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Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

8.

Nvidia's $4 trillion milestone caps rise of stock market behemoth

2025-07-09 19:29:40 by Lewis Krauskopf from Reuters

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The stunning rise of Nvidia Corp to become the first publicly traded company valued at $4 trillion underscores the massive importance to the stock market of the AI chipmaker and the technology sector.

Reaching the lofty milestone caps a massive run for Nvidia's stock price, which has soared some 1,350% since October 2022. This year, the chipmaker's shares are up about 22% against a 6% rise for the S&P 500.

The company's market value hit $4 trillion in morning trading on Wednesday, about 13 months after it had first reached the $3 trillion milestone.

Nvidia's stock surge has given it significant weight in key equity indexes and ETFs that are more heavily influenced by companies with the biggest market values.

At around 7.5%, Nvidia has the biggest weight in the S&P 500, which is widely viewed by investors as the benchmark for the U.S. stock market. The stock has an even greater presence in more tech-heavy measures, such as the popular Invesco QQQ Trust ETF and the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index.

Its influence is less significant in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is weighted by stock prices as opposed to market values.

Nvidia may soon have company in the exclusive $4 trillion club. Microsoft's market value was hovering around $3.7 trillion on Wednesday. Apple ranks third at about $3.1 trillion.

Their massive market values also illustrate the hefty influence of tech and tech-related companies. The top seven S&P 500 weights, which also include Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Broadcom, comprise about one-third of the index.

Nvidia's gains also point to the increasing presence of the overall technology sector, which is by far the largest sector in the S&P 500.

The tech sector's market value has grown to one-third of S&P 500 market value, nearly reaching the proportion that the sector hit during the height of the dot com bubble in 2000.

Other tech stocks that have performed well in 2025 include Microsoft, up about 19% this year, Oracle, up 40%, and Palantir, up 88%.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Megan Davies and Bill Berkrot)

9.

Exchange-Traded Funds, US Equities Rise After Midday

2025-07-09 17:09:58 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

Broad Market Indicators

Broad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV rose. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up 0.4%.

US equity indexes rose with the Nasdaq Composite climbing to a record as Nvidia (NVDA) became the first company ever to surpass $4 trillion in market capitalization.

Energy

iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) both lost 0.5%.

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rose 0.1%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) climbed.

SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) rose 0.2% down, while iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) gained 0.3%.

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) was 0.1% lower. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) dropped 0.2%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), rose 0.2%.

Commodities

Crude oil added 0.3%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 0.3%. Natural gas dropped 4.2%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell 4.5%.

Gold rose 0.1% on Comex, and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gained 0.3%. Silver fell 0.2%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was down 0.5%.

Consumer

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) fell 1.1%; Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) was down 0.9%, and the iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) lost 1%.

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was up 0.3%; VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) and SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) were mixed.

Health Care

Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) lost 0.1%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) climbed, and. iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) gained 1.8%.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) gained 0.4%. Vanguard Industrials (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) edged higher.

10.

Pre-Markets Shrug Off Trade Deadline, FOMC Minutes Out Today

2025-07-09 13:56:00 by Mark Vickery from Zacks

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Pre-market futures are climbing from early-morning negative levels to relatively healthy gains an hour before the opening bell. We’ve begun to flatten out off July 3rd highs, and without something of a major catalyst to push market indexes to new levels higher, we might expect this sideways chop to continue.

The Dow is up +133 points at this hour, +0.30%, while the S&P 500 is +14, +0.23%. The Nasdaq is even more muted currently: +43 points, +0.19%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 — after a nice surge yesterday — is down -1 point at present. Bond yields are creeping up slightly on the 10-year, to +4.42%, while the 2-year remains at +3.90%.

We’re also quiet on the economic report front this week, and Q2 earnings season doesn’t really get rolling until the biggest Wall Street banks begin reporting on Tuesday of next week (although we’ll hear from Delta Air Lines DAL and Conagra CAG tomorrow). Therefore, we’re relatively beholden to news reports, social media posts and other remarks related to potential trade deals, as today marks the “official” trade deadline from the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs from April 9th of this year.

What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market

At 2pm ET today, the official minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are expected. Last month’s Fed meeting was fairly uneventful, so we’re not expecting many fireworks from the minutes, but analysts will be paying attention to relatively subtle shifts beneath the headline.

All 12 voting members chose to keep the 4.25-4.50% Fed funds rate intact for the fourth straight meeting. Thinking back to the start of the year, June was the “for sure” time when Fed rates would be forthcoming. Then again, some analysts thought we were going to get as many as 6 or 7 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed still thinks there may be room for 2, but much of the decision-making process would haver to be cleared up first.

In a word, this means “tariffs.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he sees a +0.6% inflation risk from current levels due to tariffs. Clearing the murky outlook, in any case, should go a long way toward prodding the Fed to action; even if, say +30% tariffs are locked in for all U.S. trading partners, at least that would give the Fed — not to mention businesses — parameters from which to operate within.

Wholesale Inventories for the month of June will also be released today, at 10am ET. The previous month, these dipped to negative levels — largely due to pull-forwards ahead of tariff realities in February and March. We expect these numbers to even out over time, but — just like with Powell’s Fed — it will be a lot easier to project with actual trade policy in a firm place.

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11.

Tariff Turbulence and Overbought Tech Mark Post-Holiday Trading

2025-07-09 13:34:00 by Andrew Rocco from Zacks

Wall Steet was mixed to start post-holiday week trading, seesawing on renewed tariff uncertainty and tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. On Tuesday, the major indices traded in a narrow range as trading volumes declined. For example, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) gained .06% while volume fell 23% versus the 50-day average. Meanwhile, some rotation forces have carried over from last week as the once-lagging small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) gaining 0.70% for the session.

Though the bulls remain in control of the market’s direction, there are some short-term caution flags to watch for, including:

The Nasdaq is Overbought: According to the Williams % Range and several other technical metrics, tech stocks are overbought on the short-to-intermediate-term time frames.

Stocks on the Move

‘Ethereum treasury’ stocks likeSharpLink Gaming (SBET) are on the move. Crypto stocks such as stablecoin issuer Circle Group (CRCL) and Coinbase Global (COIN) should be watched ahead ofthe Republican-led ‘Crypto Week’ next week. M&A activity is increasing in 2025. Utility company AES (AES) is up in early trading as the company explores a potential sale. Meanwhile, biotech giant Merck (MRK) is buying Verona (VRNA) in a $10 billion deal.

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SoFi Select 500 ETF (SFY): ETF Research Reports

12.

Exchange-Traded Fund, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Wednesday Ahead of Fed Meeting Minutes

2025-07-09 12:45:47 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.2% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.2% higher in Wednesday's premarket activity, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes slated to release later in the day.

US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures advancing 0.2% before the start of regular trading.

US mortgage applications rose 9.4% in the week ended July 4 as lower rates supported 9% gains in both refinancing and purchase activity, Mortgage Bankers Association data showed Wednesday.

The preliminary Wholesale Inventories report will be released at 10 am ET, followed by the weekly EIA domestic petroleum inventories report at 10:30 am ET.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to post minutes of its last policy session at 2 pm ET.

In premarket action, bitcoin was up by 0.3% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 0.3% higher.

Power Play:

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) and the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) were inactive, while the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.

Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) stock was down more than 25% before the opening bell after the company said Tuesday it started a $60 million underwritten public offering of its ordinary shares.

Winners and Losers:

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) advanced 0.3%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.4% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 0.9%. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was inactive, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 0.4%.

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) shares were down 22% in recent premarket activity after the company late Tuesday swung to a fiscal Q4 non-GAAP loss amid lower revenue.

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) advanced 0.3%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was up 0.9%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was 0.6% lower.

B. Riley Financial (RILY) shares were up 2.6% pre-bell Wednesday after the company said it has amended its senior secured credit agreement with funds managed by Oaktree Capital Management to add an incremental $100 million.

Health Care

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) advanced 0.04%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) retreated 0.1% while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was inactive. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was also inactive.

Alvotech (ALVO) stock was up 2% premarket after the company said that it acquired Ivers-Lee Group, a Swiss pharmaceutical packaging specialist, to expand its assembly and packaging capabilities.

Consumer

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) gained marginally by 0.01%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund (VDC) retreated 0.3%. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) were inactive. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) were also inactive.

Starbucks (SBUX) shares were up more than 3% pre-bell after CNBC reported that the company's China unit has attracted offers from nearly 30 private equity firms with valuations ranging from $5 billion to $10 billion.

Energy

The iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was inactive, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) was up by 0.2%.

Venture Global (VG) stock was up 1.5% before Wednesday's opening bell after the company and Securing Energy for Europe said they expanded their LNG supply agreement, with the latter's subsidiary set to purchase an additional 0.75 million tonnes per annum of LNG from Venture Global's CP2 LNG project.

Commodities

Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil advanced 0.4% to $68.57 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas retreated 1.6% to $3.29 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund (USO) was 0.2% higher, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell 1.9%.

Gold futures for August retreated 0.7% to $3,295.30 an ounce on the Comex, while silver futures were down 0.2% at $36.69 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) declined 0.5%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.2% lower.

13.

Should SoFi Select 500 ETF (SFY) Be on Your Investing Radar?

2025-07-09 10:20:06 by Zacks Equity Research from Zacks

Designed to provide broad exposure to the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market, the SoFi Select 500 ETF (SFY) is a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 04/11/2019.

The fund is sponsored by Sofi. It has amassed assets over $503.25 million, making it one of the average sized ETFs attempting to match the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market.

Why Large Cap Growth

Large cap companies typically have a market capitalization above $10 billion. They tend to be stable companies with predictable cash flows and are usually less volatile than mid and small cap companies.

Growth stocks have higher than average sales and earnings growth rates. While these are expected to grow faster than the broader market, they also have higher valuations. Further, growth stocks have a higher level of volatility associated with them. They are likely to outperform value stocks in strong bull markets but over the longer-term, value stocks have delivered better returns than growth stocks in almost all markets.

Costs

Since cheaper funds tend to produce better results than more expensive funds, assuming all other factors remain equal, it is important for investors to pay attention to an ETF's expense ratio.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.05%, making it one of the least expensive products in the space.

It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.55%.

Sector Exposure and Top Holdings

Even though ETFs offer diversified exposure which minimizes single stock risk, it is still important to look into a fund's holdings before investing. Luckily, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

This ETF has heaviest allocation to the Information Technology sector--about 38.80% of the portfolio. Financials and Healthcare round out the top three.

Looking at individual holdings, Nvidia Corp (NVDA) accounts for about 12.18% of total assets, followed by Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN).

The top 10 holdings account for about 41.32% of total assets under management.

Performance and Risk

SFY seeks to match the performance of the SOLACTIVE SOFI US 500 GROWTH INDEX before fees and expenses. The Solactive SoFi US 500 Growth Index follows a rules-based methodology that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest U.S.-listed companies weighted based on a proprietary mix of their market capitalization and fundamental factors.

The ETF has added roughly 9.41% so far this year and is up about 17.21% in the last one year (as of 07/09/2025). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $90.76 and $119.23.

The ETF has a beta of 1.07 and standard deviation of 19.11% for the trailing three-year period. With about 503 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.

Alternatives

SoFi Select 500 ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Thus, SFY is a sufficient option for those seeking exposure to the Style Box - Large Cap Growth area of the market. Investors might also want to consider some other ETF options in the space.

The Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) and the Invesco QQQ (QQQ) track a similar index. While Vanguard Growth ETF has $175.21 billion in assets, Invesco QQQ has $353.52 billion. VUG has an expense ratio of 0.04% and QQQ charges 0.20%.

Bottom-Line

Retail and institutional investors increasingly turn to passively managed ETFs because they offer low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency; these kind of funds are also excellent vehicles for long term investors.

To learn more about this product and other ETFs, screen for products that match your investment objectives and read articles on latest developments in the ETF investing universe, please visit Zacks ETF Center.

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Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ): ETF Research Reports

14.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 slip as Trump stays firm on August tariff deadline, announces copper duties

2025-07-08 20:01:33 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks finished mostly lower on Tuesday as Wall Street weighed President Trump's latest threats of stiff tariffs against his three-week reprieve on the return of sweeping "Liberation Day" duties.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped slightly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped around 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose just above the flatline after all three gauges retreated in the prior session.

Stocks largely pulled back for a second day in a row after Trump moved his July 9 deadline for the resumption of "reciprocal" tariff rates to Aug. 1, giving countries three extra weeks to negotiate trade deals with the US.

On Tuesday morning, Trump said there would be no extension beyond the Aug. 1 deadline, when countries are expected to begin paying tariffs, as his administration continues sending letters to foreign officials notifying them of the rates on imported goods.

He also said he would impose a 50% tariff on copper imports to the US and threatened duties as high as 200% on pharmaceutical imports.

Thosearts of the market responded sharply to the headlines. Copper futures (HG=F) jumped more than 10%. Meanwhile, major pharmaceutical stocks, including Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), and AbbVie (ABBV), pared earlier gains after Trump said he plans to unveil a new pharmaceutical tariff program "very soon."

In corporate news, Amazon (AMZN) shares slid just over 1% as its Prime Day deals kicked off. The e-commerce giant has extended the event to four days this year, with investors on watch for signs that tariff costs are pushing up price tags.

Elsewhere, Wall Street expects a quiet week in terms of economic releases and earnings. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting are due on Wednesday, while Delta's (DAL) results on Thursday signal the return of earnings season.

15.

Inside the Fed's Quiet Signal on Where Rates Might Be Heading

2025-07-08 16:57:32 by Undercovered Deep Insights from GuruFocus.com

The Fed researchers' latest deep dive: they're using LIBOR and SOFR derivatives to plot out the odds of the fed funds rate sliding back to zero.

Think of it like reading tea leaves in the marketsby turning those contracts into daily probability curves, they can see how expectations and uncertainty shape the risk of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) again.

Here's the scoop: on May 27, the market still put about a 9% chance on rates being back at zero seven years out. If everyone's betting on higher rates, that number fallsmakes sense. But bump up the uncertainty, and poof, the ZLB odds tick right back up. It's a pattern we saw around 2018, too.

Why should you care? Because if rates ever do hit zero, the Fed's usual rate-cut toolkit is gone, and they have to lean on big, unconventional movesthink QE reboot. Even though rate forecasts are healthy now, plenty of wiggle room in those forecasts means we can't discount another ZLB run.

Oh, and just so you know where the market stands today: the U.S. 7-year note yield recently popped up to about 4.16%. That's the backdrop to all these probability playshigher yields, higher expectations, but still a nontrivial chance that zero is back on the table down the road.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

16.

Exchange-Traded Funds Higher, Equity Futures Mixed Pre-Bell Tuesday Amid Tariff Pause

2025-07-08 12:30:16 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.1% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.3% higher in Tuesday's premarket activity as US President Donald Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs.

US stock futures were mixed, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.02%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.3% before the start of regular trading.

US small business optimism declined in June to 98.6 from 98.8 in May, but remained well above the year-ago level of 91.5, according to the National Federation of Independent Business on Tuesday.

In premarket activity, bitcoin was up by 0.8% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 0.8% higher.

Power Play:

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) retreated 0.1%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) declined by 0.1%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was 0.1% higher.

HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) shares were up nearly 2% pre-bell Tuesday after the company said it mined 164 bitcoin in June, an 18% increase from the previous month's 139 BTC.

Winners and Losers:

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) advanced 0.03% while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) were inactive.

Ryanair (RYAAY) stock was up nearly 2% before the opening bell after the company said it has signed a multiyear deal with Poland's Warsaw Modlin Airport, committing to more than tripling passenger traffic from 1.5 million passengers per year to over 5 million by 2030.

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) advanced 0.4%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) gained 0.01%, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was inactive. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was inactive, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 0.7%.

JinkoSolar (JKS) shares were up more than 3% in recent premarket activity after the company said it has commissioned 21.6 megawatt-hours of energy storage systems supplied to Distributed Energy Infrastructure.

Energy

The iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was inactive, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) retreated by 0.1%.

Tidewater (TDW) stock was down 2% before the opening bell after the company said Monday it completed its previously announced private offering of $650 million in 9.125% senior unsecured notes due 2030.

Health Care

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) advanced 0.1%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) gained 0.2% while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) increased marginally by 0.04%. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was inactive.

ImmunityBio (IBRX) stock was up more than 2% premarket after the company said Monday it was granted UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency marketing authorization for Anktiva in combination with Bacillus Calmette-Guerin for the treatment of certain bladder cancer patients.

Consumer

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) was down 0.3%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund (VDC) was inactive. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) gained 0.2%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) were inactive.

Commodities

Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated 0.2% to $67.83 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas rose 1% to $3.45 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund (USO) was 0.2% lower, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) advanced 0.6%.

Gold futures for August retreated 0.4% to $3,330.10 an ounce on the Comex, while silver futures were down 0.1% at $36.87 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) declined 0.5%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.3% lower.

17.

Should Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ) Be on Your Investing Radar?

2025-07-08 10:20:06 by Zacks Equity Research from Zacks

Designed to provide broad exposure to the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market, the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ) is a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 09/25/2003.

The fund is sponsored by Fidelity. It has amassed assets over $8.08 billion, making it one of the larger ETFs attempting to match the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market.

Why Large Cap Growth

Large cap companies usually have a market capitalization above $10 billion. Considered a more stable option, large cap companies boast more predictable cash flows and are less volatile than their mid and small cap counterparts.

Qualities of growth stocks include faster growth rates compared to the broader market, as well as higher valuations and higher than average sales and earnings growth rates. Also, growth stocks are a type of equity that carries more risk compared to others. When you consider growth versus value, growth stocks are usually the clear winner in strong bull markets but tend to fall flat in nearly all other environments.

Costs

When considering an ETF's total return, expense ratios are an important factor, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive counterparts in the long term if all other factors remain equal.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.21%, making it one of the cheaper products in the space.

It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.61%.

Sector Exposure and Top Holdings

Even though ETFs offer diversified exposure that minimizes single stock risk, investors should also look at the actual holdings inside the fund. Luckily, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

This ETF has heaviest allocation to the Information Technology sector--about 50.60% of the portfolio. Telecom and Consumer Discretionary round out the top three.

Looking at individual holdings, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) accounts for about 10.90% of total assets, followed by Nvidia Corp (NVDA) and Apple Inc (AAPL).

The top 10 holdings account for about 58.03% of total assets under management.

Performance and Risk

ONEQ seeks to match the performance of the NASDAQ Composite Index before fees and expenses. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

The ETF has added about 5.90% so far this year and it's up approximately 11.72% in the last one year (as of 07/08/2025). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $60.22 and $80.95.

The ETF has a beta of 1.16 and standard deviation of 22.13% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 1023 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.

Alternatives

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Thus, ONEQ is a sufficient option for those seeking exposure to the Style Box - Large Cap Growth area of the market. Investors might also want to consider some other ETF options in the space.

The Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) and the Invesco QQQ (QQQ) track a similar index. While Vanguard Growth ETF has $175.36 billion in assets, Invesco QQQ has $352.40 billion. VUG has an expense ratio of 0.04% and QQQ charges 0.20%.

Bottom-Line

Passively managed ETFs are becoming increasingly popular with institutional as well as retail investors due to their low cost, transparency, flexibility and tax efficiency. They are excellent vehicles for long term investors.

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iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF (IWY): ETF Research Reports

18.

Should iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF (IWY) Be on Your Investing Radar?

2025-07-08 10:20:05 by Zacks Equity Research from Zacks

Designed to provide broad exposure to the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market, the iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF (IWY) is a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 09/22/2009.

The fund is sponsored by Blackrock. It has amassed assets over $13.98 billion, making it one of the larger ETFs attempting to match the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market.

Why Large Cap Growth

Large cap companies typically have a market capitalization above $10 billion. Overall, they are usually a stable option, with less risk and more sure-fire cash flows than mid and small cap companies.

Qualities of growth stocks include faster growth rates compared to the broader market, as well as higher valuations and higher than average sales and earnings growth rates. Further, growth stocks have a higher level of volatility associated with them. Compared to value stocks, growth stocks are a safer bet in a strong bull market, but don't perform as strongly in almost all other financial environments.

Costs

Investors should also pay attention to an ETF's expense ratio. Lower cost products will produce better results than those with a higher cost, assuming all other metrics remain the same.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.20%, making it one of the cheaper products in the space.

It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.42%.

Sector Exposure and Top Holdings

This ETF has heaviest allocation to the Information Technology sector--about 49.50% of the portfolio. Consumer Discretionary and Telecom round out the top three.

Looking at individual holdings, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) accounts for about 11.32% of total assets, followed by Nvidia Corp (NVDA) and Apple Inc (AAPL).

The top 10 holdings account for about 60.15% of total assets under management.

Performance and Risk

IWY seeks to match the performance of the Russell Top 200 Growth Index before fees and expenses. The Russell Top 200 Growth Index is a style factor weighted index that measures the performance of the largest capitalization growth sector of the U.S. equity market. It is a subset of the Russell Top 200 Index issuers with relatively higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth, which measures the performance of the largest capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market.

The ETF has gained about 5.11% so far this year and is up roughly 11.13% in the last one year (as of 07/08/2025). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $187.50 and $248.36.

The ETF has a beta of 1.15 and standard deviation of 21.33% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 110 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.

Alternatives

IShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Thus, IWY is a reasonable option for those seeking exposure to the Style Box - Large Cap Growth area of the market. Investors might also want to consider some other ETF options in the space.

Bottom-Line

While an excellent vehicle for long term investors, passively managed ETFs are a popular choice among institutional and retail investors due to their low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency.

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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) : Free Stock Analysis Report

19.

Stocks Slip as Trump Unveils Fresh Tariffs

2025-07-07 22:26:45 by Undercovered Deep Insights from GuruFocus.com

Markets got a bit queasy on Monday after Trump dropped some fresh tariff news. He posted on Truth Social that come August 1, the U.S. will slap a 25% duty on imports from South Korea and Japanon top of whatever celles already owe.

And if any country sides with his eye-rolling anti-American BRICS label, they'll get hit with an extra 10% tariff, no exceptions.

Unsurprisingly, that spooked traders: the S&P dipped roughly 1%, the Nasdaq echoed the slide, and the Dow fell just over a point.

Bond yields crept higher too, with the 10-year rate bumping toward 4.4% and the 2-year sitting around 3.9%.

Meanwhile, Treasury's Scott Bessent says we're in for more trade headlines over the next 48 hours, and Commerce chief Howard Lutnick confirmed the August 1 deadline is locked in.

Why the fuss? Surprise tariffs can throw a wrench into supply chains and chip away at corporate profitsespecially after last week's strong jobs print had everyone feeling upbeat. Plus, we've got Fed minutes, more central bank chatter and fresh budget data coming up, so it's easy to see why things got twitchy.

Ohand Tesla took a hit, sliding over 7% after Trump called Elon Musk's third-party ambitions ridiculous.

It's a good reminder: in today's markets, a single post can ripple through stocks, bondseven your afternoon coffee budget. Stay tunedif the next round of trade news cools things off, we may see a rebound. If not, buckle up for more bumps.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

20.

New Tariff Threats Give Market Indexes a Haircut

2025-07-07 21:57:00 by Mark Vickery from Zacks

Monday, July 7, 2025

Just when we thought it was safe to take our eye off the market… threats of new tariffs from President Trump rear their ugly heads again. We started the trading day with the understanding that the July 9th tariff pause deadline was being pushed back to August 1st to U.S. trading partners who have not yet established new trade deals (which is almost all of them). Thus, the trim off record highs we saw before the opening bell turned into a full haircut.

Markets were off session lows, with a little up-turn in the final minutes to salve the daily losses. The Dow closed -422 points, -0.94% on the day, while the S&P 500 was -49 points, -0.79%. The Nasdaq was more or less in-line, -188 points or -0.92%, while the small-cap Russell 2000, freshly entering the green once again year to date, dumped -1.58% for the session. Bond yields inched up throughout the day, from +4.36% on the 10-year and +3.88% on the 2-year to +4.39% and +3.90%, respectively.

New Trump Tariff Threats Shake Out Record Highs

Following all-time closing highs on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, President Trump has once again voiced a hard line on tariff policy, particularly against two countries in the Far East — South Korea and Japan. Without a new trade deal with the U.S. by the end of this month, an additional +25% will be slapped onto both countries. For countries such as South Africa and Malaysia, Trump has taken to Truth Social to threaten between +25-40% new tariffs.

This included a Sunday evening social media post decrying “Anti-American policies of BRICS” countries — originally Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but in recent years adding countries like Egypt, UAE, Iran and Indonesia, with invitations to Saudi Arabia and Turkiye — which would see an additional +10% tariff put on imported goods to the U.S. But as we remarked this morning in this space https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2565914/a-relaxing-week-ahead-in-the-stock-market, it is growing more difficult to ascertain the level of seriousness to such threats.

Amazon Prime Day Expands, Starts Tuesday

Originally Amazon’s AMZN answer to China’s “Singles Day” (November 11th, or 11/11), “Prime Day” has expanded from a single day of e-commerce discounts to now four full days, from Tuesday the 8th through Friday the 11th. This doubles the recent two-day event for Amazon, which last year reached a record-high $14.2 billion in sales, +11% year over year.

“Prime Day” includes more than 35 retail categories, such as home goods, electronics, beauty and fashion, and will this year offer a new wrinkle: “Today’s Big Deals” on short-term sale prices announced by top brands. BofA securities analyst Justin Post estimates more than $21 billion in Gross Merchandise Value, according to Barron’s.

Amazon shares are currently nearly $20 per share off their all-time high market levels reached in February of this year, yet well higher than the near-term trough in late April. Zacks consensus estimates for Amazon’s Q2 results are for +7.3% earnings growth and +9.5% growth on the revenue side. Amazon currently rides a 10-quarter string of earnings beats, with a trialing 4-quarter average of more than +20%. The company reports earnings roughly four weeks from now.

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21.

Stocks Slide on Trade Tensions

2025-07-07 20:42:10 by Rich Asplund from Barchart

Wall street sign in New York City with American flags and New York Stock Exchange in background by kasto80 via iStock

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Monday closed down -0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.94%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.79%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.82%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.80%.

Stocks were under pressure on Monday as trade tensions returned to the forefront, with US trading partners rushing to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration ahead of Wednesday's deadline. On Sunday, President Trump pledged to announce unilateral tariff rates on dozens of countries in the coming days. Mr. Trump also stated that countries aligning with the anti-American policies of the BRICS group of nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will face an additional 10% tariff.

More News from Barchart

Stock losses accelerated Monday afternoon when President Trump announced plans to hike tariffs on several countries, including Japan, South Korea, Laos, South Africa, Myanmar, and Malaysia, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, effective August 1. Bond yields also rose on the tariff news, with the 10-year T-note yield climbing by +4 bp to 4.39%. The higher tariffs could boost inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates.

On the positive side for stocks, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that August 1 will be the new effective date for higher tariffs, and some countries may be offered a three-week extension to negotiate. Also, the European Union (EU) and the US are moving closer to a trade agreement following a Sunday call between European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen and President Trump, according to an EU commission spokesman.

Stocks also have support after President Trump last Friday signed the reconciliation bill into law. The fiscal stimulus from the bill will be a net positive for the US economy, but the higher deficit is negative as it increases the risk of an eventual debt crisis in the United States.

Tesla closed down more than -6% to lead mega-cap technology stocks lower after President Trump criticized Elon Musk's bid to start a new political party, intensifying concerns about implications for Tesla and other companies led by Musk.

Another hurdle for stocks is the upcoming earnings season, which begins this week. Bloomberg Intelligence data show that the consensus for Q2 earnings of S&P 500 companies is for a rise of +2.8% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years. Also, only six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.

The focus of the markets this week will be on any new tariff news and if US trading partners sign trade deals ahead of Wednesday's deadline. On Wednesday, the minutes of the June 17-18 FOMC meeting will be released. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims will be released. Also, on Thursday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem and San Francisco Fed President Daly speak on the US economy and monetary policy.

Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets on Monday settled mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +1.00%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.02%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.56%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Monday closed down -9.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +3.9 bp to 4.385%. T-notes were undercut after President Trump last Friday signed his tax and spending plan into law, which will boost the US budget deficit by a total of $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the CBO, thus requiring the Treasury to sell more debt to fund the deficit. Losses in T-notes accelerated after President Trump announced plans to hike tariffs on several countries, including Japan, South Korea, Laos, South Africa, Myanmar, and Malaysia, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, effective August 1. The higher tariffs could boost inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates.

Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $119 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week, beginning with Tuesday's $58 billion auction of 3-year T-notes. T-note prices were also weighed down by negative carryover Monday from a decline in European government bond prices.

European government bond yields on Monday moved higher. The 10-year German bund yield rose +3.6 bp to 2.643%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +3.2 bp to 4.586%.

The Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index rose +4.3 to a nearly 3.50-year high of 4.5, stronger than expectations of 1.0.

Eurozone May retail sales fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m and the biggest decrease in 1.75 years.

German May industrial production unexpectedly rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.2% m/m decline.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after CEO Musk said he is forming a new political party, which sparked backlash from President Trump and raised concerns about the implications for Mr. Musk's companies.

Chip stocks were under pressure Monday and weighed on the broader market. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed down more than -5 % and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed down more than -4%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Intel (INTC), GlobalFoundries (GFS), ON Semiconductor Corp (ON), and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed down more than -2%. In addition, Micron Technology (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down more than -1%.

Webull (BULL) closed down more than -10% after securing a standby equity purchase agreement with a fund managed by Yorkville Partners that allows Webull to issue $1 billion of Class A shares at a 2.5% discount to market price over the next three years.

Stellantis NV (STLA) closed down more than -4% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, saying it expects to see a "very weak" first-half report on July 29.

Progressive Corp (PGR) closed down more than -3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.

Travelers Cos (TRV) closed down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Barclays downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.

MGM Resorts International (MGM) closed down more than -1% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of sell and a price target of $34.

WNS Holdings Ltd (WNS) closed up more than +15% after Capgemini SE agreed to purchase the company for $3.3 billion or $76.50 per share.

Phibro Animal Health Corp (PAHC) closed up more than +7% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $35.

Geo Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW) closed up more than +4% as the approval of President Trump's tax and spending bill will add billions of dollars for immigrant detention centers.

Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Bloomberg Second Measure reported sales for the company rose +4.3% in the fiscal quarter ended June 28.

GE Vernova (GEV) closed up more than +2% after UBS initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of buy with a price target of $614.

Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) closed up more than +1% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $97.

Earnings Reports (7/8/2025)

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), Kura Sushi USA Inc (KRUS), Penguin Solutions Inc (PENG).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

22.

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq retreat as Trump reignites trade tensions with flurry of letters, August deadline

2025-07-07 20:00:15 by Rian Howlett from Yahoo Finance

US stocks fell on Monday as President Trump threatened tariffs on a handful of US trading partners, including moving forward with 25% levies on imports from Japan and South Korea starting in August.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped more than 400 points, or almost 1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also backed off 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped roughly 0.9% as Tesla (TSLA) stock sank amid worries about CEO Elon Musk's plan to launch a political party.

Stocks pulled back from all-time closing highs with Trump's new tariff deadline in focus. On Monday, Trump posted letters to social media directed at the leaders of South Korea and Japan. The president said the US will impose 25% levies on imports from those countries starting on Aug. 1.

Trump subsequently posted letters to the leaders of several other countries, including South Africa and Malaysia, outlining tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%.

Meanwhile, Trump said late Sunday that any country aligning itself with the "Anti-American policies of BRICS" will face an additional 10% tariff. "There will be no exceptions to this policy," he said in a post to social media. The warning came after BRICS — a group of countries including key US trading partners China and India — criticized Trump's tariff policy at its summit at the weekend.

The moves have ramped up already-high trade tensions as nations race to clinch tariff deals ahead of Trump's self-imposed deadline of July 9, when his "pause" on steep April tariffs would go back into effect. Global markets have been bracing for that potential shock, with the US only having reached deals with the UK and Vietnam, as well as a framework toward an agreement with China.

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trump confirmed that while letters would be sent out this week informing countries of their tariff rates, those duties would not go into effect until Aug. 1.

Meanwhile, earnings are coming back into the conversation this week, with Thursday's report from Delta (DAL) serving as the unofficial kickoff to the second quarter season.

23.

Stocks Pressured Ahead of Wednesday's Tariff Deadline

2025-07-07 15:21:50 by Rich Asplund from Barchart

Inside NYSE by Orhan Akkurt via Shutterstock

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.56%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.70%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.54%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.71%.

Stocks are under pressure today as trade tensions are back in the forefront, with US trading partners rushing to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration ahead of Wednesday's deadline. On Sunday, President Trump pledged to announce unilateral tariff rates on dozens of countries in the coming days. Mr. Trump also stated that countries aligning with the anti-American policies of the BRICS group of nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will face an additional 10% tariff.

More News from Barchart

Stock losses are limited after Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that August 1 will be the new effective date for higher tariffs, and some countries may be offered a three-week extension to negotiate. Also, the European Union (EU) and the US are moving closer to a trade agreement following a Sunday call between European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen and President Trump, according to an EU commission spokesman.

Tesla is down more than -6% to lead mega-cap technology stocks lower after President Trump criticized Elon Musk's bid to start a new political party, intensifying concerns about implications for Tesla and other companies led by Musk.

Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.91%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.02%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.56%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -6 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.8 bp to 4.373%. T-notes are being undercut after President Trump last Friday signed his tax and spending plan into law, which will boost the US budget deficit by a total of $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the CBO, thus requiring the Treasury to sell more debt to fund the deficit. Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $119 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week, beginning with Tuesday's $58 billion auction of 3-year T-notes. T-note prices are also seeing negative carryover today from a decline in European government bond prices.

European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +3.5 bp to 2.642%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.6 bp to 4.570%.

The Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index rose +4.3 to a nearly 3.50-year high of 4.5, stronger than expectations of 1.0.

Eurozone May retail sales fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m and the biggest decrease in 1.75 years.

German May industrial production unexpectedly rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.2% m/m decline.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 6% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after CEO Musk said he is forming a new political party, which sparked backlash from President Trump and raised concerns about the implications for Mr. Musk's companies.

Chip stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the broader market. Marvell Technology (MRVL) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are down more than -3%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are down more than -2%. In addition, Intel (INTC), GlobalFoundries (GFS), KLA Corp (KLAC), and ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) are down more than -1%.

Webull (BULL) is down more than -11% after securing a standby equity purchase agreement with a fund managed by Yorkville Partners that allows Webull to issue $1 billion of Class A shares at a 2.5% discount to market price over the next three years.

Stellantis NV (STLA) is down more than -3% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, saying it expects to see a "very weak" first-half report on July 29.

Travelers Cos (TRV) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Barclays downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -1% after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.

MGM Resorts International (MGM) is down more than -1% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of sell and a price target of $34.

WNS Holdings Ltd (WNS) is up more than +14% after Capgemini SE agreed to purchase the company for $3.3 billion or $76.50 per share.

Phibro Animal Health Corp (PAHC) is up more than +8% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $35.

Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) is up more than +3% after Bloomberg Second Measure reported sales for the company rose +4.3% in the fiscal quarter ended June 28.

Geo Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW) are up more than +2% as the approval of President Trump's tax and spending bill will add billions of dollars for immigrant detention centers.

Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) is up more than +1% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $97.

GE Vernova (GEV) is up more than +1% after UBS initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of buy with a price target of $614.

Earnings Reports (7/7/2025)

None.

24.

Bonus MoneyMasters Podcast- Our Expert Roundtable on Stocks, Rates, Crypto, Hard Assets

2025-07-07 15:15:00 by MoneyShow

The first half of 2025 was a wild ride for investors. After a sharp market drop triggered by tariffs and global turmoil, the S&P 500 roared back with a record-setting 24% rally in just 90 days—adding over $10 trillion in value. But while stocks soared, the US dollar suffered its worst start since 1973, and hard assets like gold and Bitcoin took off.

To get more articles and chart analysis from MoneyShow, subscribe to our Top Pros’ Top Picks newsletter here.)

In this bonus MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast roundtable, top experts Carley Garner, Larry McDonald, Jason Bodner, Amber Kanwar, Merlin Rothfeld, and Paul Hickey break down what’s really driving stocks, commodities, and crypto right now — and what could be coming next.

You’ll hear why oil’s war-driven rallies keep fading, why gold and silver might be headed for a painful pullback, how money flows are pointing to more upside for tech and industrials, and why the new US stablecoin law could change crypto forever.

Whether you’re bullish or bearish, this episode delivers blunt opinions, actionable strategies, and the data you need to navigate the second half of 2025.

Reminder: Carley, Larry, Jason, Merlin, and Paul will be speaking at the 2025 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Las Vegas, scheduled for July 15-17 at Caesars Palace. Click here to register.

More From MoneyShow.com:

25.

Trade Talks on the Clock: August Tariff Reset Looms

2025-07-07 12:55:19 by Undercovered Deep Insights from GuruFocus.com

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid it out plainly on CNN: if our trading partners don't show real progress by August 1, those tariffs we pulled back in April will automatically snap back into placeno new deadline, just this is when it happens,

he said. He even hinted we might hear some big announcements in the next couple days, but wouldn't spoil the surprise.

Meanwhile, Trump's busy signing a dozen tariff letters to be sent out starting July 7think of them as move-it-or-lose-it warnings.

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with ACHR.

He's aiming to have most either paired with a deal or in the mail by July 9. They'll start to pay on August 1, he told reporters, meaning U.S. coffers could see that extra cash flow almost immediately.

Bottom line: exporters and importers face a simple choiceseal the deal or brace for that April-level rate hike. Either way, supply chains and prices might get a little bumpier before this is over.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

26.

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Monday as Investors Look Ahead to US Trade Pact Announcements

2025-07-07 12:34:33 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.2% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.3% lower in Monday's premarket activity as investors await the White House's announcement on trade pacts, while Tesla (TSLA) Chief Executive Elon Musk launched a new US political party.

US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500 Index futures down 0.3%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures retreating 0.4% before the start of regular trading.

The US Export Inspections report is due at 11 am ET, while the US 3-month bill auction and the 6-month bill auction are due at 11:30 am ET.

The US Crop Progress report is slated to be out at 4 pm ET.

In premarket action, bitcoin was up by 0.2% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 1% lower.

Power Play:

Health Care

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) retreated 0.1%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was down 0.2% and the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was 0.1% lower. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) declined by 0.2%.

Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) shares rose 16% in recent Monday premarket activity, after the company said its part A of the phase 2 Apex clinical study of anti-IL-13 antibody APG777 to treat moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis demonstrated a 71% reduction in eczema area severity index at week 16, compared to about 34% reduction for placebo.

Winners and Losers:

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) was down 0.2% and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.3% lower. The iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) retreated 1.2%. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) gained 1.9%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) declined by 0.8%.

Tesla (TSLA) stock was down 6.5% before Monday's opening bell, after the company's Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a X post that he had formed a new US political party.

Consumer

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) was up 0.2%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund (VDC) slipped marginally by 0.03%. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was flat, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) was 1.1% lower. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was down by 5.5%.

Stellantis (STLA) shares slipped 3.5% before the opening bell on Monday, after the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the automaker's trucks' brake transmission shift interlock system of certain models of 2013 to 2018 RAM vehicles are subject to further probe.

Energy

The iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was inactive, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) was down by 0.6%.

Shell's (SHEL) shares fell 3% pre-bell Monday, after the energy giant updated its Q2 guidance and said trading and optimization in the quarter is anticipated to be "significantly lower" than Q1.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) retreated 0.2%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) were inactive.

Applied Materials (AMAT) shares slipped 1.5% before Monday's opening bell, after Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded the company to neutral from buy and lowered its price target to $200 from $225.

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) lost 0.2%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was down 0.6%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was flat.

Wells Fargo (WFC) shares were down around 1% before Monday's bell, after Raymond James downgraded the bank to market perform from strong buy with a $84 price target.

Commodities

Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated 0.1% to $66.95 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas declined 3.2% to $3.30 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund (USO) was 0.4% higher, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 4.3% lower.

Gold futures for August retreated 1% to $3,310 an ounce on the Comex, while silver futures were down 2% to $36.33 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) declined 0.9%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 1.5% lower.

27.

Should Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (VOOG) Be on Your Investing Radar?

2025-07-07 10:20:07 by Zacks Equity Research from Zacks

Launched on 09/09/2010, the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (VOOG) is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to provide a broad exposure to the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market.

The fund is sponsored by Vanguard. It has amassed assets over $18.02 billion, making it one of the largest ETFs attempting to match the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market.

Why Large Cap Growth

Large cap companies usually have a market capitalization above $10 billion. They tend to be stable companies with predictable cash flows and are usually less volatile than mid and small cap companies.

While growth stocks do boast higher than average sales and earnings growth rates, and they are expected to grow faster than the wider market, investors should note these kinds of stocks have higher valuations. Additionally, growth stocks have a greater level of risk associated with them. Compared to value stocks, growth stocks are a safer bet in a strong bull market, but don't perform as strongly in almost all other financial environments.

Costs

Cost is an important factor in selecting the right ETF, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive counterparts if all other fundamentals are the same.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.07%, making it one of the least expensive products in the space.

It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.52%.

Sector Exposure and Top Holdings

ETFs offer a diversified exposure and thus minimize single stock risk but it is still important to delve into a fund's holdings before investing. Most ETFs are very transparent products and many disclose their holdings on a daily basis.

This ETF has heaviest allocation to the Information Technology sector--about 41% of the portfolio. Telecom and Consumer Discretionary round out the top three.

Looking at individual holdings, Nvidia Corp (NVDA) accounts for about 12.49% of total assets, followed by Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Meta Platforms Inc (META).

The top 10 holdings account for about 38.31% of total assets under management.

Performance and Risk

VOOG seeks to match the performance of the S&P 500 Growth Index before fees and expenses. The S&P 500 Growth Index measures the performance of large-capitalization growth stocks.

The ETF has added roughly 9.49% so far this year and was up about 17.54% in the last one year (as of 07/07/2025). In the past 52-week period, it has traded between $299.15 and $399.75.

The ETF has a beta of 1.12 and standard deviation of 20.90% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 216 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.

Alternatives

Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Thus, VOOG is a good option for those seeking exposure to the Style Box - Large Cap Growth area of the market. Investors might also want to consider some other ETF options in the space.

The Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) and the Invesco QQQ (QQQ) track a similar index. While Vanguard Growth ETF has $176.86 billion in assets, Invesco QQQ has $355.51 billion. VUG has an expense ratio of 0.04% and QQQ charges 0.20%.

Bottom-Line

An increasingly popular option among retail and institutional investors, passively managed ETFs offer low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency; they are also excellent vehicles for long term investors.

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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) : Free Stock Analysis Report

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) : Free Stock Analysis Report

28.

Investor Sentiment Flips Green on Trade Wins

2025-07-03 21:37:58 by Undercovered Deep Insights from GuruFocus.com

Bullish sentiment among individual investors jumped to 45% in the AAII survey for the week ending July 2, up from 35.1%, as tariff truce news and fresh trade deals eased fears and reignited confidence.

The latest AAII weekly poll showed bulls rising for the second straight week, while bears fell to 33.1% from 40.3% the prior week. Neutral sentiment also dipped to 21.9% from 24.7%. Participants cited improved trade dynamics: the UK-US agreement on automotive and aerospace tariffs kicked in on July 1, the Trump administration sealed a deal with Vietnam on July 2, and the US-China truce on rare-earth exports has soothed lingering tariff worries. A recent Seeking Alpha note observed that tariff-related jitters temporarily pressured the stock but that resolved negotiations restored confidence in the growth story.

Shifts in AAII sentiment often presage market turns. This upbeat swing coincides with a broader rally: the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all climbed after trade news, potentially fueling further inflows into equities. With retail investors more bullish, contrarian signals may warn of short-term overextension, but also underscore renewed faith in the US consumer's resilience.

As trade headlines calm, individual investors are leaning bullish againan important pulse check for market strategists weighing whether this optimism will translate into sustained buying or signal a near-term peak.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

29.

VOO Hits Record Highs as Jobs Data Land in Goldilocks Zone

2025-07-03 20:45:00 by Sumit Roy from etf.com

Vanguard

U.S. stocks surged to record highs Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported stronger-than-expected job growth for June.

Employers added 147,000 jobs during the month, topping economists' expectations of 106,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%, coming in below the forecasted 4.3%.

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year, a tenth of a percentage point below expectations on both counts.

Together, the data paints a picture of a labor market that’s neither too hot nor too cold—strong enough to dispel recession worries but not strong enough to rekindle inflation fears. The “Goldilocks” reading was well-received by equity markets.

VOO Hits New Record

ETFs tied to the S&P 500, like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), rose just under 1% to a fresh record following the release. VOO is now up 7.5% year to date, a sharp turnaround from its April low when it was down 15%.

The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) climbed more than 1%, bringing its year-to-date gain to over 9%. QQQ had been down 18.5% at its April trough.

While the jobs report makes an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut less likely, stock investors appear unbothered by the delay. Most would rather see solid growth and falling inflation than a rushed rate cut that signals potential trouble.

TLT Edges Down

On the other hand, bond prices fell as Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10- and 30-year yields both rising five basis points. That pushed the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) down 0.6% midday, while the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) dropped 0.4%.

Probabilities based on the pricing of fed funds futures suggest the next Fed rate cut could come in September.

30.

Exchange-Traded Funds, US Equities Higher After Midday

2025-07-03 17:09:31 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

Broad Market Indicators

Broad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV were higher. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up 1.1%.

US benchmark equity indexes are on track to end higher Thursday after the US added 147,000 jobs in June, topping expectations.

Energy

iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each added about 0.3%.

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rose 1.4%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) also advanced.

SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) added 1.3%, while iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) gained 0.6%.

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) was 1.2% higher. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) climbed 3.0%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), fell 2.9%.

Commodities

Crude oil fell 0.9%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) was down 0.6%. Natural gas dipped 1%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) shed 0.7%.

Gold slipped 0.6% on Comex, and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) lost 0.7%. Silver added 0.8%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was up 0.8%.

Consumer

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) fell 0.1%; Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) was up 0.1%, and the iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) added 0.2%.

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was up 0.7%; VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) and SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) were higher.

Health Care

Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) gained 0.2%. iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) also rose. iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) gained 0.3%.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) was 0.8% higher. Vanguard Industrials (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also up.

31.

Jobs Numbers Bring a Sigh of Relief: +147K

2025-07-03 14:34:00 by Mark Vickery from Zacks

Thursday, July 3, 2025

This morning, the final print of this latest Jobs Week has hit the tape: the Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the month of June. Market participants can breathe a sigh of relief, as the headline number has come in at +147K — above the consensus estimate of +110K and the upwardly revised +144K for May. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1%, where we were back in February — an historically healthy number for the labor market.

Particularly after the -33K jobs lost reported in yesterday’s ADP ADP private-sector payrolls, today’s stronger numbers put a cork in the narrative that the domestic labor market is unwinding. Especially at a 4.1% Unemployment Rate, it’s hard to argue there are any issues whatsoever in our current jobs data. Pre-markets moved higher on the news.

In fact, revisions to the previous two months have moved upward: May’s original print was +139K and April moved from the initial +147K to +158K in today’s revision, for total extra jobs gains over the past two months of +16K. The trailing 4-month average in jobs gains is +143K, more than enough to cover monthly retiree levels, even as it’s off the +199K in the previous 4 months.

However, on Wednesday’s ADP report we noticed a loss of -56K in Professional/Business Services in the private sector last month. We don’t see, in this morning’s BLS, a full breakdown by industry, and we see no gauge of Pro/Biz Services at all. The top industry for nonfarm payrolls in June was +73K, in Government hires (on the State & Local side; Federal Government jobs shed -7K).

In other words, only half the jobs gains from last month came from the private sector. Healthcare filled +39K positions last month, with Social Assistance +19K. Absent from this morning’s report are the usual sectors for monthly jobs gains, aside from Pro/Biz: Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities. We might speculate these figures were moderately positive across the board.

We also might speculate that this morning’s report decreases the probability that the Fed will be reducing interest rates at its next FOMC meeting mid-July. This pushes the first potential cut out to September, as the Fed takes August off. Bond yields, in immediate reaction to today’s jobs report, jumped 13 basis points (bps) on both the 10-year and 2-year t-bill.

Weekly Jobless Claims Appear to Moderate

Initial Jobless Claims for last week dropped week over week, to 233K from an upwardly revised 237K the prior month. This is also down from expectations for 240K new claims a week ago, which again had been feared to jump higher on the “weak labor market” narrative that appears to have gotten ahead of itself.

Continuing Claims is where the real worry has been over the past couple of weeks, but in today’s print it also moderates: 1.964 million is roughly in-line with the downwardly revised 1.96 million the previous week. We haven’t (yet) struck 2 million weekly longer-term jobless claims, but then again, it’s only been 6 weeks since we notched above 1.9 million and stayed there. (Two million weekly continuing jobless claims would basically change the narrative of a robust labor market.)

U.S. Trade Balance In-Line, Well Off March Lows

For more good news — if we can stand it — the U.S. Trade Deficit for May was in-line with expectations at -$71.5 billion. Obviously, it’s hard to call a number like that “good news,” but it’s a vast improvement from the March read of -$138 billion, an all-time record low. The April revision was also improved, from -$61.6 billion reported last month to -$60.3 billion. Tariff issues have yet to shake out; we’ll get a better look at our trade situation over the next few months.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

We have a shortened session today, ahead of tomorrow’s Independence Day holiday: the closing bell rings at 1 pm ET. But between now and then, we’ll see new Factory Orders for May and the final print on Services PMI from S&P and ISM. Analysts expect Factory Orders to jump back up following a negative April, while Services PMI is anticipated to be mixed, with both metrics above the 50-level determining growth from loss.

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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

32.

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Thursday Ahead of June Jobs Report

2025-07-03 12:20:12 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.2% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) advanced 0.2% in Thursday's premarket activity, ahead of the June jobs report.

US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 0.1% and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.1% before the start of regular trading.

June's employment situation report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET, alongside the international trade in goods and services report for May and the weekly jobless claims bulletin.

The S&P Global final US PMI composite for June posts at 9:45 am ET, followed by the factory orders report for May and the ISM Services Index for June at 10 am ET.

The weekly EIA natural gas report posts at 10:30 am ET, while the weekly Baker Hughes domestic oil-and-gas rig count posts at 1 pm ET.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic speaks on Thursday.

Most US markets will close at 1 pm ET on Thursday, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

In premarket action, bitcoin retreated 0.02% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) gained 0.1%.

Power Play:

Health Care

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) advanced 0.4%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was up 0.2% while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was inactive. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) advanced 0.4%.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) stock was down 25% premarket after the company said that it priced its public offering of about 14.3 million common shares and accompanying series A and B warrants at $1.75 per combination of a share and the warrants, for total proceeds of about $25 million.

Winners and Losers:

Consumer

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) was down 0.02%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund (VDC) was inactive. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was flat, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) gained 0.3%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was flat.

TripAdvisor (TRIP) shares were up 8% pre-bell after The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that investor Starboard Value has built a 9% stake in the company.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) advanced 0.1% and the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.3%, while the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.

Aduro Clean Technologies (ADUR) stock was up 3% before the opening bell after the company said it granted stock options to acquire 743,500 shares to certain members of its management, board, staff and consultants.

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) advanced 0.1%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was flat, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was flat. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was inactive, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 0.2%.

Synopsys (SNPS) shares were up more than 3% in recent premarket activity after the company said late Wednesday that the Bureau of Industry and Security of the US Department of Commerce informed the company that export restrictions related to China have been "rescinded," effective immediately.

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) advanced 0.2%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was up 0.6%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was flat.

Banco Santander (SAN) shares were down nearly 1% pre-bell Thursday after gaining 2.3% at Wednesday's close. The company said on Tuesday that it has agreed to buy Banco Sabadell's UK unit for 2.65 billion pounds ($3.62 billion).

Energy

The iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was inactive, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) was down by 0.1%.

Borr Drilling (BORR) stock was down nearly 1% before Thursday's opening bell after the company said that it has priced its offering of 50 million common shares at $2.05 per share for total gross proceeds of $102.5 million.

Commodities

Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated 0.1% to $66.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas rose 1.4% to $3.54 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund (USO) was 0.3% higher, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) advanced 1.3%.

Gold futures for August retreated 0.1% to $3,356 an ounce on the Comex, while silver futures were up 1.1% to $37.13 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) declined 0.3%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.8% higher.

33.

ETF Strategies to Follow in 2H 2025

2025-07-03 10:00:00 by Sanghamitra Saha from Zacks

Stocks staged a remarkable recovery from their April lows, closing out the first half of the year with strong gains. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posted all-time highs, thanks to fading geopolitical tensions and ebbing tariff-related fears.

There is a growingbelief among some investors that while President Trump often adopts a hard-hitting stance on tariffs, he frequently softens on his tone at the last moment. This perception has created a positive sentiment among traders, who are betting big on last-minute shifts in policy.

With trade agreements reportedly in progress with both China and the UK ahead of Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline, investors have increasingly priced in a "Goldilocks” scenario —where earnings remain strong, tariffs have minimal economic impact, and the Federal Reserve delivers interest rate cuts.

Risks Linger Beneath Optimism?

Despite the buoyant mood, analysts on Wall Street are signaling caution. Some analysts believe that tariff increases are still on the table. This could add strain to an already fragile U.S. economy marked by weakening consumer demand and global manufacturing slowdowns.

The economic data remains murky. A downward revision to Q1 GDP growth, a slight rise in PCE inflation, and continued jobless claims — now at their highest since 2021— point to softness in the labor market.

Still, markets have largely brushed off those warning signs. Encouragingly, job openings in May rose to their highest level since November 2024, and economists noted that falling inflation in sectors like housing and energy could offset the effects of higher tariffs.

Rate Cuts: A Divisive Forecast

One of the biggest open questions heading into the second half is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. President Trump has intensified pressure on the Fed to do so, but economists remain skeptical about the timing.

Despite market expectations for a rate cut by September, Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to stay put till 2026, when a new, more dovish Fed chair may succeed Jerome Powell, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

JPMorgan similarly cautioned that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates unless private payroll growth falls below 100,000 in upcoming reports. The Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a 110,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for June and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. This would keep the Fed in “wait-and-see” mode. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated the need for patience as the central bank evaluates the impact of new tariffs.

ETF Strategies to Follow in 2H 2025

Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few exchange-traded fund (ETF) strategies that could help investors in the second half of 2025.

Focus on Quality and Stability

In an environment marked by shifting policy, geopolitical risks, or unpredictable central bank messaging, quality-focused ETFs, such as iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUAL or Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF SPHQ could be good options. These ETFs offer exposure to companies with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings, and high return on equity. These firms are more likely to weather ambiguity with resilience.

Embrace Low Volatility

When volatility spikes, capital preservation often trumps growth. Low-volatility ETFs, such as iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF USMV or Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF SPLV, aim to reduce downside risk without leaving the market entirely.

Diversify Across Assets

ETFs that blend asset classes can serve as a stabilizing force. Multi-asset ETFs, like iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF AOR soften help investors amid volatile market. The AOR ETF charges 15 bps in fees and yields 2.52% annually. The AOR ETF has advanced 6.8% so far this year (as of July 1, 2025).

Dividend ETFs: All-Time Go-To Bets

Dividends should be in one’s portfolio in volatile times. FT Vest S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Target Income ETF KNG yields 8.92% annually and charges 75 bps in fees. High-dividend stocks and ETFs provide investors with avenues to make up for capital losses if that happens at all.

Gold and Inflation Hedges

Uncertainty often comes with inflation surprises or currency volatility. SPDR Gold Shares GLD is deemed the best safe haven asset right now (read: Why Gold ETFs Offer the Best Safe Haven Right Now).

AI: The New Safe Haven

The global AI market is experiencing rapid and transformative growth. The momentum is further accelerated by breakthroughs in AI robotics, autonomous systems, advanced sensors, computer vision, machine learning, natural language processing, and generative AI.

Since we do not anticipate major flare-ups in the trade war during the second half of the year, we believe the AI trade will remain in fine fettle. Any economic slowdown is unlikely to hurt AI stocks or their peripheral investment areas.

Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF IVES, Defiance Quantum ETF QTUM and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ QQQ are the best plays out here.

Hedge With Global Diversification

ETFs like Vanguard Total International Stock ETF VXUS or iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF EZU allow you to diversify globally. The ETF EZU is up 27% this year (read: International ETFs Hover Around One-Year High: 5 ETF Winners).

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): ETF Research Reports

iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL): ETF Research Reports

Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ): ETF Research Reports

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU): ETF Research Reports

iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV): ETF Research Reports

iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF (AOR): ETF Research Reports

Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV): ETF Research Reports

Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS): ETF Research Reports

Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM): ETF Research Reports

Dan IVES Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (IVES): ETF Research Reports

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) : Free Stock Analysis Report

34.

Don’t Try to Time the Market. Use This Options Strategy Instead.

2025-07-03 07:00:00 by Steven M. Sears from Barrons.com

Successful long-term investors invest in good times and bad. A better plan is to use puts to be ready to buy if stocks suddenly decline.

35.

RECS Adds $612M in Asset as Dow Jumps 400 Points

2025-07-02 22:00:00 by DJ Shaw from etf.com

Active Funds Struggle to Beat Benchmarks in First Half 2024

The Columbia Research Enhanced Core ETF (RECS) pulled in $611.8 million Tuesday, bringing its assets under management to $3.6 billion, according to data provided by FactSet. The inflows came as the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 400 points and the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%.

The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) led inflows despite that slip, attracting $993.8 million, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) collected $469 million as the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) pulled in $442.5 million, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) gained $353.6 million.

The SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) saw outflows of just over $610 million, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) lost $538.1 million. The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) experienced outflows of $528.7 million as bond yields remained under pressure.

U.S. equity ETFs gained $2.8 billion amid mixed market performance, while U.S. fixed-income ETFs lost $2.5 billion. International equity ETFs attracted $649.8 million. Overall, ETFs gained $1.2 billion for the day.

Top 10 Creations (All ETFs)

Ticker	Name	Net Flows ($, mm)	AUM ($, mm)	AUM % Change
IVV	iShares Core S&P 500 ETF	993.76	623,802.70	0.16%
RECS	Columbia Research Enhanced Core ETF	611.80	3,649.64	16.76%
QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust Series I	469.02	353,145.60	0.13%
IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	442.49	63,717.89	0.69%
XLF	Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund	353.55	50,104.32	0.71%
VTV	Vanguard Value ETF	340.24	138,527.21	0.25%
IEMG	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	322.62	95,711.49	0.34%
VT	Vanguard Total World Stock ETF	283.52	48,651.60	0.58%
AGG	iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF	247.93	129,467.35	0.19%
EMCS	Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets Climate Selection ETF	230.09	770.58	29.86%

Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs)

Ticker	Name	Net Flows ($, mm)	AUM ($, mm)	AUM % Change
BIL	SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF	-610.02	42,237.76	-1.44%
TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	-538.06	48,407.35	-1.11%
SGOV	iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF	-528.68	49,207.07	-1.07%
GLD	SPDR Gold Shares	-454.31	100,189.73	-0.45%
SCHO	Schwab Short-Term US Treasury ETF	-438.84	11,029.51	-3.98%
PDP	Invesco Dorsey Wright Momentum ETF	-408.53	1,264.70	-32.30%
REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	-383.54	3,907.20	-9.82%
IWB	iShares Russell 1000 ETF	-373.68	41,053.66	-0.91%
LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-350.58	30,248.74	-1.16%
VB	Vanguard Small-Cap ETF	-284.50	63,305.47	-0.45%

ETF Daily Flows By Asset Class

	Net Flows ($, mm)	AUM ($, mm)	% of AUM
Alternatives	150.21	10,127.58	1.48%
Asset Allocation	44.53	25,054.68	0.18%
Commodities ETFs	-376.70	218,193.58	-0.17%
Currency	185.19	151,206.45	0.12%
International Equity	649.79	1,876,088.90	0.03%
International Fixed Income	213.28	303,683.13	0.07%
Inverse	-63.79	14,120.47	-0.45%
Leveraged	101.79	144,101.18	0.07%
US Equity	2,819.84	7,110,093.27	0.04%
US Fixed Income	-2,491.57	1,704,063.77	-0.15%
Total:	1,232.56	11,556,733.02	0.01%

36.

"Jobs Week" Continues Thursday to Close Out the Week

2025-07-02 21:47:00 by Mark Vickery from Zacks

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Market indexes were almost complete up today, with only the Dow posting a -0.02% loss from yesterday’s close, -10 points. The Nasdaq grew another +0.94% on the session and the S&P 500 split the difference: +0.47%. The small-cap Russell 2000 outpaced the field, +1.30% for the day. It’s still playing catchup with the other indexes, which are all +13% over the past month.

We started today’s pre-market in the red following the worst private-sector payroll report from ADP ADP in more than two years, but that can cut both ways. While it’s never a good thing for the economy to see negative employment numbers, if, for instance, we see nonfarm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also come in negative tomorrow, that will be the biggest sign in a long time that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates for the first time this year.

There’s no guarantee this will happen. For one thing, ADP and BLS numbers rarely match up exactly in real time (although subsequent revisions pull them closer together), and as we talk about below, we’re currently expecting north of 100K new jobs for June having been filled. For another, depending on what windfalls come from the tax bill passing or inflation from pending tariff policy, it may be the Fed remains reluctant to make any moves at all.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Tomorrow

Thursday is our final trading day of the week, as Friday is July 4th — Independence Day. Thus, what would normally be released on Friday morning — particularly the Employment Situation report from the BLS — will come out Thursday morning instead.

Therefore, both Weekly Jobless Claims and the BLS report will hit the wires around the same time tomorrow — an hour before the market opens. And there is a lot at stake, particularly after today’s negative private-sector payroll report from ADP. We’ve begun to see some weakness in both of these metrics recently, most pointedly in Continuing Jobless Claims, which have crept up toward 2 million per week.

Initial Jobless Claims of 240K would be back up higher than the prior week’s 236K, but still lower than the 250K touched four weeks ago. Longer-term claims are the highest we’ve seen since November of 2021, when they were going very much in the opposite direction after the Covid pandemic wreaked (temporary) havoc on the U.S. workforce.

Nonfarm payrolls via the BLS are anticipated to reach triple digits, but not by all that much: 110K. We’ve been range-bound all 2025 so far between 100K-150K, and that looks unlikely to change. The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick up slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%, where it’s been the past three months. Wages are expected to moderate month over month but remain steady at +3.9% year over year.

Beyond these jobs numbers, we’ll also see final Services results for ISM and S&P PMI, a fresh U.S. Trade Deficit and Factory Orders. We’ll also be keeping an eye on Capitol Hill as the House tries to push through President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill,” and take note of any trade deals that may transpire ahead of the tariff-freeze expiration next week.

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37.

U.S. Private Payrolls Fall in June Shock

2025-07-02 21:08:22 by Undercovered Deep Insights from GuruFocus.com

U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly declined by 33,000 jobs in June, marking a sharp reversal from May's revised gain of 29,000 and falling short of the 103,000 consensus, according to ADP's monthly report.

Though layoffs remain scarce, a widespread hiring freeze and reluctance to replace departing workers drove the downturn, ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said, even as annual pay growth held at a robust 4.4%, down just modestly from 4.5% in May.

The services sector accounted for most of the slide with a loss of 66,000 positions, led by professional and business services (56,000) and education and health services (52,000), partly offset by strength in leisure and hospitality (+32,000) and trade, transportation and utilities (+14,000).

Meanwhile, goods producers added 32,000 jobs, with manufacturing (+15,000), construction (+9,000) and natural resources and mining (+8,000) all contributing.

Small businessesespecially those with fewer than 20 employeesbore the brunt, cutting 47,000 roles, while medium-sized firms shed 15,000 and larger employers (500+ workers) actually added 30,000 jobs. Pay increases for job changers eased slightly to 6.8% from 7.0%, underscoring persistent tightness in the labor market despite cooling hiring.

Why It Matters: The unexpected dip highlights employer caution amid economic uncertainty and suggests incoming labor data will be pivotal for the Fed's policy path.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

38.

Stocks Supported by Chip Stock Strength and Trade News

2025-07-02 15:26:19 by Rich Asplund from Barchart

View of the trading floor of New York Stock Exchange by Lev Radin via Shutterstock

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.67%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.18%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.61%.

Stock indexes today are mostly higher. Strength in semiconductor makers today is leading the broader market higher. Also, Apple and Tesla are climbing more than +2% today to lead megacap technology stocks higher. Stocks added to their gains after President Trump announced that the US had reached a trade deal with Vietnam.

More News from Barchart

However, gains in the broader market are limited by concerns that the US labor market is weakening, following the June ADP employment report, which showed that employment at US companies unexpectedly declined for the first time in more than two years. Weakness in health insurance stocks is also weighing on the overall market, led by a -38% plunge in Centene after it withdrew its 2025 guidance due to insurance market trends that differed from its initial assumptions.

The markets are awaiting a House vote on the Senate version of President Trump’s tax and spending bill. Also, trade talks are in focus ahead of the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariff implementation. Late Tuesday, President Trump said a trade deal with Japan is unlikely, so the country will most likely pay a tariff of 30%, 35%, or “whatever the number is that we determine.”

On Tuesday, the Senate passed the Republican reconciliation bill by a 51-50 vote. The bill is now being considered by the House, where a vote is expected sometime this week. Speaker Johnson said the House “will work quickly” to try to pass the bill by July 4. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US budget deficits over the next decade. The reconciliation bill has the debt ceiling hike that is necessary to avert a Treasury default when the Treasury runs out of borrowing authority on the so-called X-date, which is sometime between mid-August and late September.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +2.7% in the week ended June 27, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +0.1% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +6.5%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -9 bp to 6.79% from 6.88% in the prior week.

US June ADP employment unexpectedly fell -33,000, weaker than expectations of a +98,000 increase and the first decline in 2-1/4 years.

On the negative side for stocks is the upcoming earnings season, which begins next week. Bloomberg Intelligence data show that the consensus for Q2 earnings of S&P 500 companies is for a rise of +2.8% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years. Also, only six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research.

During this holiday-shortened week, the markets will look for additional trade and tariff news along with progress in the possible passage of President Trump’s tax bill. On Thursday, June nonfarm payrolls are expected to climb by +113,000, and the June employment rate is expected to tick up +0.1 to 4.3%. Also, June average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb +5,000 to 241,000, and May factory orders are expected to jump +8.1% m/m. Finally, the June ISM services index is expected to climb +0.7 to 50.6.

Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances at 25% for a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.65%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.09%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.56%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down by -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +4.7 bp to 4.289%.

T-notes are under pressure today due to carryover weakness in European government bonds. Also, speculation that Congress is close to passing President Trump’s tax and spending bill has sparked some weakness in T-note prices. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over the next decade, which would boost Treasury security sales to fund the deficits. Rising inflation expectations are also undercutting T-note prices, as the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate rose to a one-week high today of 2.319%.

Losses in T-notes are limited after the June ADP employment change unexpectedly declined for the first time in more than two years, a dovish factor for Fed policy. Also, the weakness in stocks today has prompted some safe-haven demand for T-notes.

European government bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 1-1/2 month high of 2.675% and is up +8.5 bp to 2.659%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 3-week high of 4.633% and is up +12.5 bp to 4.579%.

The Eurozone May unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 6.3%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 6.2%

ECB Governing Council member Centeno said the ECB “is not in a hurry” to cut interest rates further despite inflation being at its 2% target.

ECB Governing Council member Rehn said he’s “concerned about inflation being below the ECB’s target for an extended period of time” as the ECB is projecting 18 months of inflation below its goal due to US tariffs and the Eurozone economy’s struggle to expand.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 6% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Strength in semiconductor stocks today is supportive for the overall market. Marvell Technology (MRVL) and NXP Semiconductor NV (NXPI) are up more than +3%. Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Texas Instruments (TXN), ON Semiconductor (ON), Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Applied Materials (AMAT) are up more than +1%.

Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting June Shanghai deliveries rose +0.8% y/y to 71,599 units, the first increase in Chinese shipments this year.

Verint Systems (VRNT) is up more than +10% after Bloomberg News reported that buyout firm Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the company.

Cava Group (CAVA) is up more than +3% after KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of overweight and a price target of $100.

Constellation Brands (STZ) is up more than +2% after forecasting 2026 comparable EPS of $12.60 to $12.90, the midpoint above the consensus of $12.68.

Apple (AAPL) is up more than +1% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to hold from underperform.

Nike (NKE) is up more than +1% after President Trump said the US reached a trade deal with Vietnam.

Health insurance stocks are being hammered today, led by a -38% plunge in Centene (CNC) after it pulled its 2025 guidance, citing insurance market trends that differed from its assumptions and threaten $1.8 billion in revenue. Also, Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down more than -19%, and Elevance Health (ELV) is down more than -9%. In addition, Humana (HUM), Cigna Group (CI), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) are down more than -2%.

Insurance stocks are falling today. Travelers Cos (TRV) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Allstate (ALL), Chubb Ltd (CB), American International Group (AIG), Hartford Insurance Group (HIG), and Erie Indemnity (ERIE) are down more than -3%.

BrightView Holdings (BV) is down more than -13% after cutting its full-year revenue forecast to $2.68 billion-$2.73 billion from a previous forecast of $2.75 billion-$2.84 billion, below the consensus of $2.78 billion.

Oscar Health (OSCR) is down more than -14% after Barclays initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of underweight and a price target of $17.

Adobe Inc (ADBE) is down more than -4% after Rothchild & Co downgraded the stock to sell from hold with a price target of $280.

Crocs Inc. (CROX) is down more than -1% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of sell and a price target of $88.

Earnings Reports (7/2/2025)

Franklin Covey Co (FC), UniFirst Corp/MA (UNF).

39.

ADP Private-Sector Payrolls -33K, Worst in 2+ Years

2025-07-02 14:14:00 by Mark Vickery from Zacks

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Ahead of today’s opening bell, the next Jobs Week report has hit the tape, and it is not good: Automatic Data Processing ADP private-sector payrolls for June came in negative for the first time since March 2023: -33K. This is obviously notably below the +100K analysts were expecting and the downwardly revised +29K the prior month, which was the previous low in more than two years.

Goods-producing jobs held up their end, more or less: +32K last month. Services jobs in the private sector was where the weaknesses lie: -66K. This includes a major shedding of Professional/Business Services jobs, -56K, and Education/Healthcare -52K. Financials were also down -14K. On the other side, Leisure & Hospitality continued to move forward, +32K, with Manufacturing +15K.

Only large companies (more than 500 employees) managed to eke out private-sector gains in June: +30K. Small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) took it on the chin, -47K, while medium-sized firms lost -15K. The current estimate for nonfarm payrolls in tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report (normally released Friday, which this week is the 4th of July holiday) is +110K. We may see estimates begin to tick down after this morning’s dismal report.

The last time we struck a negative headline on monthly ADP, March 2023, overall economic conditions were quite different than they are right now. The Fed was a year into raising interest rates, touching +5% that month for the first time in 17 years, as the overall Inflation Rate was being wrangled down to 5.0%. Also, massive tornadoes in the South resulted in a state of emergency in Mississippi and a temporary loss of employment for many lower-wage workers.

Currently, it’s white-collar jobs that are disappearing, which may be surprising to some. The temptation to explain the sudden drop in payrolls may be to look at the White House’s massive deportation campaign of undocumented immigrants in the first half of 2025, but very few of these people are business consultants.

If we may issue a hot take from this perspective, it’s the lack of foresight due to tariff policy. Reciprocal tariff initiatives affecting almost all of the U.S. trading partners expires one week from today. We’ll see if by this time next month private-sector payrolls snap back, but that would require a major shift — either in terms of a flurry of new trade deals or a further continuance of the pause on these tariffs. If these do occur, this dip in employment will be a mere blip on the screen.

Trends do not favor this as a likely possibility, however. The trailing four-month average private-sector jobs growth now sits at a mere +51K, not even enough to cover new retirees per month. Average ADP jobs growth throughout the previous eight months was more than triple: +162K per month. For all of 2024, average job growth per month was +144K.

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40.

Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: QQQ, CoreWeave, Circle Group and Morgan Stanley

2025-07-02 13:32:00 by Zacks Equity Research from Zacks

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – July 2, 2025– Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ, CoreWeave CRWV, Circle Group CRCL and Morgan Stanley MS.

Bull Market Summer: 6 Reasons Wall Street Rally Continues

With the first half of the year in the books, bulls have regained control of Wall Street. Below are six reasons that bulls will remain in control into the summer:

Stocks are Entering an Election Cycle Seasonality Sweet Spot

Stock market seasonality is the practical study of how specific times of year often lead to repeatable patterns that traders and investors can use to gain an edge in the stock market. Seasonality was popularized Yale Hirsch, who published groundbreaking research on seasonality and cycles and founded the wildly popular "Stock Trader's Almanac." Hirsch not only examined the calendar; he took his research a step further and illustrated the often-repeated and predictable patterns associated with the four-year presidential cycle.

While seasonality may sound like voodoo to new investors, the results speak for themselves. Over the past few years, election cycle seasonality has been dead on. For instance, election cycle seasonality has warned investors that the first quarter of the presidential cycle (Q1 2025) tends to be weak. Sure enough, the S&P 500 declined by 4.3%, and that's after rallying off the lows. The good news is that seasonality tends to shift after Q1 as we have witnessed. July, during the first year of the presidential cycle, is the strongest month on average.

Investors Don't Believe the Market Rally Yet

The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF printed fresh all-time highs last week. However, those headlines were not on many investors' bingo cards during the tariff market mayhem of early 2025. Despite the face-ripping market rally off the lows, investors remain unconvinced that the bull market will continue.

The AAII Sentiment Survey gauges the opinions of individual investors on where the market is heading in the next six months. Historically, the average number of bulls outweighs the average number of bears. However, the most recent AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 35.1% of respondents are bullish while more than 40% are bearish – a bullish sign for contrarian investors.

IPO Market Reborn in 2025

For the past three years, the number of IPOs has been stagnant. Often, new companies have decided to avoid going public due to regulations and the macroeconomic environment, or have waited too long to go public, resulting in lower stock prices. However, in 2025, the IPO market has performed a 180-degree turn, and several companies have had successful debuts, including AI juggernaut CoreWeave and stablecoin king Circle Group.

The 2025 IPO revival is a good omen for Wall Street, as IPOs are the lifeblood of the market, offering new and innovative growth opportunities for investors and signaling a risk-on appetite on Wall Street.

Interest Rates on the Horizon

Fed-driven liquidity is one of the most critical catalysts that savvy investors track. A 'dovish' Fed (low-interest rate policy) environment can drive stocks higher, while a 'hawkish' Fed (high-interest rate policy) can bottle up stocks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has received considerable criticism from both sides of the political aisle for maintaining interest rates at elevated levels recently. However, Morgan Stanley predicts that this will change soon, forecasting seven rate cuts in 2026.

Geopolitical & Tariff Uncertainty is Removed

Historically, Wall Street hates uncertainty. The two biggest uncertainties currently are geopolitical tensions and the ongoing tariff negotiations. On the geopolitical front, President Trump was able to successfully negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Iran in the Middle East, lowering the temperature on escalation concerns. Meanwhile, Trump trade advisor Kevin Hassett stated in an interview last weekend that several trade deals are nearly finalized, and there are around 20 that are in the final innings.

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

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41.

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Mixed Pre-Bell Wednesday Ahead of Looming Tariff Deadline

2025-07-02 12:40:37 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) edged 0.03% higher and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was down 0.1% in Wednesday's premarket activity as investors remain cautious ahead of the looming July 9 tariff deadline.

US stock futures were also mixed, with S&P 500 Index futures flat, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.2% before the start of regular trading.

US mortgage applications rose 2.7% in the week ended June 27 as lower rates drove a 7% increase in refinancing and a slight gain in purchase activity, Mortgage Bankers Association data showed Wednesday.

ADP's monthly measure of private payrolls showed a 33,000 decrease in June, compared with expectations compiled by Bloomberg for an increase of 98,000 jobs.

The weekly EIA petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 am ET.

In premarket activity, bitcoin was up by 2.1% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 2.2% higher.

Power Play:

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) retreated 0.2%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.4% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 0.9%. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was inactive, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) declined by 0.3%.

Verint Systems (VRNT) shares were up nearly 8% in recent premarket activity after Bloomberg News reported the company is in discussions to be acquired by private-equity firm Thoma Bravo.

Winners and Losers:

Health Care

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) slipped marginally by 0.01%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was down 0.1% while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) and the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) were inactive.

ArriVent BioPharma (AVBP) stock was down 5% premarket after the company said late Tuesday it priced a $75 million offering, issuing about 2.5 million shares at $19.50 apiece and, in lieu of common stock to certain investors, pre-funded warrants to purchase up to roughly 1.4 million shares.

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) advanced 0.5%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was up 1.2%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was 1.4% lower.

Hut 8 (HUT) shares were up 4.7% pre-bell after the company said Wednesday that its four natural gas-fired power plants in Ontario received five-year capacity contracts from the Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator.

Energy

The iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was inactive, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) was up by 0.9%.

Borr Drilling (BORR) stock was up more than 3% before Wednesday's opening bell after the company said it has secured new contract commitments for four of its premium jack-up rigs, with a total estimated contract revenue of more than $129 million.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) advanced 0.2%, the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.4%, while the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.

Redwire (RDW) stock was up more than 2% before the opening bell after the company said it has completed the first deployment test for one of its Roll-Out Solar Arrays for the lunar Gateway's Power and Propulsion Element.

Consumer

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) was up 0.2%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund (VDC) gained 0.4%. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) retreated 0.2%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was 0.5% higher.

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) shares were down 1.7% pre-bell. The company's Taobao online shopping platform said it is offering 50 billion Chinese renminbi ($6.98 billion) of subsidies over the next 12 months to help consumers and merchants.

Commodities

Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 1.3% to reach $66.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas declined 0.4% to $3.40 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund (USO) was 1% higher, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) declined by 0.2%.

Gold futures for August advanced 0.1% to $3,352 an ounce on the Comex, while silver futures were up 0.3% at $36.49 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gained 0.1%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.6% higher.

42.

Stock market today: Dow jumps, Nasdaq slides as Trump tax bill sails through Senate

2025-07-01 20:03:49 by Amalya Dubrovsky from Yahoo Finance

US stocks were mixed on Tuesday as President Trump's massive budget bill passed in the Senate and Wall Street watched for progress on trade talks.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed down 0.1%, pulling back from a record close after finishing above 6,200 for the first time on Monday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell around 0.7%, with Tesla (TSLA) stock sliding 5% as CEO Elon Musk's feud with Trump flared up again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose about 1%, largely led by a pop in healthcare stocks including United Healthcare (UNH), which rose 4.5%.

Senate lawmakers voted 50-50, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie, to pass Trump's signature tax and spending bill, racing to meet the president's desired July 4 deadline. The bill now goes back to the House, which will vote on the Senate's changes.

Republicans wrangled over the bill's measures overnight, including one amendment that passed with strong bipartisan support: A strike-down of the ban on state-level AI regulation. They also ended up slightly softening a phase out of clean-energy tax credits.

Another looming deadline has prompted the US to scale back Trump's push for full-blown "reciprocal" deals with trading partners, the Financial Times reported. Instead, officials are racing to find narrower agreements before July 9, when the president's sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs are set to resume.

Meanwhile, investors closely watched commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and labor market data as debate intensifies over when the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates.

Jerome Powell spoke about the Fed's policy stance at an ECB forum in Portgual on Tuesday, fresh from another Trump attack pushing the Federal Reserve chair to slash interest rates to 1% — a huge 250-point reduction. Powell remarked that tariffs are causing the central bank to take its time before cutting interest rates, but he said the US economy remains healthy overall.

Fresh data Tuesday showed job openings rose more than expected in May. The hiring and quits rates remain near decade lows, reflecting what economists have described as a labor market in "stasis."

43.

Fed Cut Odds Surge After Powell's ECB Remarks

2025-07-01 19:30:10 by Undercovered Deep Insights from GuruFocus.com

The odds of a 25 bp rate cut at the Fed's July 30 FOMC meeting jumped to 23.3% from 18.6% yesterday and last week, after Chair Jerome Powell told the ECB forum in Portugal he can't say if July is too early to ease policy.

Markets pushed fed funds futures accordingly, with short-dated contracts repricing a nearly one-in-four chance of a cut.

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Sign with META.

Powell stressed that any move will be data-dependent, pointing to incoming inflation readings and labor metrics as key drivers.

That dovetails with recent cooling in headline PCE and a pullback in job gains, even as the unemployment rate hovers near 3.7%.

Nonetheless, President Trump's handwritten letter pressuring Powell to cut rates to save the U.S. a fortune has invited political noise, to which Powell responded the Fed must remain independent and focused on its dual mandate.

Treasury yields slid modestly after Powell's comments, with the 2-year note down 5 bps to 4.67% and the 10-year off 3 bps to 4.08%, easing some pressure on rate-sensitive sectors. Bank stocks outperformed today's broader market as traders priced in a greater chance of cheaper funding costs.

Why It Matters: A material shift in cut odds before the July meeting underscores how market expectations hinge on every Fed word and economic release.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

44.

Nasdaq 100 Takes Breather After Job Openings Surprise

2025-07-01 18:42:01 by Undercovered Deep Insights from GuruFocus.com

May's JOLTS report showed 7.769 million job openings in Maywell above the 7.300 million economists expected and up 5.1% from April's revised 7.395 millionunderscoring that companies are still hungry for workers even as inflation worries linger.

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with NVDA.

Meanwhile, layoffs dipped to 1.601 million, down 12% from April's 1.789 million revision and below the 1.831 million forecast, suggesting firms are reluctant to let staff go despite tariffs and slowing manufacturing orders.

That strong labor backdrop didn't stop the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) from pulling back 1.15% today after rallying more than 4% over the past month and hitting six fresh record highs last week.

Rising Treasury yields played a part: the 10-year jumped 3 bps to 4.10% and the 2-year climbed 4 bps to 4.72%, a move that tends to weigh on long-duration tech names like software and chipmakers.

But Morgan Stanley analysts see this as profit-taking, not a broader risk-off shift, noting NDX still sits comfortably above its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. Investors can treat today's dip as a healthy breather in an extended tech rallyand a reminder that every strong jobs print keeps Fed rate decisions front and center.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

45.

Exchange-Traded Funds, US Equities Mixed After Midday

2025-07-01 17:10:36 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

Broad Market Indicators

Broad-market exchange-traded fund IWM was up while IVV fell. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was down 0.7%.

US equity indexes traded mixed while most government bond yields rose after midday Tuesday.

Energy

iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each added about 0.6%.

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) fell 0.7%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) were also lower.

SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) added 0.3%, while iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) shed 0.2%.

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) was 0.3% higher. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) gained 0.4%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), eased 0.3%.

Commodities

Crude oil gained 0.9%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 1%. Natural gas dropped 1.8%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) lost 1.6%.

Gold rose 1.4% on Comex, and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) advanced 1%. Silver added 0.8%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.3% higher.

Consumer

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) climbed 1.2%; Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) also rose 1.2%, and the iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) added 0.9%.

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was up 0.7%; VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) and SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) were higher.

Health Care

Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) added 1.3%. iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) were also higher. iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) gained 1.1%.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) was up 0.4%. Vanguard Industrials (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) also rose.

46.

Plenty of Data to Start 2nd Half of 2025

2025-07-01 14:21:00 by Mark Vickery from Zacks

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

The first half of calendar 2025 (1H25) ended yesterday at record highs on the major stock market indexes, but early trading ahead of the first session of 2H25 is giving some of these gains back. As investors clear the sleep from their eyes, we see a giant tax bill still being decided on in the Senate, little progress on trade deals ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, and pending jobs numbers that have shown a bit of unraveling in the past weeks and months.

Expectations are still favorable for passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which makes permanent the corporate tax cuts passed during President Trump’s first term in 2017, even as the CBO and others project more than $3 trillion added to the national debt over the next decade. Assuming the bill passes the Senate today, it then goes back to the House for re-passage, as several changes had been made to the original House bill. Trump anticipates signing this bill into law on the 4th of July, Friday.

While only an outline of a trade deal with the UK has been reached since Trump pressed pause on his reciprocal tariff initiatives, reports are the EU and Japan are in detailed talks about new trade deals with the U.S. The White House also opened the door to re-working a deal with Canada, the U.S.’s #1 trading partner.

Employment numbers are expected to bounce back on tomorrow’s private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing ADP, but only to around 100K or so. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are currently estimated around 110K. The good news is that these levels would be enough to make up for the amount of retiring Baby Boomers per month. The bad news? There is little room for error on the downside.

All that said, a weakening labor market might provide a spark in one respect: the harbinger for lowering interest rates by the Fed. After coming down 100 basis points (bps) in 2024, the Fed has kept the 4.25-4.50% level intact through the first half of 2025. But with half of the Fed’s dual mandate fostering full employment, a downward slide in the labor market might finally pry loose a series of rate cuts, which would potentially unlock long-suffering industries, such as housing.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

After the opening bell, there will be plenty of data for market participants to react to: final S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, Construction Spending for May and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), also for May. While the manufacturing data is expected to stay relatively flat month over month, construction is projected to improve, albeit still at -0.1%.

Its the JOLTS data that kicks off “Jobs Week” this week, although it does being results from a month in arrears from the private-sector and U.S. government payroll reports later this week. Analysts expect another slight downturn to 7.3 million job openings, down from the jump to 7.39 million in April. We’re still well off the peak levels of the year — north of 8 million — with the all-time high 12.1 million back in March of 2022.

One thing to keep note of is the Professional & Business Services sector. While the last report showed +171K openings for the month, private-sector payrolls from ADP a month ago showed Professional & Business Services losing -17K positions in May. For sure, this is merely one industry, but it may provide some insight into business spending among good-paying white-collar jobs.

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Morgan Stanley (MS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

47.

Bull Market Summer: 6 Reasons Wall Street's Rally Continues

2025-07-01 13:00:00 by Andrew Rocco from Zacks

With the first half of the year in the books, bulls have regained control of Wall Street. Below are six reasons that bulls will remain in control into the summer:

Stocks are Entering an Election Cycle Seasonality Sweet Spot

Stock market seasonality is the practical study of how specific times of year often lead to repeatable patterns that traders and investors can use to gain an edge in the stock market. Seasonality was popularized Yale Hirsch, who published groundbreaking research on seasonality and cycles and founded the wildly popular “Stock Trader’s Almanac.” Hirsch not only examined the calendar; he took his research a step further and illustrated the often-repeated and predictable patterns associated with the four-year presidential cycle.

While seasonality may sound like voodoo to new investors, the results speak for themselves. Over the past few years, election cycle seasonality has been dead on. For instance, election cycle seasonality has warned investors that the first quarter of the presidential cycle (Q1 2025) tends to be weak. Sure enough, the S&P 500 declined by 4.3%, and that’s after rallying off the lows. The good news is that seasonality tends to shift after Q1 as we have witnessed. July, during the first year of the presidential cycle, is the strongest month on average.

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Image Source: Brown Technical Insights, Optuma

Investors Don’t Believe the Market Rally Yet

The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) printed fresh all-time highs last week. However, those headlines were not on many investors’ bingo cards during the tariff market mayhem of early 2025. Despite the face-ripping market rally off the lows, investors remain unconvinced that the bull market will continue. The AAII Sentiment Survey gauges the opinions of individual investors on where the market is heading in the next six months. Historically, the average number of bulls outweighs the average number of bears. However, the most recent AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 35.1% of respondents are bullish while more than 40% are bearish – a bullish sign for contrarian investors.

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Image Source: AAII

The IPO Market is Reborn in 2025

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Interest Rates are on the Horizon

Fed-driven liquidity is one of the most critical catalysts that savvy investors track. A ‘dovish’ Fed (low-interest rate policy) environment can drive stocks higher, while a ‘hawkish’ Fed (high-interest rate policy) can bottle up stocks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has received considerable criticism from both sides of the political aisle for maintaining interest rates at elevated levels recently. However, Morgan Stanley (MS) predicts that this will change soon, forecasting seven rate cuts in 2026.

Geopolitical & Tariff Uncertainty is Removed

Risk-on Assets Underscore Animal Spirits

Another risk-on sign is that momentum stocks, such as SoundHound AI (SOUN), BigBear.AI (BBAI), and Sofi Technologies (SOFI) are attracting investor interest.

Bottom Line

As Wall Street heads into the summer months, six powerful tailwinds line up, suggesting that the bulls are well-positioned to maintain their grip on Wall Street.

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SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): ETF Research Reports

48.

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Tuesday Amid Concerns Over Fiscal Plan, Looming Tariffs

2025-07-01 12:43:04 by MT Newswires from MT Newswires

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.2% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.2% lower in Tuesday's premarket activity amid internal GOP debates on US President Donald Trump's fiscal plan and looming tariff concerns.

US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500 Index futures down 0.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures retreating 0.3% before the start of regular trading.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is slated to discuss monetary policy at the European Central Bank's annual forum in Portugal at 9:30 am ET.

The S&P Global final US manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:45 am ET, followed by the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the ISM manufacturing index for June, and the construction spending bulletin for May at 10 am ET.

In premarket activity, bitcoin was down by 1.2% and the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 4.7% lower.

Power Play:

Health Care

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) retreated marginally by 0.04%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was down 0.6% while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) rose 1.7%. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was flat.

Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) stock was down more than 12% premarket after the company said late Monday it has priced an underwritten public offering of about 24.2 million shares at $8.25 each for expected gross proceeds of $200 million.

Winners and Losers:

Consumer

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) was flat, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund (VDC) was up 1.2%. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) lost 0.8%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) were inactive.

Tesla (TSLA) shares were down more than 5% pre-bell Tuesday as the feud between President Donald Trump and Chief Executive Elon Musk escalated. Reuters reported that the EV maker's June sales fell for a sixth straight month in Sweden and Denmark.

Industrial

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) declined by 0.02% while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.2% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.

MSC Industrial Supply (MSM) stock was up more than 3% before the opening bell after the company reported higher-than-expected fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings and net sales.

Technology

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) retreated 0.2%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.1% lower, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was flat. Among semiconductor ETFs, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was up 0.8%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) declined by 0.5%.

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) shares were up 2% in recent premarket activity after the company said it completed its $400 million "at-the-market" equity offering.

Energy

The iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was inactive, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) was up by 0.1%.

Innovex International (INVX) stock was down more than 1% before Tuesday's opening bell after the company said it has completed the divestment of its Subsea Tree product line to Trendsetter Engineering through an all-cash transaction.

Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) retreated 0.2%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was down 0.4%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was 0.6% higher.

Commodities

Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 0.8% to reach $65.63 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas declined 0.2% to $3.45 per 1 million British Thermal Units. United States Oil Fund (USO) was 1.1% higher, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell by 0.7%.

Gold futures for August advanced 1.6% to $3,360.80 an ounce on the Comex, while silver futures were up 1.5% at $36.11 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose 1.2%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.9% higher.

49.

ETF Asset Report of June 2025

2025-07-01 10:50:00 by Sanghamitra Saha from Zacks

Wall Street posted solid gains in June, with the S&P 500 rising 4.4%, the Dow Jones up 3.66% and the Nasdaq climbing 6% over the past month (as of June 27, 2025). The tech boom mainly led to the rally.

The month was marked by geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, which pushed oil prices higher. However, a ceasefire later in the month helped calm markets. The United States Oil Fund USO jumped 9% over the past month (as of June 27, 2025), reflecting the surge in crude prices.

Mixed Data

U.S. inflation ticked up to 2.4% in May, while Q1 GDP contracted by 0.5% — the first decline in three years. Retail sales also fell for the second straight month, reflecting weak consumer demand amid trade uncertainty.

Trump’s Moves and Fed Tensions

Trump's trade deal with China lifted sentiment, but his clash with Fed Chair Powell over rate cuts added tension. Among corporate winners, Coinbase jumped 42% thanks to its stablecoin ambitions and crypto momentum, while NVIDIA rose 13% on strong earnings.

Against this backdrop, below we highlight the ETFs that fetched and lost sizable assets in the month of June.

S&P 500 & Nasdaq Top

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV and Invesco QQQ QQQ hauled in $5.63 billion and $3.59 billion in assets, respectively. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY witnessed inflows of $2.93 billion.

Bitcoin Gains Assets

iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT attracted about $4.57 billion. Bitcoin has been an area to watch lately, given the rise in cryptocurrency prices. After suffering for several weeks amid tariff-related uncertainty, Bitcoin started gaining momentum in May. Although the price of Bitcoin was flat in June, the ETF IBIT continued to rake in assets.

Gold Wins As Well

SPDR Gold Shares ETF GLD amassed about $3.39 billion in assets in June as the safe-haven demand for the metal brightened amid Israel-Iran tensions.

U.S. Long-Term Treasury Loses Assets

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT lost about $3.1 billion in assets in June. The U.S. long-term bond market faced pressure in the early phase of 1H, along with equities. Fears of China's treasury selling, inflation risks amid trade war, chances of a less-dovish Fed, and basis trade unwind hit the bond market in early April.

Moody's has also downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch, citing concerns over the country’s ballooning $36-trillion debt burden. Moreover, equities surged in June, making treasuries even dull.

Small-Caps Under Pressure

iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM lost about $3 billion in assets as sentiments are still not strong enough to support volatile and risky investing zones like small caps. The U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sharper decline than the second estimate of a 0.2% drop and the first quarterly contraction in three years. Since small-cap stocks are closely linked to the domestic economy, small-cap ETFs like IWM have reasons to underperform.

Dow Jones Underperforms

The Dow Jones saw about $1.34 billion in assets gushing out of the fund. Within the three key U.S. indexes, the Dow Jones underperformed the other two. The Dow Jones is a bit value-centric than its other two peers — the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Investors seemed to be more interested in high-growth ETFs.

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iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): ETF Research Reports

United States Oil ETF (USO): ETF Research Reports

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV): ETF Research Reports

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).