economy

Economy: A Negative Yield Curve Means A Big Trouble

September 21, 2022, 11:21 am EDT A Negative Yield Curve Means A Big Trouble When short-term yield (2-year treasury) pays higher interest than a longer-term yield (10-year treasury), it means big troub...

Economy: Global Economic Slowdown

September 16, 2022, 10:52 am EDT Global Economic Slowdown Global economic slowdown or recessions seems unavoidable. FedEx Corp (FDX) tumbled -22% after the warnings, a wake-up call for the coming trou...

Economy: Deteriorated Job Data

August 31, 2022, 4:33 pm EDT Deteriorated Job Data August private ADP payroll data showed a significant decline compared to June. It was only about half or 132K in August than a prior month 268K as sh...

Economy: Fed Hawkish View

August 26, 2022, 11:54 am EDT Fed Hawkish View Fed chairman Jerome Powell gave a hawkish statement after the Jackson Hole, Wyoming annual meeting. His determination to bring down the 40+ years inflati...

Economy: Improved Inflation Data 

August 11, 2022, 12:34 am EDT Improved Inflation Data  July Consumer Price Index (CPI) reduced to 8.5% where it was off from the peak of 9.1%. The stock market cheered with DJIA +1.45%, S&P 500 +1...

Economy: Resilient Jobs Report

August 5, 2022, 1:14 pm EDT Resilient Jobs Report A surprisingly strong July non-farm payroll shows that the US economy is more resilient than expected.  Payrolls increased 528K which surpassed the es...

Economy: Recession or Not Recession, That’s the Question

Recession or Not Recession, That’s the Question Does it matter if we call it a recession or not? That’s a good question.  Though there is no global consensus on the definition of a recession, two cons...

Economy: Inverted Yield Curve 

July 7, 2022, 11:48 pm EDT Inverted Yield Curve  An inverted yield curve means that the rates of 10-Year Treasury minus 2-Year Treasury (T10Y2Y) become negative as shown. Usually, it hints coming rece...

Economy: Recession Possibility

June 22, 2022, 11:04 pm EDT Recession Possibility “Recession possibility” is the price to quench inflation as Fed chairman Jerome Powell mentioned today. In fact, we think the recession is not a possi...