markets are reassessing a recent rally, with the S&P 500 snapping a six-day run of gains as relief over the surprise US-China trade truce faded. Meanwhile, growing concern about the US deficit and ballooning debt has intensified attention on discussions around Trump's tax-and-spending bill.

Wall Street is keeping a close eye on Trump's giant tax bill, as Republicans try to appease all factions of their splintered caucus. Anxieties about the budget bill and the US debt have helped push up US bond yields.

Meanwhile, the US and China have begun feuding over chips again, less than two weeks after agreeing to a temporary pause in tariff hostilities. The Trump administration's warnings against using AI chips by Huawei have undermined the recent trade talks in Geneva, China said, putting the fragile trade deal at risk and reviving worries about economic fallout.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Tariffs were in focus for Target's first quarter results, after Trump told retailers they need to "eat" the costs of duties and not pass them on to customers. The discount retailer missed badly on quarterly earnings and cut its full-year outlook, but its top executives repeatedly declined to say whether Target will follow Walmart (WMT) in passing on costs of tariffs via price hikes.

Currency concerns also have alarm bells ringing as the US dollar fell to a two-week low, with traders eyeing the ongoing G-7 meeting for signs the Trump administration may favor a weaker currency.

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9.

The Best Stocks to Invest $50,000 in Right Now

2025-05-21 08:25:00 by Justin Pope, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Key Points

• The Invesco QQQ ETF offers instant investment diversification and ample exposure to mega-cap technology leaders.

• It wouldn't hurt to complement it with market leaders with successful track records.

• Netflix, Palo Alto Networks, and Sony are leaders in lucrative fields such as streaming, cybersecurity, and gaming.

• 10 stocks we like better than Netflix ›

Deciding how to invest a lump sum of cash -- say, $50,000 -- is difficult.

The typical U.S. household has just $200,000 in retirement savings by age 65, so $50,000 in cash is a lot of money to most individual investors.

You should look to grow that money, but not recklessly. It can take years to save $50,000, so you don't want to wipe out your portfolio with risky stocks or margin loans. Instead, look to high-quality technology companies with ironclad balance sheets and ample growth prospects to lift your portfolio over the coming years.

Here are some of the best stocks to invest $50,000, or any lump sum, in right now.

The Invesco QQQ ETF is the ideal starting point

It's hard to go wrong when you start with the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ). This exchange-traded fund tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, which includes the top 100 holdings in the Nasdaq Composite index. In other words, you get investment exposure to many individual companies with a single ticker symbol. That's instant diversification, a great way to mitigate risk when you invest a lump sum.

The Invesco QQQ ETF features technology stocks, with approximately 57% of the fund's assets devoted to the sector. The Magnificent Seven dominate the ETF's top holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms (Facebook), Nvidia, and Tesla.

These companies are leaders in numerous technology markets, including cloud computing, artificial intelligence, digital ads, electric vehicles, robotics, and more. They generate hundreds of billions of dollars in cash profits, making them an ideal combination of safety and long-term upside.

The Invesco QQQ ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 over its lifetime. That doesn't guarantee it will continue, but it makes the ETF arguably the best technology stock today.

These three individual stocks are industry leaders with excellent track records

Want to sprinkle in some individual stocks with upside? Consider these top-notch contenders. They have entrenched leadership positions in their respective fields and exemplary histories of delivering outsized investment returns over extended periods.

Netflix's long-term outlook remains promising

Streaming has taken the reins from cable television, a long-term trend that originated with Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX). The company started with disc rentals, but launched its streaming platform in 2007. Today, Netflix is a global behemoth with over 300 million subscribers and $40 billion in trailing 12-month revenue.

In its early years, Netflix struggled to profit, but it has reached a size where revenue grows faster than content spending. The company's net profit margins have expanded from under 3% a decade ago to over 23%.

The long-term outlook remains promising. Netflix has broken into new content categories, including mobile gaming and live sporting events, and international markets still have plenty of room for expansion. It's hard not to like the company's chances of continuing to grow profitably for the foreseeable future.

Palo Alto Networks has access to growth opportunities

Cybersecurity continually evolves to keep up with advanced threats and hackers. The stakes are high, with the typical breach costing companies over $4 million in damages. Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) is a security stalwart, most known for its leadership in cutting-edge firewall security.

About a year ago, the company shifted toward a platformization strategy, pushing its customers to move from piecemeal solutions to standardizing on its three primary product platforms. A significant business model change can disrupt a company's short-term performance, but the strategy appears to be planting seeds for long-term growth.

Palo Alto Networks should see plenty of growth opportunities for its network and cloud security technology moving forward, as more companies adopt cloud-based solutions and look to innovative solutions, like AI, to help protect themselves from threats.

Sony: An international stock with durable growth ahead

Electronics giant Sony Group (NYSE: SONY) is well-known among consumers, likely more so for the PlayStation gaming console than anything else. Sony is currently on its fifth-generation console, the PlayStation 5, which has sold over 77 million units since its launch in November 2020.

Investors who aren't gamers may underestimate the size of the video game industry. According to Straits Research, the global video game industry was worth approximately $221 billion last year, and could grow to over $424 billion by 2033.

Sony has done so well with PlayStation that archrival Microsoft, which owns the Xbox platform, has started to bring some exclusive titles to the PlayStation, a sign that Sony and Nintendo could be running away with the console market. Sony is a fantastic stock for investors looking for an international stock with durable growth ahead.

Should you invest $1,000 in Netflix right now?

Before you buy stock in Netflix, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Netflix wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $642,582!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $829,879!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 975% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Palo Alto Networks and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The Best Stocks to Invest $50,000 in Right Now was originally published by The Motley Fool

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10.

DIA Gains $576M in Assets as Treasury Yields Retreat

2025-05-20 22:15:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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11.

Stock market today: S&P 500 snaps 6-day win streak; Dow, Nasdaq slide as tariff relief rally fades

2025-05-20 20:01:00 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks pulled back from their recent rally on Tuesday amid growing warnings that investor relief over a cooling in trade tensions and in US inflation may be misplaced.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell almost 0.3% lower in the wake of component Home Depot's (HD) mixed earnings report. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped almost 0.4% each, with the benchmark index breaking its recent six-day win streak.

Since the US and China struck a deal to temporarily roll back tariffs last week, markets have been shaking off fears of a trade war and enjoying a rally. But concerns are growing — including from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon — that investors' confidence could be overblown. Tariff levels remain high, and a growing chorus of Federal Reserve officials say they see interest rate cuts on hold until September amid trade uncertainty.

St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said tariffs could still cause a "significant" impact despite the latest US-China trade reprieve.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Focus came on Home Depot's results for clues to the Trump tariff fallout after retail giant Walmart (WMT) warned last week that it will have to push up prices. Home Depot's profit fell short as same-store sales faltered, but its revenue topped forecasts and the home improvement chain held to its previous guidance. Its shares fell around 1% in late trading.

Meanwhile, Trump's tax bill continues to face challenges moving through the US House. Trump on Tuesday ventured to Capitol Hill, seeking to reassure and prod both the party's fiscal hawks and a contingent of mostly blue-state Republicans looking to boost the cap on the state and local tax deduction.

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12.

Stock market rally driven by 'unwarranted optimism' as tariff risk looms over $9 trillion rebound

2025-05-20 19:49:16 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

After a massive drawdown in the initial reaction to President Trump's April 2 tariff announcement, major stock indexes have roared back, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) adding $9 trillion in market value in just over a month.

But after six straight days of gains that have brought the S&P 500 within 3% of a new all-time high, some on Wall Street are cautioning the market rally may have extended too far, even if the probability of recession has declined in recent days.

"Equity markets have reacted with unwarranted optimism, overlooking the persistent economic drag posed by elevated tariffs," EY chief economist Gregory Daco wrote in a research note on Tuesday.

The latest tariff delay, a 90-day pause on duties between the US and China, moved the estimated effective tariff rate from around 25% down to 14%, according to Daco. As we noted in the Yahoo Finance Chart of the Week, this better-than-expected tariff outcome helped drive the latest boost in stocks.

But now, with markets back at levels not seen since late February, Daco fears investors may be ignoring the fact that the effective US tariff rate remains at its highest level since 1939. And while the economic story has improved, forecasts aren't calling for accelerating growth either. Daco projects that US economic growth will approach "stall speed" by the fourth quarter, with GDP rising just 0.6% from the year prior in the final three months of 2025.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Daco expects tariffs to eventually result in higher prices and weigh on household demand. He sees real consumer spending growing 2.2% in 2025 and that rate slowing further to 1.1% in 2026. In 2024, real consumer spending advanced 2.8%.

"While the near-term outlook is more constructive, risks remain tilted to the downside," Daco said.

Still, it appears that investors are hoping the effective tariff rate will come down further, limiting impact to the economy. In a research note sent to clients on May 16, Deutsche Bank US equity strategist Parag Thatte noted that discretionary investors have moved back to an overweight position in stocks, which reflects no slowing in earnings growth or GDP on the horizon.

"An increase in tariff rates of this magnitude will weigh on growth, but discretionary investors are likely factoring in additional rollbacks and exemptions once the impacts start to manifest," Thatte wrote.

On Monday, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned that he sees an "extraordinary amount of complacency" in markets after investors clawed back their "Liberation Day" losses. Dimon added that the risks of "stagflation," where economic growth slows and inflation reaccelerates, remain.

"I do think there is some complacency [in markets]," Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders told Yahoo Finance when asked about Dimon's comments. 

Sonders pointed out that at the bottom of the market drawdown, investor sentiment had hit historically low levels. Since then, market sentiment has made a U-turn as a large tech rally has led the rebound.

"We may be at that point where the setup, from a sentiment perspective, suggests that the market could have some downside if we get a negative catalyst," Sonders said. "And that's really the best way to think about this market. It's hard to judge it based on what policy announcements are going to be and when they're going to come. That's a fool's errand."

Sonders believes a turn in economic data could be the key negative catalyst, should one emerge at all. Consumer sentiment and other surveys have tumbled in the wake of the tariffs, with both businesses and consumers bracing for higher prices. But that hasn't played out in data that measures actual economic activity thus far.

Read more: What is consumer confidence, and why does it matter?

In April, a reading of wholesale inflation showed "core" producer prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, decreased 0.4% over the prior month. This followed a separate Bureau of Labor Statistics report that showed consumer prices fell to their lowest level in more than four years during April.

Sonders noted that those surveys were taken early in April and don't reflect a consistent period in which tariffs have been in place. 

"If we were to start to see indications of a pickup in inflation, that could be a negative catalyst that would put, maybe, the Fed further on the back of their heels," Sonders said. 

She added that while there hasn't been any clear sign that the cooling in the labor market is accelerating, that also remains a key risk to the economic narrative that warrants watching.

Spencer Platt via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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13.

March Semiconductor Uptick Masks Looming Tariff Risks

2025-05-20 19:26:43 by Moz Farooque from GuruFocus.com

Global semiconductor sales surged to $55.9 billion in March, recording the first sequential increase after two months of declines.

March sales climbed 1.8 % month-over-month and jumped 18.8 % year-over-year, driven by renewed investments in Europe, China and Asia Pacific, which saw gains between 2.4 % and 5.7 % compared to February. The Americas, despite accounting for a large share of the market, dipped 0.4 % to $18.57 billion as U.S. demand cooled.

The U.S. Department of Commerce's probe into semiconductor imports, potentially paving the way for tariffs, looms over the sector. The Semiconductor Industry Association warned that untargeted tariffs risk reducing American competitiveness by raising the cost of developing technology and manufacturing chips here at home.

For the first quarter, global chip sales totaled $167.7 billion, up 18.8 % from Q1 2024 but down 2.8 % versus Q4 2024. Year-to-date, the Americas lead with a 45.3 % year-on-year surge, followed by Asia Pacific at 15.4 % growth, while China posted a 7.6 % rise in February alone.

Why It Matters: The rebound in March suggests regional diversification is supporting semiconductor demand even as U.S. markets cool, but looming tariffs could undercut this momentum. Investors will be watching Q2 sales and U.S. trade-policy developments for clues on whether this uptrend can persist.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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14.

1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) ETF to Buy With $1,000 and Hold Forever

2025-05-20 09:22:00 by Justin Pope, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Key Points

• The Invesco QQQ ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 through the internet age, and it could happen again with AI.

• Investors get a healthy dose of today's technology leaders, and the ETF will rebalance and reconstitute to change with the times.

• If investors can stomach some volatility, the Invesco QQQ ETF might be the best AI investment for $1,000 or less.

• 10 stocks we like better than Invesco QQQ Trust ›

The internet changed the world, starting back in the 1990s. Yet nobody back then could predict all the new products, services, and industries that exist today thanks to internet technology. I think a similar phenomenon will play out with artificial intelligence (AI) over the coming decades.

In other words, hot products like ChatGPT only scratch the surface of how AI will eventually impact the world.

How do you invest for the unknown? Consider casting a wide net. An exchange-traded fund (ETF) can help, giving investors exposure to many individual companies with just one ticker symbol. For AI, it doesn't get any better than the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ).

Here is why it's the best AI ETF you can buy with $1,000 and hold forever.

Simple, diversified AI exposure from the get-go

The Invesco QQQ is very straightforward. It tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, the top 100 companies in the broader, technology-leaning Nasdaq Composite index.

The ETF is heavy on today's technology leaders, including the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, a group of diversified megacap technology stocks. In all, the Invesco QQQ's top 10 positions include:

Company	Allocation (percentage of the Invesco QQQ)
Microsoft	8.57%
Nvidia	8.37%
Apple	8.08%
Amazon	5.53%
Broadcom	4.59%
Meta Platforms	3.59%
Tesla	3.17%
Netflix	3.15%
Costco Wholesale	2.81%
Alphabet (class A shares)	2.43%

Data source: Invesco QQQ ETF prospectus data.

These stocks comprise roughly half of the ETF, while an additional 91 companies make up the other half.

Want to invest in the companies powering AI? Leading AI chip companies like Nvidia and Broadcom are right there. AI is driving cloud growth, so what about them? Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are the world's leading cloud service providers.

You'll also get industry leaders that can leverage AI to create value in their respective businesses. Netflix and Meta Platforms use AI to match you to the ideal content or advertisement. Tesla plans to build its business on autonomous driving technology and humanoid robotics. The list goes on.

It will evolve as the world does

The Nasdaq-100 and the Invesco QQQ aren't static; they rebalance quarterly and reconstitute annually.

Therefore, the ETF will evolve along with the world. Companies that struggle or lose their edge may become a smaller portion of the ETF, while those that thrive and grow can earn a higher allocation. If some new AI company emerges as the next big thing, it will likely become a top holding in this ETF.

The rebalancing and reconstitution process leans into the investing wisdom of watering the flowers and trimming the weeds -- leaning into the winners and cutting the losers. It's a crucial aspect of holding any investment forever because the world will change over time, so your investment strategy had better adapt if it wants to sustain success.

The ETF has proven it delivers results

The Invesco QQQ's broad technology exposure and periodic adjustments have resulted in tremendous investment returns throughout the internet age. The Invesco QQQ began trading in 1999, at the height of the infamous dot-com bubble. Yet it has outperformed the S&P 500 over its lifetime:

It's not a free ride, though. Technology stocks can sometimes be volatile, and the Invesco QQQ has endured sharp drawdowns throughout history, including multiple drops of more than 30%. If you hold the Invesco QQQ forever, there's a realistic chance you'll experience sharp drops like these again.

History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. The internet ignited an era of technology-fueled growth and innovation, and the Invesco QQQ successfully translated that to tremendous investment returns. If AI does the same, the Invesco QQQ will likely make long-term investors quite wealthy over the coming decades.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $642,582!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $829,879!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 975% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Costco Wholesale, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) ETF to Buy With $1,000 and Hold Forever was originally published by The Motley Fool

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15.

Big Short Investor Michael Burry Bets Big on Market Decline

2025-05-19 21:45:00 by Ron Day from etf.com

Hedge fund manager Michael Burry, famous for making millions betting against the mortgage market in 2008, is again counting on a market decline, this time with a focus on chips and China.

Burry, whose risky investments were chronicled in the 2015 film The Big Short, purchased millions of dollars in puts that will turn profitable if stocks including Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Baidu Inc. (BIDU) and others fall in value, according to an SEC filing made last week. The 13F filing summarizes first-quarter investments of $199.2 million and doesn’t provide dates or details of the purchases.

Burry Hit or Miss

While Burry made more than $800 million for himself and other investors in 2008, according to published reports, recent investments suggest a mixed record of making money. He appears to have sold a Canadian physical gold ETF before gold soared to record prices this year. In 2023, he closed bets he made against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) that appeared to have not paid off.  

Still, with President Donald Trump's tariff war raging and Moody's Ratings downgrade of U.S. debt, many experts and investors are cautioning markets remain vulnerable to declines that would make Burry's bets pay off. 

Besides Nvidia and Baidu, Scion purchases add up to bets against the Chinese internet economy. Burry is short Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), JD.com Inc. (JD), PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) and Trip.com Group (TCOM). Those stocks appear particularly vulnerable to a downturn amid the tariff war that President Trump is waging against China.  

The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), which holds most of those stocks, has gained 14% over the past month.

His only long bet is 200,000 shares in Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL). While that stock is down 13% this year, it’s jumped 20% over the past month.

Scion appears to have last held exchange-traded funds in last year’s second quarter, when the firm held Japan-focused ETFs including the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), along with SPY and QQQ puts. 

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16.

Stock market today: S&P 500 notches 6-day win streak, Dow, Nasdaq rise as Wall Street shakes off Moody's downgrade

2025-05-19 20:01:01 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks managed to eke out gains on Monday as bond yields eased off bigger gains and Wall Street largely shrugged off Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating. Meanwhile, investors digested developments in President Trump's tariff salvos.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up 0.3%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) managed to close above the flatline to extend its 5-day win streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also rose slightly. 

Moody’s cut the US government’s long-term credit rating from AAA to AA1 late Friday, citing escalating deficits and the increasing burden of refinancing US debt amid elevated interest rates. The downgrade brings Moody’s in line with Fitch and S&P, which previously stripped the US of its top-tier rating.

Even as stocks continued their recent bullish run, bumpy progress of the Republican tax-and-spend bill remained in high focus. Longer-dated Treasury yields eased from their session highs. The benchmark 10-year yield (^TNX) had risen to near the key 4.5% level, and the 30-year equivalent (^TYX) broke above 5% — a level not seen since late 2023, before declining. 

On the tariffs front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned countries that their imports will return to facing "Liberation Day" hikes if they don't negotiate deals "in good faith" during the 90-day pause. He added that the US is focused on striking deals with 18 "important" trading partners, speaking in a Sunday interview with CNN.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Trump himself provided a broadside at US retail giant Walmart (WMT) on social media, urging the company to "eat the tariffs." It represented the latest pushback from the president against companies showing consumers the cost of his economic moves, after a brief tit-for-tat last month with Amazon (AMZN). 

This week’s calendar is light on scheduled economic announcements, and the market is monitoring manufacturing data and initial jobless claims. 

On the earnings front, with many of the heavy-hitters already reporting for the quarter, attention will shift to key names in retail. Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) are slated to report later in the week.

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17.

Wall Street says 'buy the dip' after Moody's credit downgrade

2025-05-19 14:39:51 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

A Moody's downgrade of US credit sent stocks lower to start the trading week. But Wall Street strategists don't believe Monday's initial move implies a sustained downward trend.

Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson pointed out that the souring outlook from Moody's on US credit could weigh on bonds, making rising Treasury yields the primary concern for equity investors. And if the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.5%, that could cause weakness in the equity market, per Wilson.

"We would be buyers of such a dip," Wilson wrote. 

Similarly, Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee called the credit adjustment a "non-event" and suggested to "buy the dip" if stocks experience any weakness in reaction to the downgrade. 

On Monday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) both opened lower by about 1% before quickly recovering losses. The S&P 500 finished up about 0.1% while the Nasdaq was roughly flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) inched higher by about 0.3%, or nearly 150 points. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose nine basis points to 4.52%, and the 30-year Treasury yield added about 10 basis points to rise above 5%. Both yields moved lower as the trading session wore on with the 30-year falling to 4.94% and the 10-year sliding below 4.5%.

The moves came after Moody's became the third major credit agency to downgrade US credit, dating back to 2011, late Friday afternoon. S&P lowered its rating in 2011, and Fitch did the same in 2023. Historically, though, these events haven't given much of a signal for whether the US economy is headed for recession or if a rough patch has started for the stock market. 

"Both S&P and Fitch’s downgrades line up with longer term bull markets for US equities, showing that credit rating agency decisions have not provided any signal about the future direction of stock prices," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note to clients on Monday morning. 

Lee at Fundstrat points out that the release of Moody's downgrade doesn't actually provide much new insight on the ballooning fiscal deficit, which had already been a widely talked-about topic.

"There is no 'surprise' here as Moody's is citing facts we already know, the sizable US deficit," Lee wrote. "And we doubt any major fixed income manager is surprised. There is simply no incremental information here."

Importantly, the Moody's downgrade comes as investor sentiment had begun to shift in a more positive direction. Last week, a 90-day tariff pause between the US and China sent stocks roaring. The news, combined with a recent bounceback in corporate earnings revisions, has Wilson feeling positive overall about the direction of the equity market.

Wilson had been telling clients that lower interest rates could be another catalyst for stocks. But with the Federal Reserve likely not cutting interest rates soon and the Moody's downgrade further pressuring bond yields higher, Wilson sees improved earnings revisions as a key for a further rally. 

"Upside progress through 6100 [for the S&P 500] in the near term is dependent on a continued reacceleration in earnings revisions breadth as interest rate relief remains elusive for now," Wilson wrote.

Reuters / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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18.

Trade deals take center stage: What to know this week

2025-05-18 11:30:36 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Growing investor confidence on US trade deals has sent stocks to their highest levels in more than two months, but Moody's Friday downgrade is now weighing on the market.

On Friday, the ratings agency agency downgraded the US sovereign credit rating by one notch, becoming the final major agency to do so, due to worries over the country’s mounting $36 trillion debt.

Last week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 5.3% while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) soared 7.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) popped about 3.4%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now recouped their losses from the initial tariff-driven sell-off in early April and are in positive territory year to date.

Tariff headlines will remain in focus this week, a quiet one for scheduled announcements in markets. Updates on activity in the manufacturing sector and weekly filings for unemployment highlight the light economic calendar. 

With the bulk of companies done reporting first quarter earnings, results from Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), and Workday (WDAY) will be in focus.

Deal or no deal 

The top story in markets remains Trump's trade war. News of a 90-day tariff pause with China sent stocks roaring last week and prompted several Wall Street strategists to get more bullish on their outlooks for the S&P. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday, that tariff rates will go back to "reciprocal" levels if trade deals aren't made during the 90-day pause.

“President Trump has put them on notice that if you do not negotiate in good faith, you will ratchet back up to your April 2 level,” Bessent told CNN.

Bessent added that there are 18 key partners that the US is prioritizing trade deals with, he didn't specify when tariffs might return to reciprocal levels.

President Trump said Friday that the US will set tariff rates for its trading partners within the next few weeks. In a note to clients defending his year-end S&P 500 target of 6,500, Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee wrote that if "tariff deals are soon announced, equities can further recover."

But strategists have also noted that most tariffs are just paused, with negotiations for actual deals still ongoing. This leaves a considerable amount of policy uncertainty lingering in markets. 

"I do think we still need to be a little bit cautious until we have a more cemented agreement, not just with China but with Europe as well. And that's still on the back burner," Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance. 

The Fed's wait

Many economists have argued recession odds significantly decreased over the past week following the latest tariff pause. This has coincided with a shift in the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve this year. 

Investor bets on the Fed's next interest rate cut now favor July, a shift from chances favoring June prior to the tariff delay, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Bloomberg data shows markets are now pricing just two 25 basis point interest rate cuts for the full year, down from three seen the week prior.  

With limited new data coming this week, focus will shift to the nine scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve members. But Bank of America US economist Aditya Bhave doesn't believe investors will learn much new about the Fed's wait-and-see approach. 

"We don't expect a major change in tone relative to recent Fedspeak: most speakers will likely emphasize patience, highlighting the uncertainty ahead and the importance of looking at the totality of policies, not just tariffs," Bhave wrote in a note to clients. 

Bhave holds an out-of-consensus call for the Fed not to cut interest rates at all in 2025.

"In order to cut, the Fed will need to see clear evidence that either the labor market has deteriorated substantially, or inflation has started to ease with the tariff impact behind us," Bhave wrote. "Neither outcome seems imminent."

For now, Fed rate cuts being pushed back hasn't shaken the market as investors have poured into risk assets amid the more optimistic growth outlook for the US economy. 

The Lag 7 

After leading the S&P 500 to two consecutive years of over 20% gains, the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have held back the benchmark index in 2025. 

Research from DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas published on Friday showed the combination of Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) accounted for all of the S&P 500's decline in the first quarter. In fact, without the Magnificent Seven, the S&P 500 would be up 2% this year, per Colas's work. 

Recently, the tides have begun to shift. The Big Tech cohort has accounted for 60% of the S&P 500's gains since the beginning of May, with large rallies from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Tesla leading the charge. Both Tesla and Nvidia are up about 30% or more over the past month, while Microsoft has rallied about 20%. 

Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin boosted his year-end S&P 500 target from 5,900 to 6,100 after the China tariff pause and believes another Big Tech rally could be in store after a strong first quarter earnings season for the group. 

"We expect investors will be attracted to the secular earnings growth profiles of many AI-exposed equities against a backdrop of modest economic growth, especially in light of relatively undemanding current valuations," Kostin wrote.

Weekly calendar

Monday

Economic data: Leading Index, April (-0.8% expected, -0.7% prior)

Earnings: Trip.com (TCOM)

Tuesday

Economic data: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, May (-42.7% prior)

Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, May 16 (+1.1% prior)

Earnings: Baidu (BIDU), Canada Goose (GOOS), Snowflake (SNOW), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Urban Outfitters (URBN), VF Corporation (VFC), Zoom (ZM)

Thursday

Economic data: Chicago Fed nat activity index, April (-0.03 prior); Initial jobless claims, May 17 (229,000 prior); Continuing claims, May 10 (1.88 million prior); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (50.2 prior); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary (50.8 prior); S&P global US composite PMI (50.6 prior); Existing home sales month-over-month, April (+3.2% expected, -5.9% prior); Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, May (-4 prior);

Earnings: Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Autodesk (ADSK), BJ's (BJ), Decker's (DECK), Intuit (INTU), Ralph Lauren (RL), Ross Stores (ROST), TD Bank (TD), Workday (WDAY)

Friday

Economic data: New home sales, month-over-month, April (-3.7% expected, +7.4% prior); Building permits, month-over-month, April final

Earnings: No notable earnings.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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19.

Could Investing $100 a Month Into the Nasdaq-100 Be Your Ticket to Becoming a Millionaire?

2025-05-18 08:08:00 by Adam Spatacco, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Key Points

• The Nasdaq-100 index features a number of high-profile stocks across technology, healthcare, retail, and more.

• The Invesco QQQ ETF is an index fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100, and it has a long-run performance well above the S&P 500.

• The Invesco QQQ has the potential to turn steady $100 contributions into more than $1 million by holding on to your position for the long run.

• 10 stocks we like better than Invesco QQQ Trust ›

Investing in growth stocks can be a great way to generate outsize gains and bolster your portfolio. However, one of the more daunting aspects of investing is choosing individual stocks and figuring out when to cash out your positions. One way to mitigate these dynamics is through index funds, which provide a passive way to generate wealth through steady contributions and a long-run investment horizon.

Let's explore why the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) is a standout performer and assess how a starting point of just $100 can help you become a millionaire.

What is the Invesco QQQ Trust?

The Invesco QQQ ETF is an index fund that tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100. The Nasdaq is a tech-heavy index, and so investing in the Nasdaq-100 gives you a number of high-profile companies, including Palantir Technologies, Broadcom, Adobe, CrowdStrike, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Microsoft, Netflix, and many more.

By gaining exposure to these companies, investors are able to passively invest in emerging themes such as artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, streaming, and semiconductors. In addition, the Invesco QQQ also holds positions in leading international businesses such as MercadoLibre as well as companies that dominate industries outside of technology, such as Costco.

What's nice about investing in the Nasdaq-100 is that your growth portfolio does not hinge on the performance of a single company. Growth stocks generally experience outsize volatility compared to blue chip stocks. However, owning the entire Nasdaq-100 index mitigates some of these risks thanks to its diversified holdings across different industry sectors, company sizes, and geographic demographics.

Another enticing aspect of owning the Invesco QQQ is that its expense ratio is just 0.20%. This means that for every $100 you invest, you'd pay just $0.20 in annual fees.

How has the Invesco QQQ Trust performed over time?

The chart below compares the performance of the Invesco QQQ ETF against that of the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) since the fund's inception. In the long run, the Invesco QQQ boasts a total return of roughly 1,000% -- absolutely trouncing the performance of the S&P 500 index. In addition, the index has also shown consistent rebounds following periods of economic recession, as illustrated by the grey-shaded columns. I think this underscores the resiliency of the businesses that comprise the Nasdaq-100, solidifying its appeal as a market-beating investment vehicle.

Can investing in the Invesco QQQ Trust make you a millionaire?

The Invesco QQQ Trust's performance versus the S&P 500 isn't particularly surprising, especially in recent years. For the last couple of years, megacap technology stocks in particular have witnessed generational gains thanks to the AI revolution. Gains of this magnitude are not sustainable in perpetuity, but with that said I am optimistic that the Nasdaq-100 will continue to outperform the long-run performance of the S&P 500.

In the table below, I've summarized what a starting investment of $100 would look like assuming a 15% annual return from the Nasdaq-100.

Years Invested	Amount
1	$1,315
5	$8,291
10	$24,769
15	$57,910
20	$124,568
25	$258,643
30	$528,315
35	$1,070,721

Source: Author's calculations. 

While the parameters of a $100 monthly contribution and 15% annual return from the Invesco QQQ yield a total just over $1 million, the more important thing to take away from above is that you'll need to hold on to your position for many years (i.e., decades). This underscores the idea that building wealth often requires a long-term time horizon and consistent contributions to winning positions.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $642,582!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $829,879!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 975% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

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*Stock Advisor returns as of May 12, 2025

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Adobe, Alphabet, Costco Wholesale, CrowdStrike, MercadoLibre, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Could Investing $100 a Month Into the Nasdaq-100 Be Your Ticket to Becoming a Millionaire? was originally published by The Motley Fool

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20.

Stock market today: S&P 500 notches 5-day win streak, Nasdaq gains 7% for week as Wall Street shakes off trade war worries

2025-05-16 20:00:47 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks rose on Friday, notching weekly wins across the major averages after an easing in US-China trade tensions. Investors also eyed President Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill, which failed to clear a key hurdle Friday, as consumer confidence sank.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up nearly 0.7%, extending gains for a fifth day in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also gained 0.5%. The tech-heavy index outperformed for the week, notching gains of roughly 7%. 

Wall Street ended the week on a quietly positive note after the surprise US-China tariff rollback kicked it off with a bang and a rally in stocks.

The S&P 500 has erased all its 2025 losses and is positive for the year as an air of normality returned to the market. Investors have jumped back into risky assets, though some wariness has replaced those high spirits in the wake of Walmart's (WMT) warning of tariff-fueled price hikes.

Consumer sentiment fell in May as Americans grew more pessimistic about the inflation outlook, the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed on Friday. The index came in at 50.8, its second-lowest reading on record, down from 52.2 for April. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 7.8%, the highest since 1981.

Meanwhile, markets are staying vigilant for the next major development in Trump's trade push, with a focus on fresh deals and hints of shifts in the thaw with China. The president said Friday that the US “will be sending letters out essentially telling" countries the tariff rate set for their imports within the coming weeks. His administration can't negotiate deals with all partners at once due to limited capacity.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Also in focus was the vote on Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill and the complex negotiations around it. Despite Trump's calls for unity this morning, Republicans voted to oppose the bill, which promises big tax cuts seen as likely positive for the economy, delivering a setback to its progress.

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21.

Consumer sentiment hits second-lowest reading on record

2025-05-16 14:34:34 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

US consumer sentiment tumbled further in May as the impacts of President Trump's tariff policies remained top of mind for Americans.

The latest University of Michigan survey released Friday showed sentiment hit its second-lowest reading on record. The index slid to a reading of 50.8, below the 52.2 seen last month and the 53.4 expected by economists. The reading was just shy of the all-time low of 50 seen in June 2022.

"Uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers' thinking about the economy," Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote in the release. Hsu added that nearly 75% of respondents mentioned tariffs "spontaneously," up from almost 60% in April. 

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 7.3% — the highest since 1981 — from 6.5% the month prior. Just four months ago, consumers had expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year.

Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, also climbed, hitting 4.6% in May, up from 4.4% in April.

"One gets the sense that the American household is under rising stress and this survey captures what is clearly an elevated discontent of the consumer," RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas wrote following the release.

Read more: April inflation breakdown: Food, shelter, and medical care pinch consumers' wallets

The preliminary sentiment reading surveyed consumers from April 22 to May 13, meaning just two days of responses came after the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause. That news had contributed to a massive stock market rally earlier in the week, with both the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) officially erasing all the losses seen following the initial April 2 tariff announcements. 

Hsu noted that "many survey measures" showed some signs of improvement in the two days following the latest tariff pause but were too small to change the overall picture. 

"The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the May 12 pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations," Hsu said. 

The next University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released on May 26.

James Williamson - AMA via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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22.

Stock market today: Dow jumps, Nasdaq snaps 6-day win streak as Walmart previews tariff-fueled price hikes

2025-05-15 20:04:53 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks fluctuated on Thursday as investors weighed Walmart's (WMT) tariff-clouded earnings and digested retail sales and inflation data for further clues to the health of the economy.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained more than 0.6%, or about 250 points. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.2%, breaking a six-day win streak for the tech-heavy index.

Markets are on watch for the next catalyst now that US-China trade-truce euphoria has faded. On Thursday, in the latest development, President Trump said India has offered to "literally charge us no tariffs" on US goods to help clinch a trade deal.

But corporate statements and economic data continued painting a slightly different reality: In its quarterly results, Walmart said its prices will rise as it can't avoid passing on the high costs of tariffs to customers. Walmart shares fell less than 1% on the day.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Meanwhile, retail sales slowed sharply in April, barely rising in a sharp reversal from American consumers' pre-tariff spending burst in March.

But wholesale inflation unexpectedly slowed last month, even as many of Trump's tariffs began coming into effect. The Producer Price Index fell 0.5% in April and rose at a 2.4% annual clip. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) update this week showed inflation pressures easing to four-year lows.

Federal Reserve policymakers have stressed that they are watching for incoming data to provide a clearer picture of the state of the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday again warned of broad economic "uncertainty," saying the US economy may be entering a period with more frequent "supply shocks" and volatile inflation.

Meanwhile, oil tumbled after Trump said the US is "close to maybe doing a deal" with Iran over its nuclear program.

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23.

Retail sales slow sharply in April as pre-tariff spending burst reverses

2025-05-15 12:34:08 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Retail sales slowed in April as Trump's tariffs weighed on US consumers who pulled forward spending on some key categories into March ahead of these levies. 

Headline retail sales rose 0.1% in April, slightly above economists' expectations for sales to be flat month on month and well below the 1.7% increase seen in March, according to Census Bureau data. 

The control group in Thursday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, fell 0.2%; control group sales had risen 0.5% in March. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. 

March sales excluding auto and gas rose 0.2%, below consensus estimates for a 0.3% increase and a move lower from the 1.1% increase seen the month prior.

A 2.5% drop in sales at sporting goods and hobby stores led the declines, while sales at department stores fell 1.4%. Specialized retailers also saw a 2.1% decline last month. 

April's data follows a large increase in March, when sales rose by the most in more than two years as consumers snatched up goods before a large part of Trump's tariffs were set to be implemented. 

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

Thursday's reading covers the month of April, during which Trump pushed tariffs to their highest level in more than a century before pausing a wide array of "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from most countries, excluding China. The data does not cover any activity since the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause earlier this week. 

While tariffs have appeared to impact spending over the past two months, their influence on other economic data has yet to fully materialize. 

On Thursday, a reading of wholesale inflation showed "core" producer prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, decreased 0.4% over the prior month. This follows a report from earlier in the week that showed consumer prices fell to their lowest level in more than four years during April.

Still, economists believe tariffs will eventually lead to higher prices for American consumers later this year and likely weigh on spending.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

"There are signs that the underlying trend in spending is slowing," Oxford Economics deputy chief US economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. 

"Retail spending will weaken in the months ahead, first as a natural hangover from the front-loading, and then as a broader slowdown in response to tariff-fueled price increases."

Scott Olson via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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24.

Stock market today: Nasdaq notches 6th day of gains as Nvidia, chips lead tech rally

2025-05-14 20:05:48 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks mostly floated higher on Wednesday as techs drove the Nasdaq higher while Wall Street continued to debate the state of play on tariffs.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up about 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, popping about 0.7%, for its sixth straight day of gains.

A tech rally helped push the Nasdaq higher, with shares of AMD (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than 4%. Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) ticked higher by over 3%, and shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) soared more than 15%. Nvidia's surge over the past several days has put it back in positive territory for the year.

Prospects for the chipmaker — and the AI trade more widely — got a boost from plans to overhaul curbs on chip exports and new AI deals led by Saudi Arabia. The President Trump-backed moves come as markets debate the staying power of a "Magnificent Seven" rally driven by the US-China trade truce.

Nvidia server maker Foxconn (2317.TW, HNHPF) flagged strong AI demand as it posted a 91% surge in quarterly profit on Wednesday. But the Taiwanese partner to Apple (AAPL) also cut its full-year outlook, citing uncertainty around tariffs.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Earnings season elsewhere continued to show strain from trade tensions. American Eagle (AEO) became the latest company to withdraw guidance due to "macro uncertainty" on Tuesday, and the clothing retailer's stock tumbled in premarket trading.

In Japan, Sony (SONY) said it expects a $700 million impact from US tariffs and offered a disappointing forecast that wipes out its expected rise in profit.

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25.

The China tariff pause has Wall Street scaling back recession calls

2025-05-14 10:00:54 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Trump's latest tariff pause has Wall Street reeling back its recession calls. 

Discussion of an economic downturn later in 2025 had surged as economists argued Trump's widespread tariffs would boost inflation and slow economic growth. Now, with the bulk of tariffs on goods from China paused for 90 days — and optimism around further trade deals building — economists argue that economic growth will still slow later this year, but the odds of a recession have diminished.

"The administration's recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the US economy slips into recession this year," wrote JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli, who had been the first Wall Street economist to call for a recession after Trump's large tariff increase.

"We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50%." 

Feroli's logic is simple: Tariffs are essentially a tax. With the latest tariff cuts, the estimated effective US tariff rate has fallen from roughly 24% to 14%. This creates a $300 billion "tax cut" for American consumers that likely would've been swallowing the brunt of the price increases caused by tariffs. Americans paying higher prices and eventually being unable to spend as much was a key part of why economists have been worried about tariffs leading to an economic slowdown. 

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

"The rolling back of this tax should provide some relief to consumer spending, and in our modeling is enough to tip the second-half growth outlook from one of modest contraction to one of modest growth," Feroli wrote.

Feroli isn't alone in believing recession odds are diminishing as the US scales back its tariff escalation. Both Yardeni Research and Goldman Sachs have also lowered their recession odds in reaction to the US pausing the bulk of its tariffs on Chinese goods.

Goldman Sachs' economics team moved its recession probability for the next 12 months down to 35% from a prior forecast of 45% while boosting its GDP forecast to 1% growth for the year, higher than a prior forecast of 0.5%. 

Read more: What is a recession, and how does it impact you?

Yardeni, meanwhile, now sees 2025 GDP in a range of 1.5% to 2.5%, up from a prior projection in the 0.5% to 1.5% range. Barclays' economics team, which had previously called for a recession, removed its call for an economic downturn in a note to clients on Tuesday. 

"We think these lower tariff rates on China will be considerably less disruptive for domestic activity, labor markets, and less inflationary, than prior rates," Barclays chief US economist Marc Giannoni wrote. 

Giannoni pointed to how the tariffs on Chinese goods had already led to slower inbound cargo shipments into the US. Economists had cited this as one potential catalyst for the start of a recession, as slower shipments would eventually lead to lower inventory and higher prices for goods. That cycle would lead to consumers buying fewer goods and, eventually, companies being forced to cut employees as their sales slow. The increased likelihood of an eventual lower tariff rate on Chinese goods mitigates this risk.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

To be sure, economic forecasts are just that — forecasts. And while the likelihood of a downturn has shifted, risks remain for a US economy that already features a cooling labor market and is expected to see rising inflation later this year.

Still, the more sanguine economic forecasts have provided a boost for stocks.

In the initial reaction to Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, skyrocketing odds of a recession spooked more than 10 Wall Street strategists to slash their year-end target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). 

Read more: How to protect your money during turmoil, stock market volatility

Now the same trend has been happening in reverse. Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni pointed out in a Monday night to clients that the odds of a recession on popular online betting platform Polymarket have tumbled from 51% last Friday to less than 40% after Trump's China tariff delay. 

In that same note to clients, Yardeni boosted his year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,000 to 6,500. The Goldman Sachs equity strategy team made a similar move, now forecasting the benchmark index to end the year at 6,100, up from a prior call for 5,900.

"We raise our S&P 500 return and earnings forecasts to incorporate lower tariff rates, better economic growth, and less recession risk than we previously expected," Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a note to clients.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

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26.

SPY Adds $2B as Market Soars on China Tariff Cut

2025-05-13 22:00:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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27.

Wall Street strategists raise outlooks for US stocks as China tariff pause eases growth fears

2025-05-13 15:46:58 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Wall Street strategists are once again growing more bullish on the outlook for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) this year as a 90-day truce between the US and China on tariffs has sparked a market rally.

On Monday night, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,100 from a prior forecast of 5,900. Meanwhile, Yardeni Research boosted its year-end projection to 6,500, up from a previous call for 6,000. Yardeni's more bullish target of 6,500 reflects a roughly 11% additional gain from current levels for the benchmark index. Both firms mentioned diminishing fears of a major growth slowdown as a key reason stocks will continue to move higher.

"We raise our S&P 500 return and earnings forecasts to incorporate lower tariff rates, better economic growth, and less recession risk than we previously expected," Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a note to clients. 

"Among our main concerns about Trump's Tariff Turmoil was that the drop in stock prices would have a significant negative wealth effect on consumers," Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni wrote. "After [Monday's] stock market rally, the negative wealth effect is probably insignificant."

The forecast raises come after the US and China announced a 90-day tariff delay on Monday. The scaling back of the trade war brought economists' estimated effective US tariff rate down from roughly 24% to 14%. More importantly, the pause has many on Wall Street feeling like a recession is now far less likely in 2025. This marks a key reversal from the prior two months, where 11 strategy teams, including Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research, had lowered their S&P 500 targets as concerns over an economic growth slowdown escalated.

But after the latest tariff delay, Goldman's economics team moved down its recession probability for the next 12 months to 35% from a prior forecast of 45% while boosting its GDP forecast to 1% growth for the year, higher than a prior forecast of 0.5%. Yardeni now sees 2025 GDP in a range of 1.5% to 2.5%, up from a prior projection in the 0.5% to 1.5% range.

Kostin at Goldman points out that increased GDP projections lead to a higher earnings forecast in its S&P 500 target model. He highlighted that a 100 basis point increase in GDP counts for about 3 or 4 percentage points of S&P 500 earnings growth.

"Our updated fair value estimate reflects reduced uncertainty, faster earnings growth, lower inflation, and renewed confidence in the fundamentals for the largest stocks in the index," Kostin wrote. "However, already-optimistic market pricing of the economic growth outlook as well as uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of impending slowdown in economic and earnings growth will likely keep a ceiling on equity multiples during the next few months."

A key part of the recent market rally has been a massive comeback in large-cap tech stocks and a resurgence in the broader artificial intelligence theme as a whole. Kostin argues that could have more room to run moving forward. 

"AI stocks should regain their momentum as tariff-related volatility diminishes," Kostin wrote. "We expect investors will be attracted to the secular earnings growth profiles of many AI-exposed equities against a backdrop of modest economic growth, especially in light of relatively undemanding current valuations."

NurPhoto via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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28.

Stock market today: S&P 500 wipes out 2025 losses as Nvidia powers tech rally

2025-05-13 13:30:29 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks mostly rose on Tuesday, with tech stocks leading a rally after the latest consumer inflation report revealed easing prices in April amid continued euphoria over the US-China trade truce.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.7%, and is now in the green on the year in a stunning turnaround just more than a month after it had plunged to 2025 lows amid President Trump's whipsawing tariff moves. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) pushed up about 1.8% after entering a new bull market in the prior session. 

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid 0.6%, weighed down by a sharp 18% fall in shares of key component UnitedHealth (UNH).

Nvidia (NVDA) powered the tech-led rally as a flurry of trade news bolstered prospects for the AI chip giant. The company once again crossed a $3 trillion market cap during Tuesday's trading session as shares added almost 6%. Other "Magnificent 7" megacaps also continued surging, with Tesla (TSLA) up about 5% and Meta (META) up almost 3%. 

April's Consumer Price Index, released on Tuesday morning, showed the slowest annual rate of inflation since 2021, with no signs of immediate price hikes after back-and-forth implementation of Trump's tariffs throughout the month.

While the brunt of the tariffs' impact likely won't be seen for some time, bond traders are watching the consumer inflation print for clues to the Federal Reserve's path for interest rates. Markets are pricing in the first 0.25% rate cut in September, compared with previous expectations for June. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) jumped on Tuesday, hitting its highest levels in over a month around 4.5%.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Major companies are still bracing for a tariff bruising. Honda (HMC, 7267.T) on Tuesday became the latest automaker to put out a warning, saying it expects a $3 billion hit to full-year profit from Trump's new auto duties. 

Elsewhere in corporates, UnitedHealth suspended its 2025 guidance as its CEO, Andrew Witty, stepped down immediately in a surprise move.

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29.

Stock market today: Dow jumps 1,100 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq surge after US-China tariff rollback triggers buying spree

2025-05-12 20:00:36 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks surged to close near the highs of the session on Monday after a US-China deal to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs offered relief to markets worried about a trade war.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) soared nearly 3.3% to its highest level since March 3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 2.8%, or more than 1,100 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led gains, rocketing up 4.3%.

Wall Street notched a banner day after the US and China put tariffs on pause for 90 days, as the scope of the tariff reductions surprised investors. The US is dropping its duties on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China is lowering its 125% tariff on US goods to 10%.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Investors jumped into shares of Big Tech megacaps bruised by trade war worries. AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) popped more than 5%, with Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) also surged. 

President Trump on Monday signed an executive order aimed at lowering prices on drugs sold in the US, after promising on social media to bring in cuts of at least 59%. The plans could end up raising prices overseas, boosting revenue for pharma companies, a White House official said, per Axios.

Meanwhile, the dollar (DX=F) and US Treasury yields (^TNX) climbed, as oil (CL=F, BZ=F) powered higher to lead a rally in commodities.

Traders will get their first sense of the initial inflationary effects of Trump's tariffs with the release of key inflation data this week. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due Tuesday, followed by retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. 

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30.

Consumer prices rise at slowest annual pace since February 2021

2025-05-12 18:57:47 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures eased on an annual basis in the first month that many of President Trump's tariffs were in effect.

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that consumer prices increased 2.3% over the prior year in April, a slowdown from March's 2.4% and below economists' forecast for 2.4%. This marked the lowest annual increase since February 2021, before a large increase in inflation sparked a Federal Reserve interest rate hiking cycle. 

On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% estimated by economists. Prices fell 0.1% on a monthly basis in March by comparison. A 0.3% rise in the index for shelter accounted for more than half of the all items increase, per the BLS.

Read more: April inflation breakdown: Food, shelter, and medical care pinch consumers' wallets

"There isn't a lot of evidence of tariffs boosting the CPI in April, but this shouldn't be surprising as it takes time," Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote in a note to clients. "The areas where tariffs likely boosted prices in April were in furniture/bedding, appliances, and to a lesser extent toys."

Toy prices increased 0.3% after falling in three of the previous four months. Meanwhile, furniture and bedding prices rose 1.5%. Appliance costs popped 0.8%.

On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in April climbed 0.2% over the prior month, ahead of March's 0.1% rise but below consensus projections for a 0.3% increase. Over the last year, core prices rose 2.8%, unchanged from the prior month and in line with Wall Street's expectations.

The CPI report greets investors less than 24 hours after markets soared on news that the US and China have placed a 90-day pause on a wide swath of tariffs between the two countries. 

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The report covers the month in which President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement prompted concern among investors, businesses, and consumers over higher prices for goods. Trump quickly pivoted a week after the initial move, announcing a 90-day pause on the tariffs for all countries except for China. He kept baseline 10% duties in place for all countries.

"It is questionable whether or not today’s CPI print really moves the needle after the rollercoaster ride of the past month," Principal Asset Management chief global strategist Seema Shah wrote in a note following the release. "After all, not only is the April CPI report unlikely to have fully captured the tariff impact post-Liberation Day, but inflation numbers will now be further whipsawed by the US/China trade truce announcement."

Chicago Tribune via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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31.

Wall Street's worst fears over Trump's trade war just faded

2025-05-12 15:46:42 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Stocks roared on Monday as investors' worst fears over an escalating trade war between the US and China eased.

Truist co-CIO Keith Lerner described Monday's stock rally as the market reacting to a temporary truce between the two countries that was simply "better than expectations." 

"Markets are all about expectations," Lerner said. "And relative to expectations, the short-term news is better. And it's at a time when the market, I would say more broadly, the Street, is not positioned for this outcome."

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) soared 3.3% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) surged more than 2.8%, or around 1,100 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led gains, rocketing 4.3%.

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

A weekend of negotiations between the US and China resulted in a 90-day pause on the bulk of tariffs both nations had placed on each other's goods. The move means a temporary drop in the US tariff rate on Chinese products from as high as 145% to 30%. The reprieve also slashes China's retaliatory duties on the US goods from 125% to 10%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made clear through a series of interviews on Monday that "neither side wants a decoupling" of trade between the two nations. Bessent also added that the 90-day pause could be extended further, "as long as there is good-faith effort, engagement, and constructive dialogue, then we will keep moving forward."

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The news sent stocks ripping higher as many on Wall Street had been noting for several weeks that news on tariff agreements between the US and other countries remains a key market catalyst. 

"This was sort of the ultimate positive catalyst in terms of getting a pretty meaningful pause with a pretty meaningful trade partner," Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon told Yahoo Finance.

TIMOTHY A. CLARY via Getty Images

Recent laggards amid the massive drawdown seen leading into and after President Trump's initial April 2 tariff announcement were among the market leaders on Monday. The small-cap Russell 2000 index (^RUT) was up about 3.4%.

Moves like this will be key to watch moving forward to see if the market rebound has further legs, Gordon said.

"The stage that we're at right now, after you go through that big washdown and you start to see some breadth thrust, this is really the time that you need to see those laggards pick up for that bull market to look a lot more sustainable," Gordon said.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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32.

New York Fed Uplifts Q2 GDP to 2.42%

2025-05-12 12:29:34 by Moz Farooque from GuruFocus.com

The New York Fed's nowcast for Q2 GDP rose to 2.42%, up from 2.34% last week, offering a welcome backdrop as major equity ETFs claw back losses.

The Fed's Nowcast modelwhich factors in retail sales, industrial production and labor?market indicatorswas revised higher on positive trade data, though it remains below April's peak of 2.72%. The upgrade suggests the U.S. economy is maintaining momentum despite mixed signals elsewhere.

Equity markets could potentially respond favorably: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has outpaced the index over one week (0.85% vs. 0.80%) and one month (13.45% vs. 13.36%), trimming its year-to-date drawdown to 3.90% compared with the S&P 500's 3.96%. Meanwhile, Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) led tech-heavy gains with a 1.09% one-week return and 17.03% over the past month, narrowing its YTD decline to 4.75% versus 3.94% for the benchmark.

Why It Matters: A stronger GDP outlook paired with a rebound in SPY and QQQ suggests investors may regain confidence in a soft-landing scenario, supporting further equity gains.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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33.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq end volatile week lower as Wall Street braces for US-China talks

2025-05-09 20:00:19 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks wobbled on Friday after President Trump hinted more trade deals are coming and raised the possibility of a cut to US tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of talks between the two countries this weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) erased opening gains to drop 0.3%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed below the flatline, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was little changed. 

All three major averages ended the week down less than 0.5%.

Markets are focused on the US-China trade talks in Geneva this weekend, following a rally in stocks on Thursday as Trump unveiled a US-UK trade pact. As reports flagged a potential US cut to sky-high tariffs on Chinese imports, Trump said an 80% rate "seems right" in a post to Truth Social on Friday.

The president this week has maintained an optimistic tone about the talks with China, saying they would be "substantive." 

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Hopes for a deescalation in tariff tensions got a further boost on Friday as Trump said, "Many Trade Deals in the hopper, all good (GREAT!) ones" in a later social media post.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was rallying against the dollar amid the optimism, trading above $102,000 after topping $104,000 overnight.

On the earnings front, Pinterest (PINS) stock surged following an upbeat quarterly revenue outlook that bolstered hopes that ad spending on the social media platform will stay strong in the face of tariff risks to the economy. But Expedia (EXPE) slid after the online booking platform missed revenue estimates amid flagging US demand.

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34.

QQQ Gains $1.7B as Fed Acknowledges Economic Concerns

2025-05-08 22:15:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

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35.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rally on trade optimism as Trump says 'buy stock now'

2025-05-08 20:00:55 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks climbed on Thursday after President Trump unveiled a US-UK trade deal and signaled optimism for upcoming China talks, boosting spirits that the tide in the global trade war has turned. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose roughly 1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed around 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also rose 0.6%, or about 250 points.

Stocks came down from bigger highs in the middle of the session, but Wall Street rose for a second day in a row following Wednesday's rally as Trump said a trade deal with the UK would lead to billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports. Trump touted the deal as just the start, saying the trade talks and a tax bill moving through Congress make it a great time to invest in the US stock market.

"You better go out and buy stock now," he said.

A 10% tariff on imports from the UK remains, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, but the US will slash tariffs on auto and steel imports.

Trump indicated the rest of the US's trading partners want to make a deal, signaling Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be traveling to Switzerland soon to speak with Chinese officials. 

When asked if he would consider lowering the current tariffs on imports from China if the negotiations go well, he said: "We'll see. Right now, you can't get any higher. It's at 145%, so we know it's coming down."

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Meanwhile, markets are digesting the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to hold interest rates steady. Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank will take a "wait-and-see" approach to policy, as he underlined the economic uncertainty and market volatility created by Trump's tariff push. Trump again attacked Powell on Thursday, calling him a "fool" who "doesn't have a clue." 

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36.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as Fed holds rates steady, Powell sticks to 'wait and see'

2025-05-07 20:05:23 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks closed Wednesday higher as investors assessed prospects for planned US-China trade talks and digested the Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates steady at its May meeting.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) ticked up 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popped about 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up 0.7%, or nearly 300 points. A sharp 7% drop in Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) shares weighed on the Nasdaq, while a 10% rise in Disney (DIS) stock powered the Dow higher.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the third straight meeting. The central bank also noted in its statement that "the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation had risen." 

Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank need not be in a "hurry" to cut interest rates and could "wait and see" the impacts of tariffs to the economy.

"My gut tells me that uncertainty about the path of the economy is extremely elevated and that the downside risks have increased," he said. 

He added: "There are cases in which it would be appropriate for us to cut rates this year, there are cases in which it wouldn’t. We just don’t know."

Markets had cautiously welcomed news on Tuesday that top US and Chinese officials will meet this weekend for the first major trade talks between the two since President Trump hiked tariffs on Chinese imports to 145% in April.

Faith in the idea that the US and China would eventually get around the table to seal an agreement has helped keep stocks afloat in recent weeks. But signs are that the Geneva meeting won't bring a big trade deal.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

Trump on Wednesday was asked during a press conference if he would lower tariffs on China to help foster more productive negotiations. He responded bluntly, "no."

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37.

Strong labor market data doesn't mean the coast is clear for the US economy

2025-05-07 12:49:02 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The April jobs report showed the US labor market isn't rapidly cooling. But some on Wall Street still think an economic slowdown is likely underway, even if it's not showing up in mass layoffs or a large pickup in the unemployment rate.

"Unless there's some quick reversal on tariffs, the amount of disruption we're seeing there, along with every other force being imposed on the economy right now, probably will drag us under in terms of putting us into recession," JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly told Yahoo Finance.

On May 2, the latest labor report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the US economy added 177,000 jobs in April, well above the expectations for 138,000, while the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%. Economists largely agreed that the headline numbers in April were solid. But within the details of various data points, Kelly and others already see signs of slowing in the economy.

For one, hiring remains low. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed the hiring rate ended March at 3.4%. When excluding the pandemic, the hiring rate is hovering near its lowest levels of the past decade, putting the labor market on thin ice to avoid a slowdown.

"If enough people just decide to hesitate a little bit about hiring, that could put you in the soup anyway," Kelly said. "We haven't seen, and you don't need, a big increase in layoffs. You just need a hesitation to hire that gets you into real trouble."

Corporate layoff announcements have trickled in over the past month, with UPS (UPS) cutting 20,000 jobs among them. But broad government layoff data has only shown a modest increase in recent weeks, leaving economists to search for other signs of cooling in the labor market.

Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta, who also has projected the US economy will enter recession, highlighted that even in a strong April labor report, there were still signs of softness. For instance, average hourly wages increased 0.2% in April compared to the month prior, in line with the lowest monthly increase seen since 2023. 

Dutta points out that the wage increases for private industries are now below the fed funds rate, a phenomenon not often seen outside of recessions.

"Historically, that is never a good place to be," Dutta wrote in a note to clients, noting that slowing wage growth is one sign that the labor market is already cooling and the Fed should be cutting interest rates soon to aid the slowing economy. 

The Fed's next monetary policy decision is set for Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady. 

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

In typical cycles, the unemployment rate and layoffs usually operate with a lag. First, some shock usually slows business activity, eventually hitting company profits before firms trim headcounts in order to preserve those profits. 

So at the current moment, economists are looking for signs that economic activity is already slowing as the reality of President Trump's tariffs sets in. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas is watching the Port of Los Angeles, where incoming shipments are expected to fall by 35% in May and keep declining in the coming weeks.

To be sure, Trump's tariff policies remain a wild card. On Tuesday, the White House announced that US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are set to meet with the Chinese delegation this weekend in Switzerland. Still, economists remain concerned about the impact tariffs could have on economic activity if they aren't significantly lowered in the coming weeks.

"The recession will start on the docks of Los Angeles," Brusuelas wrote. "It will be a product of a rational response by producers, wholesalers and retailers to the uncertainty created by policy makers."

Read more: 7 ways to recession-proof your savings

If the projection comes true, tariffs will increase the cost of goods, prompting fewer orders. Then, "declining real incomes and increasing unemployment will follow," Brusuelas wrote, and the slowdown some think is already emerging will become increasingly apparent. 

Genaro Molina via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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38.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide ahead of Fed decision as tariff fears return

2025-05-06 20:01:45 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks fell on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting. Investors are watching closely to see how President Trump's tariffs could influence the Fed’s stance on interest rates and the broader economic outlook.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid about 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped roughly 1%, or almost 400 points, leading the declines. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also fell 0.9%.

The countdown is on for the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday as policymakers begin their two-day meeting. Although the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, Wall Street will listen closely to Chair Jerome Powell's comments on how the economy is holding up. Focus is on the Fed's evaluation of the fallout from Trump's trade offensive, which has yet to fully show up in economic data.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

The president's remarks over the weekend dimmed hopes of tariff relief, helping drive a retreat by the S&P 500 on Monday from its longest winning streak in 20 years. Investors weighed mixed signals from Trump and his top officials on Tuesday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some trade deals could be announced as soon as this week, as a report said the US and UK moved close to a deal. Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House, where the two leaders had an at-times terse exchange over Trump's desire to make Canada the 51st US state.

Meanwhile, Ford (F) shares climbed back from earlier losses as investors digested its strong earnings report, which was muddied by tariff uncertainties. Barbie maker Mattel (MAT) added to the storm clouds, withdrawing its guidance and saying it would hike prices for some products. Trump also hinted late Monday that tariffs on pharmaceutical imports were on the way, dragging on Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), and others.

Highlights on the earnings docket on Tuesday include chipmaker AMD (AMD), server maker Super Micro (SMCI), and electric vehicle company Rivian (RIVN).

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39.

Stocks' best winning streak since 2004 hasn't 'alleviated' Wall Street's worries

2025-05-06 08:00:27 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has recouped all of its "Liberation Day" losses with help from the longest winning streak for the benchmark index since 2004. 

But now, with the S&P 500 up about 14% from its April 8 low, Wall Street strategists aren't confident that a smooth path higher for the index will continue.

"For now, fundamental and macro concerns are pushed out but not alleviated," Citi equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients. 

To Chronert's point, there have been incremental signs that the US is nearing trade deals in recent weeks, but none have actually been announced. This leaves Trump's tariffs as a consistent variable in the investing landscape. 

Another key concern is the risk of recession. While the April jobs report released Friday showed the US labor market remains on solid footing, other indicators have continued to flash signs of a cooling jobs environment. This comes amid a wave of other worse-than-expected economic data. 

Read more: What is a recession, and how does it impact you?

The confluence of issues that remain unsolved is prompting strategists to recite a familiar refrain over the past month: Things look OK right now, but there is significant concern about what happens next.

"While the market rebound is welcome, it’s no reason for complacency," JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly said. "Despite Friday's jobs numbers, the economy is losing momentum and will, more likely than not, slip into recession without real progress on the trade front or near-term fiscal stimulus. More importantly, if, in the long run, Washington policies result in greater trade barriers, less immigration and even larger budget deficits, then any economic recovery could be anemic, with long-term real GDP growth slipping to well below 2%."

There have been some signs of strength in the fundamentals during the rally. With 72% of S&P 500 companies done reporting earnings for the first quarter, the index is pacing for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.8%, above the 7.2% analysts expected on March 31, per FactSet data. 

RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Monday that companies that are beating earnings-per-share forecasts are seeing larger-than-normal upside moves in their stocks, suggesting "earnings dynamics" have played a role in the rally along with optimism around US trade deals.

"This [earnings] phenomenon does appear to be losing some intensity since mid-April, suggesting to us that the US equity market may soon demand another catalyst to keep the recovery going," Calvasina wrote. 

Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson agrees with Calvasina about earnings and the trade negotiations driving the recent move higher in the S&P 500. But for the rally to extend and the S&P 500 to head toward its previous all-time high near 6,100, Wilson believes "a trade deal with China would need to be reached in the next couple of weeks that reinforces confidence among businesses that trade de-escalation is here to stay and that supply chains will see limited disruption." 

And beyond a trade deal, Wilson believes investors will likely also want to hear the Federal Reserve is once again leaning toward cutting interest rates. 

Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments

"While a deal with China that materially reduces the tariff rate would be very important for corporate confidence/EPS revisions, the monetary policy path is also an important variable for equity returns," Wilson wrote. "It's worth noting that our economists don't see the Fed cutting rates this year (i.e., this is a tough needle to thread)." 

The Fed's next monetary policy decision will be announced on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET. The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, and markets are currently pricing in just a 28% chance the Fed cuts rates at its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

REUTERS / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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40.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 snap historic run of gains as tariff risks return, Fed decision looms

2025-05-05 20:20:01 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks retreated from a historic run of gains on Monday as President Trump's new tariff threat revived trade war worries in the wait for a Federal Reserve policy decision.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped roughly 0.6%, snapping its longest winning streak in over 20 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped almost 0.3%, also notching its first losing session in the last 10 tries. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped nearly 0.8%.

The US dollar (DX=F) also lost ground as Wall Street gauges whether recent confidence that Trump has moved to a dealmaking phase is misplaced.

Investors had been riding a wave of optimism, fueled largely by early indications that the US and China are inching toward the negotiating table for discussions on tariffs. Chinese officials have signaled reopening trade talks with Washington, though no start to negotiations appears imminent.

But Trump said over the weekend that he has no plans to speak to his Chinese counterpart, President Xi, this week, even as he said he wants a "fair deal" with the country.

In a social media post on Sunday, Trump opened a new front in his trade war, saying movies produced outside the US will face a 100% tariff. He said efforts to start the process will start immediately, though he offered little detail on the duties.

Looking ahead, Wall Street’s attention turns to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that kicks off on Tuesday. The Fed is expected to hold steady with current rates, even with Trump amping up pressure on its chair, Jerome Powell, in recent weeks.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A) stock dropped roughly 5% after the conglomerate's board approved longtime CEO Warren Buffett's appointment of Greg Abel as his successor starting in 2026. 

On the earnings front, auto maker Ford (F) beat first quarter earnings estimates but pulled its guidance after the bell due to tariffs, while data software firm Palantir (PLTR) raised its revenue guidance citing expanding sales.

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41.

JEPQ Joins the Big Leagues as Options Income ETFs Surge

2025-05-05 12:00:00 by Sumit Roy from etf.com

The JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) just cracked the top 10 ETF inflows list, pulling in $5.7 billion in new money year to date. Its sister fund, the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), has added another $3.5 billion over the same period.

That’s no small feat. 

JEPQ & JEPI Income Strategies

Just three years after launching, JEPQ now manages more than $24 billion in assets. JEPI, which launched in 2020, has ballooned to nearly $39 billion. Together, the two anchor a rapidly growing category of exchange-traded funds using options overlay strategies to generate income.

These strategies typically involve selling call options on top of a portfolio of stocks, a tactic known as covered call writing. In exchange for giving up some upside, the funds collect option premiums that can be distributed to investors as income.

JEPI takes a slightly more complex approach, using equity-linked notes (ELNs) to replicate a covered call strategy on the S&P 500. ELNs are debt instruments whose returns are tied to the performance of an underlying strategy; in this case, an S&P 500 covered call approach. JEPI allocates up to 20% of its portfolio to ELNs, while the rest is invested in a basket of low-volatility, value-oriented U.S. stocks. ESG criteria may also play a role in stock selection.

This hybrid approach has delivered stronger returns than more mechanical strategies like the one used by the Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD). Since launching in 2020, JEPI has returned approximately 70%, compared to 56% for XYLD over the same period. For comparison, JEPI’s performance has been in line with the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV) but trails the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which gained 107% in that timeframe.

Related: See our deep data dive JEPI vs JEPQ ETF comparison.

Lower Volatility, Higher Yields

JEPI has delivered on its low-volatility promise, with a standard deviation of around 11.5% over the past year—the lowest among the ETFs mentioned.

JEPQ applies the same concept to a different corner of the market, drawing most of its holdings from the Nasdaq-100. It also uses ELNs to replicate a Nasdaq-based covered call strategy, distributing the income monthly. Like JEPI, it aims to offer high yield and reduced volatility relative to its benchmark.

So far, the strategy has worked. Since its 2022 launch, JEPQ has returned 44%, more than double the 20% return of the Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD). Still, it lags the 57% gain for the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 without any options overlay.

In terms of volatility, JEPQ lands somewhere in the middle: It posted a 17.8% standard deviation over the past year, compared to 22.8% for QQQ and 16.5% for QYLD.

All in all, JEPI and JEPQ have executed their options strategies effectively—delivering on their promises of income and reduced volatility—but, as expected with covered call approaches, they've also left meaningful upside on the table in a rising market.

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42.

The Best Technology ETF to Invest $2,000 In Right Now

2025-05-04 09:04:00 by Neil Patel, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Key Points

• A heavy focus on tech-driven enterprises has worked wonders for this popular ETF that has crushed the S&P 500 in the past decade.

• A low expense ratio means that investors keep more of their money over time.

• Recent market turmoil, driven by economic uncertainty, is providing investors with a buy-the-dip opportunity.

If investors want broad access to the stock market in their portfolios, they usually direct their attention to the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC). The popular benchmark is a gauge to measure the performance of U.S. equities at large. And in the past decade, it has generated a total return of 213% (as of April 28). Not too shabby.

But what if you want greater exposure to a particular industry or theme, such as technology? There are specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for that. In fact, one booming ETF has crushed the S&P 500 in the last 10 years. 

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

Here's a look at the best tech ETF to invest $2,000 in right now.

Betting on powerful secular trends

The internet has and will continue to shape our economy and society. With this in mind, it makes sense why investors might want to skew their portfolios more to technology businesses.

Instead of the S&P 500, it's time to learn more about the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ). This ETF tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100, which consists of the largest 100 nonfinancial companies that trade on the namesake stock exchange.

The top 10 stocks represent a sizable 49% of the portfolio. Unsurprisingly, the "Magnificent Seven" stocks have a monumental impact on the ETF's performance. So, if investors aren't bullish on these businesses and the trends that power them, like digital advertising, digital payments, cloud computing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence (AI), then it might be a good idea to think twice.

However, if you're optimistic about these tailwinds looking toward the future, the Invesco QQQ Trust is a smart choice. The added benefit is that there's instant diversification, eliminating the need to successfully pick individual stocks.

The Invesco QQQ Trust currently has $298 billion in assets under management. This figure is worth pointing out because it highlights the huge scale of the ETF, showcasing how much capital believes in this strategy. In other words, investors aren't wasting time considering an esoteric fund that has minimal assets or public interest.

Strong returns at a low price

Had you invested $2,000 in the Invesco QQQ Trust exactly 10 years ago, you'd have nearly $9,300 today. This translates to a wonderful 16.6% annualized gain. Ongoing success of the tech sector overall, which is becoming a more pronounced driver of economic growth, certainly had an impact on the return profile of this ETF.

For such an impressive gain, you'd be forgiven for assuming that the fees would be very high. This couldn't be further from the truth.

The Invesco QQQ Trust carries just a 0.2% expense ratio. That hypothetical $2,000 invest would only see $4 go to fees on a yearly basis. This means you get to keep more of your money over time instead of seeing it drained from your account.

What can investors expect?

While the Invesco QQQ Trust's past performance is exceptional, investors shouldn't necessarily expect similar gains in the future. Of course, it could happen. But it's a good idea to set the right expectations.

What investors should really care about is putting money to work now, especially because the Invesco QQQ Trust is trading 12% below its all-time record. There are worries that President Trump's radical trade policies will lead to economic turmoil in the not-too-distant future. And this has investors taking a cautious approach.

But the stock market has always recovered from bear markets and corrections to ultimately reach new highs. Choosing to invest $2,000 right now in the Invesco QQQ Trust will likely prove to be a very lucrative move for your portfolio.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,685!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $701,781!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 906% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 164% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 28, 2025

Neil Patel has positions in Invesco QQQ Trust. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The Best Technology ETF to Invest $2,000 In Right Now was originally published by The Motley Fool

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43.

April jobs report shows US labor market remained resilient in wake of 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement

2025-05-02 12:32:04 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

The April jobs report showed the US labor market remained resilient in the weeks after President Trump's "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariff announcements shook markets. 

The US economy added 177,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, more than the 138,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. 

Average hourly earnings in April rose 0.2% over last month and 3.8% over the prior year. Economists expected wages to rise 0.3% over last month and 3.9% over the prior year. 

US stocks traded higher following the report, the latest sigh of relief from investors that the worst-case economic scenarios from Trump's sweeping tariff plans may be avoided. Data from the CME Group showed the Federal Reserve remains unlikely to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting, with this jobs reading taking pressure off the central bank to support a deterioration in the economic outlook. 

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

By industry, Friday's report showed a notable jump in hiring in the transportation and warehousing sector, which saw 29,000 jobs created, up from a more modest 2,700 in March.

Federal government employment, which has been closely watched given the Trump administration's DOGE initiatives, fell by 9,000. Total government employment, which includes state and local hiring, rose by 10,000 last month. 

The healthcare industry added 51,000 jobs last month, continuing a stretch as a reliable growth industry. Transportation and warehousing added 29,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality added 24,000.

Job gains in March were revised down on Friday to show the US economy added 185,000 jobs. That report initially suggested job gains tallied 228,000 last month. Over the past year, monthly job gains have averaged 152,000. 

Friday's report is the most notable piece of economic data released since President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2. But Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, argued in a note Friday that the report "provides a snapshot of labor demand in the run-up to the April 2 tariff announcements, rather than an early assessment of their impact." 

"People count towards payrolls as long as they did any work in their employer's pay period which includes the 12th of the month," Tombs added. 

"Nearly three-quarters of employees are paid either biweekly, semimonthly or monthly, so they would still count on April payrolls even if employers moved quickly to cut jobs after the April 2 tariff announcements. What's more, we already know from the low level of initial jobless claims in recent weeks that employers have not rushed to fire staff."

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

On Thursday, data from the Department of Labor revealed weekly claims for unemployment benefits hit their highest level in two months during the final full week of April, and the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021. Private payroll data from ADP showed 62,000 private sector jobs were created in April, the fewest since July.

Earlier this week, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed economic growth contracted during the first quarter for the first time in three years. A surge in imports ahead of the levies weighed on growth in the quarter. 

Tariffs have also negatively impacted activity in the manufacturing sector and weighed on various consumer sentiment surveys.

USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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44.

Microsoft, Meta Earnings Ignite Rally in Big Tech ETFs

2025-05-01 22:15:00 by Sumit Roy from etf.com

Big tech ETFs jumped on Tuesday after Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Meta Platforms Inc. (META) delivered strong earnings and reiterated their bullish outlooks for artificial intelligence.

Big Tech Earnings

Microsoft reported fiscal third-quarter earnings per share of $3.46, beating analyst estimates of $3.21. Revenue came in at $70.1 billion, ahead of the expected $68.5 billion. Growth was broad-based, with total sales rising 15% year over year on a constant currency basis.

The company’s cloud and AI businesses stood out. Azure revenue surged 35%, up from 31% in the prior quarter, with AI accounting for 16 percentage points of that growth. Demand is running so hot that Microsoft now expects to face AI capacity constraints beyond June, according to CFO Amy Hood.

Meta also topped expectations, reporting first-quarter EPS of $6.43 versus estimates of $5.25 and revenue of $42.3 billion versus $41.4 billion expected. That marks a 19% increase in sales year over year on a constant currency basis.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg said nearly a billion people now use Meta AI across the company’s suite of apps. “Our focus for this year is deepening the experience and making Meta AI the leading personal AI,” he said.

Meta lifted its full-year capital expenditures guidance to a midpoint of $68 billion, up from $62.5 billion previously, highlighting the scale of its AI infrastructure investments. The company also reassured investors by guiding second-quarter revenue in line with expectations, easing concerns that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war might dampen growth.

NVDA, QQQ Boosted

Together, Microsoft and Meta’s strong results and AI-fueled commentary sparked gains across the broader tech landscape. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), which benefits from rising AI infrastructure demand, was among the notable winners.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which counts Microsoft (8.1% weighting), Nvidia (7.4%) and Meta (3.3%) among its top holdings, climbed about 2% as of midday Tuesday. The ETF has rallied 16.5% since its April lows and is now just 10% below its all-time highs set earlier this year.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) (8.9% of QQQ) and Amazon.com Inc. (5.4%) are set to report their earnings after the bell today, potentially adding more fuel to the tech rally.

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45.

Stock market today: Nasdaq surges as AI trade reignites amid Big Tech earnings, Dow, S&P 500 rise for 8th day

2025-05-01 20:00:51 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

The Nasdaq led US stocks higher on Thursday as strong earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) eased fears about Big Tech's prospects amid President Trump's tariff upheaval.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose around 0.6% to close off the highs of the session, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, paring gains to close up 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added roughly 0.2%, extending its longest winning streak of the year.

Microsoft and Meta both topped Wall Street expectations for quarterly profit late Wednesday, relieving worries that Trump's trade war would hit corporate spending on artificial intelligence and cloud, as well as advertising. The stocks surged, ending up over 7% and 4%, respectively.

Tech giant Apple (AAPL) posted better than expected earnings after the close on strong iPhone sales. Amazon (AMZN) shares declined in after-hours after the cloud and e-commerce company's second quarter operating income came in below Wall Street expectations. 

Both of the "Magnificent Seven" megacaps have found themselves in the crosshairs of Trump's trade offensive. Amazon reassured the White House this week that it won't show the tariff hike in its product prices, while Apple is scrambling to shift iPhone production from China, even as smartphones are exempted from steep duties on imports from there.

Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs

McDonald's (MCD) pointed to the fallout from tariffs for consumers as it posted a first quarter earnings miss and slump in US sales. Americans are "grappling with uncertainty," the fast-food giant's CEO said. Shares fell more than 1%.

More broadly, markets welcomed signs of a thawing in the trade war that has driven fears of an economic slowdown, particularly after data on Wednesday showed US gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter. 

On Thursday, new data showed weekly filings for unemployment claims hit a two-month high at the end of April, while continuing claims hit their highest level since November 2021. The latest signal of labor market weakness sets the stage for Friday's all-important jobs report.

Beijing has reportedly signaled that the US has reached out to China to initiate trade talks, despite the White House's insistence that President Xi must make the first move. At the same time, officials have hinted that the Trump administration is closing in on announcing a first batch of trade deals.

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46.

Manufacturing activity hits 5-month low as Trump tariffs leave businesses in 'state of near paralysis'

2025-05-01 15:27:27 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

US manufacturing activity slid to a five-month low in April as President Trump's tariffs continued to create uncertainty for businesses.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April, below the 49 seen the month prior. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the sector.

The ISM's prices paid index for the sector came in at 69.8, roughly flat compared to the prior month. Meanwhile, new orders increased to a reading of 47.2, above the 45.2 seen in March.

"In April, U.S. manufacturing activity slipped marginally further into contraction after expanding only marginally in February," Institute for Supply Management chair Timothy Fiore said in a press release. "Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, conditions that are not considered positive for economic growth."

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

The ISM release includes comments from survey respondents across various industries. Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients on Thursday that nearly all of the comments "described a state of near paralysis" as businesses struggle to account for the changing tariff policies.

"The tone of these comments suggests that business planning is impossible for the majority of manufacturers, irrespective of their industry specialty," Simons wrote. "Frankly, it is a surprise that the index levels are as high as they are. These comments are consistent with a PMI reading in the 20s or 30s."

In a separate release on Thursday, S&P Global's manufacturing data showed activity held flat at a reading of 50.2 in April. Meanwhile, S&P Global noted that tariff impacts boosted both input and selling costs. 

"It tells me that this process that started with the policy uncertainty and then moved to the markets is now starting to show up in the real data," S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald told Yahoo Finance. "That's kind of the last leg of this transmission." 

Gruenwald added that the "key variable" for the economy moving forward will be whether or not the labor market deteriorates further.

"If you want to differentiate between the slowdown scenario and the recession scenario, it's going to center on the labor market," Gruenwald said. "So if we start to see cracks in the labor market, that's going to take us into the recession scenario. Not there yet, but we're starting to see a little bit of weakness." 

Read more: What is a recession, and how does it impact you?

New data out this week has shown further signs of cooling in the labor market. ADP reported that private payrolls grew by just 62,000 in April, the smallest increase since July 2024. Meanwhile, a separate release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings hit a four-month low at the end of March and are hovering near their lowest level since December 2020.

On Friday, the April jobs report is expected to show 135,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg.

In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / Reuters

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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47.

Continuing jobless claims reach highest level since November 2021, initial claims hit 2-month high

2025-05-01 13:03:27 by Josh Schafer from Yahoo Finance

Weekly claims for unemployment benefits hit their highest level in two months during the final full week of April while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021 as the US labor market continues to show signs of slowing. 

Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 241,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending April 26, up from 223,000 the week prior and well above economists' expectations for 223,000.

Meanwhile, 1.916 million continuing claims were filed, up from 1.833 million the week prior and the highest level seen since November 2021. Economists see an increase in continuing claims as a sign that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs. 

The data comes as investors are closely watching for any signs of weakening in the US labor market as President Trump's tariffs are expected to weigh on the economy. While the actual level of initial claims remains below prior periods of economic distress, data out in recent days has shown signs of cooling in the labor market. 

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

On Wednesday, data from ADP showed private payrolls grew by just 62,000 in April, far fewer than the 115,000 expected by economists and below the 147,000 new jobs added in March. This marked the smallest increase in private payrolls since July 2024.

"Unease is the word of the day," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement on Wednesday. "Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment."

Meanwhile, data released from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed 7.19 million jobs were open at the end of March, a decrease from the 7.48 million seen in February. Job openings in March hit their lowest level since September 2024 and were near levels not seen since December 2020. 

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell to 1.02% in March, the lowest since the post-pandemic labor market recovery began. This means there is now roughly one unemployed worker for each open job in the economy. During the post-pandemic recovery in 2022, this ratio was closer to 2:1.

The slew of labor market data comes ahead of the government's monthly jobs report, which is slated for release on Friday.

The April jobs report is expected to show 135,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. 

In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

PATRICK T. FALLON via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

---

48.

Want Exposure to the AI Revolution? This Brilliant Tech ETF Is All You Need.

2025-05-01 11:00:00 by George Budwell, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Key Points

• The Invesco QQQ Trust provides concentrated exposure to technology leaders spearheading the artificial intelligence revolution.

• Despite analyst projections of market-beating returns for 2025, recent trade tensions have weighed on the fund this year, creating a compelling buying opportunity.

The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution promises to transform virtually every aspect of our economy. According to leading research firms, the economic impact could reach trillions of dollars annually as AI technologies boost productivity across industries. For investors seeking to capitalize on this technological transformation, selecting the right investment vehicle is crucial.

Among the surfeit of available options, one exchange-traded fund (ETF) stands out as a particularly efficient way to gain exposure to this revolution: the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100 index. Read on to find out more about this incredible tech ETF.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

An AI powerhouse

While Wall Street analysts forecast this technology-focused ETF to deliver returns exceeding 15% for 2025, the Invesco QQQ Trust has, instead, declined 7.4% four months into the year, largely due to President Donald Trump's escalating trade war. This substantial pullback potentially presents a compelling entry point for investors with long-term perspectives.

The Invesco QQQ Trust's particular appeal for AI exposure lies in its concentrated holdings of technology leaders. The fund provides investors with direct stakes in companies at the forefront of developing and deploying advanced AI technologies across multiple sectors, positioning it uniquely within the investment landscape to capture the AI revolution's parabolic growth potential.

Performance that stands out

This fund's exceptional long-term track record illustrates the power of its laser focus on high-tech. Over the past 10 years, it has generated cumulative returns of approximately 370%. By comparison, the S&P 500's impressive 215% cumulative gain over the same period, while historically strong, significantly trails the Invesco QQQ's breathtaking performance.

Perhaps best of all, this market-beating performance comes with a reasonable expense ratio of 0.20%, so investors pay just $20 annually per $10,000 invested. Though the fund charges higher fees than most basic S&P 500 index funds, this cost is justified, given its focused exposure to high-growth technology companies positioned to deliver outsized returns for years to come -- potentially.

AI titans dominate the holdings

The fund offers investors concentrated exposure to the AI revolution through its significant holdings in technology leaders. Microsoft (7.8% of the fund) has become a frontrunner in enterprise AI following its multibillion-dollar investment in OpenAI. This strategic partnership has transformed Microsoft's product ecosystem, with AI capabilities now embedded throughout its cloud services and productivity applications, positioning the company to capture substantial value from the enterprise AI adoption wave.

Nvidia (7.4%) has emerged as perhaps the most critical infrastructure provider for the AI revolution. The company's specialized graphics processing units (GPUs) have become the industry standard for training and deploying sophisticated AI models, creating unprecedented demand from technology companies worldwide and driving exceptional revenue growth for this key fund holding.

Alphabet (2.4%) leverages AI to strengthen its core search business while exploring breakthrough applications across diverse domains. The company's DeepMind division has achieved landmark AI accomplishments in scientific research, while Google Cloud continues expanding its AI offerings for enterprise customers. Through these three companies alone, representing over 17% of its holdings, the fund provides investors with significant exposure to the bedrock of the AI revolution.

A single-ticket ride to the AI revolution

For investors seeking substantial exposure to the AI transformation without selecting individual winners, the Invesco Trust offers an elegant solution. Rather than betting on specific AI applications, investors gain access to the entire ecosystem -- from chip designers and cloud infrastructure providers to companies implementing AI solutions at scale.

As a result, the recent market pullback presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors. While current trade tensions may create volatility, the advancement of AI continues uninterrupted. As AI transforms industries from healthcare and finance to transportation and entertainment, companies leading this revolution will likely strengthen their competitive advantages further, and best of all, fatten their margins through efficiency gains.

With concentrated exposure to technology innovators, proven long-term performance, and reasonable fees, this Nasdaq-100 tracking fund represents one of the most efficient vehicles for investors seeking to participate in the next phase of the digital revolution.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $607,048!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $668,193!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 880% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 161% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 28, 2025

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. George Budwell has positions in Microsoft and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Want Exposure to the AI Revolution? This Brilliant Tech ETF Is All You Need. was originally published by The Motley Fool

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49.

Should You Buy the Invesco QQQ ETF During the Nasdaq Bear Market? Here's What History Says

2025-05-01 09:31:00 by Anthony Di Pizio, The Motley Fool from Motley Fool

Key Points

• The Nasdaq-100 technology index hosts many of America's largest companies.

• The index is in the throes of a bear market after plunging by as much as 23% from its all-time high amid the growing economic uncertainty.

• History suggests this could be a great time to buy the Nasdaq-100, and the Invesco QQQ Trust provides investors with a simple way to do so.

The Nasdaq-100 is home to 100 of the largest nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, including each of the "Magnificent Seven," which have a combined value of $15 trillion. In other words, it's a great proxy for the performance of the technology and technology-adjacent industries.

The Nasdaq-100 was down by as much as 23% from its record high in April, placing the index in a technical bear market. Investors have flocked to the safety of cash amid growing economic and political uncertainty, triggered by the tariffs President Donald Trump recently enacted on imported products from America's trading partners. However, if history is any guide, this might actually be a great time to buy the index.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100 by maintaining an identical portfolio of stocks, so it offers investors a simple way to own the entire index.

The Magnificent Seven could lead the Nasdaq out of its slump

The Magnificent Seven is a group of seven of the largest stocks in the U.S. Wall Street analysts gave them the nickname in 2023 not just for their size, but also because they have consistently led the broader market higher over the last few years. They represent a whopping 41.3% of the total value of the Invesco QQQ Trust (and the Nasdaq-100), so they have a massive influence over its performance:

Stock	Invesco ETF Portfolio Weighting
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)	8.76%
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)	8.12%
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)	7.55%
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)	5.58%
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)(NASDAQ: GOOG)	5.14%
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)	3.34%
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)	2.89%

Data source: Invesco. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of April 25, 2025, and are subject to change.

The Magnificent Seven stocks are down by an average of 15% this year amid the broader market sell-off, led by Tesla, which has declined 29% on the back of soft demand for the company's electric vehicles. But the downside for the rest of this group might be short-lived given their earnings power. Alphabet, for example, just delivered a much stronger set of financial results than Wall Street expected in the first quarter of 2025, with its net income (profit) rocketing higher by 46% year over year.

Looking beyond the recent quarter, artificial intelligence (AI) could be a long-term tailwind for Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft because of their growing portfolio of AI services that they sell via their cloud platforms. They offer industry-leading data center infrastructure and a selection of ready-made large language models (LLMs), which are two of the main ingredients developers need to create AI software.

In fact, each of them is experiencing more demand for computing capacity than they can supply, which is a big tailwind for another member of the Magnificent Seven: Nvidia. The company makes the world's most advanced chips for processing AI workloads, and its data center revenue surged by 142% to $115.2 billion during its fiscal year 2025 (ended Jan. 26). The result contributed to a record $2.99 in earnings per share, and following the recent dip in its stock, Nvidia is now trading at a bargain valuation relative to its 10-year average.

But the Invesco QQQ Trust isn't entirely about the Magnificent Seven. In its list of top-20 holdings, investors will also find streaming giant Netflix, retail powerhouse Costco Wholesale, telecommunications provider T-Mobile, and AI software dynamo Palantir Technologies.

Why now might be a great time to buy this Invesco ETF

This Invesco ETF has weathered no less than five other bear markets since it was established in 1999, and each of them was triggered by a unique economic shock:

• 2000: The dotcom internet bubble burst, triggering a recession in the U.S. and a three-year slump in the Nasdaq-100.
• 2008: The housing bubble burst, which culminated in the Global Financial Crisis.
• 2018: President Trump enacted a series of tariffs during his first term in office, which sparked fears of a global trade war.
• 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic almost brought the global economy to its knees.
• 2022: Inflation spiked to a 40-year high, which drove a rapid increase in interest rates and a sell-off in higher-risk assets like stocks.

But even after accounting for all of those bear markets -- and every smaller sell-off in between -- this Invesco ETF still delivered a compound annual return of 10% between 1999 and 2024.

The current bear market is unlikely to derail that long-term trend. President Trump has already pared back some of the tariffs he announced on "Liberation Day" on April 2, and his administration says dozens of countries have come to the table to negotiate new trade deals. A similar sequence of events followed Trump's first round of tariffs in 2018, and it paved the way for a whopping 38% gain in the Nasdaq-100 the very next year.

Plus, the tariffs only impact physical imports, which means software, cloud services, and other digital goods aren't facing any penalties (yet). That's great news for companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. Moreover, semiconductors are exempt from the more aggressive portion of Trump's tariffs because the president wants the U.S. to remain a leader in the AI race. That benefits Nvidia, in addition to Broadcom, Advanced Micro Devices, and Micron Technology, which are also in the Nasdaq-100.

As a result, patient investors might want to use the current bear market in the Nasdaq-100 as an opportunity to take a long-term position in the Invesco QQQ Trust.

Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $607,048!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $668,193!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 880% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 161% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 28, 2025

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Costco Wholesale, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Palantir Technologies, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom, Nasdaq, and T-Mobile US and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Should You Buy the Invesco QQQ ETF During the Nasdaq Bear Market? Here's What History Says was originally published by The Motley Fool

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50.

QQQ Captures $1.1B as Dow Jumps on Trade Deal Hopes

2025-04-30 22:00:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com