January 7, 2022, 11:18 pm EST
Top-out of the Job Data
US Bureau of Labor Statistics released December 2021 job data where payroll employment rises by 199,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 3.9% as shown. Although this unemployment rate seemed to be near the lowest level before the pandemic started, the new jobs 199K is far less than the expected 400K.
In fact, given the rising wages, 4.7% and 4.5 million people quit their jobs in November 2021 with 10.6 million available jobs, we consider job markets are near topping out. Sometimes, it may not be good news if it is too good to be true.
The main reason that the stock market did not cheer with this news is that most people prepare for what would come next. Yes, it is the top-out of job markets, housing markets, stock markets, and cryptomarkets.
The outcome of money-printing and low-interest rates caused hyperinflation and record-high housing markets. Please note that the Kazakhstan riots is triggered by the rise in fuel prices. It indicates that the world feels uneasy about the rising commodities in recent years.
Therefore, we consider that the job data could reveal a top-out signal for the stock market.